Knowing when to bail on top pair
One thing that I'm sure ALL of us have come up against is getting taken down hard when we have top pair and someone else has a set or two pair. I have been working on trying to improve on this for a couple of years now and have my own metric for getting out at the right time, but I would love to hear what others use as a "rule of thumb" that triggers them to fold.
In my case, I analyzed a number of previous hands where I hit top pair and realized that a common denominator is that when there is a raise on the flop or the turn that is 200X the SB, then a single pair is almost never good. So let's say I open with AK and the flop come A 10 9 rainbow. I c-bet and then get reraised to $200 in a 1/3 game, then my anecdotal findings are that this person has hit A 10, 10 9 or maybe they have a set of 9s. It is amazing how accurate it has been in that regard. I deviated from it last night, but only because the villain did something preflop that screamed he was bluffing. I had 8c8s in a $5 auto-straddle UTG. It folds all the way around to the SB who simply completes it, BB also adds $2 to stay in and I bump it to $35. SB pretty quickly raises to $130 and BB gets out of the way. I thought the player might be a bit tilted because earlier I kept getting cards when he was raising and I thought this might be a frustration-raise because it was soooo overbet. Bets like this don't want to be called so I called it. Flop came 2c 7c 10c. He then goes to $250. I look at him and tell him point blank that, this is a tough sell and I call. Turn card is 6h and he shoves a remaining $750 into the pot. At that point I turn my cards over and show that I'm one club from a flush along with a gutter ball and tell him that his story made no sense and call after a few minutes. He didn't show but folded and left fast.
So there are definitely exceptions like that in my system, but I would really like to know if anyone has some other exploitative triggers that are set off to help alert them when their top pair is behind.
12 Replies
You have rediscovered the BalugaWhale Theorem.
seems like a thinly veiled brag post
"When facing proportionately large bets, consider folding the weaker part of your range".
"Thursday's bluff is Friday's dinner."
Hi, Iām Troy McClure. You may know me from threads like Limping From Up Front and How To Play Ace King. Today Iād like to talk to you about folding one pair to a turn raise.
Geez...rough crowd out there! Sorry if some of you aren't doing so well at your respective games. I'm asking a very serious question and if I get one good answer it's worth wading through the lame sarcasm.
Venice10 & Werebeer, both are helpful, the Baluga Whale Theorem in particular. My understanding with that however is it only applies to turn bets. Also, it doesn't specify an amount. Using my own method, I go with 200X the SB and full pot bet on the flop and 1.5X pot on the river, whichever is larger. I find that an easy way to think about it.
Does anyone else have a unique method that they use for this situation?
I'm asking a very serious question and if I get one good answer it's worth wading through the lame sarcasm.
Here's a very serious answer to your very serious question: "Trying to come up with a simple axiom to make difficult poker decisions is a fool's errand."
P.S. Keep insulting those who are clearly better players than you. I'm sure it will only bring good things to your life.
Here's a very serious answer to your very serious question: "Trying to come up with a simple axiom to make difficult poker decisions is a fool's errand."
P.S. Keep insulting those who are clearly better players than you. I'm sure it will only bring good things to your life.
Wow...this is what I mean. Thank goodness pioneers throughout history ignored assertions like that when it applies to anything. Relative to poker, the Beluga Whale Theorem and Zeebo's Theorem run EXACTLY counter to what you just stated. They are simple and they are applied to difficult decisions. Such fools they are to have come up with that nonsense, right?
As for insulting better players than myself, I said that there's no reason for unwarranted sarcasm. Does that seem strange to you? In my experiences, those sorts of statements are typically from angry players who aren't doing very well. I'm sorry if it hits too close to home, but look at the thread buddy.
I think in a lotta games against a lotta players, we can actually go even one nitty step further than folding TP to a raise (which is pretty standard against most, imo)... we should often consider folding to a single bet, especially on later streets, especially multiway, especially if we've been driving the action, especially if we're seen as nitty.
FWIW, there's an Ignore List in your settings which you can add posters too. AF is on mine and he's been called out a few times by other posters as being fairly rude / condescending, you simply don't have to deal with him if you don't want to.
GcluelessNLnoobG
I think in a lotta games against a lotta players, we can actually go even one nitty step further than folding TP to a raise (which is pretty standard against most, imo)... we should often consider folding to a single bet, especially on later streets, especially multiway, especially if we've been driving the action, especially if we're seen as nitty.FWIW, there's an Ignore List
Hey GG, thanks for input. Yes, those other factors are great observations. Y'know, I've known that internally, but you just articulated it. When someone does it with more than player in the pot and when your image is tight to nitty, then it's amplified. A great nugget for the notes!
You see, this is what I mean about good, constructive feedback which is why we're all here. With AF, I don't have him on my ignore list because I don't feel that little boys like him should be encouraging others to be like that.
Speaking of which, AF, your comment that the Baluga Theorem is for beginners is waaaay off base. That's like saying Newton's Laws are worthless because Einstein came along. Are you playing with pros who are all using GTO approaches or are the majority of people here playing lower/mid-stakes? Read this other 2 + 2 thread or look it up elsewhere and the overall consensus is that it is still extremely relevant. There is NO question in my mind now that you are not even a breakeven player. Anyone with this much internal anger has "bad beat" written all over them. Look...if things are not working for you, try something different! Remember what the definition of insanity is...doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. If you want things to be different, then you have to change you. You can do it if you try! :-)
