KK IP vs house whale

All in. Sorry he had JJ.

3bet to 100 if he's opening strong ranges + whale.

Flop pot or overbet.
Then turn shove.

I would go larger with 3!, but not nearly 100. Would size so 1/2 pot to 3/4 pot shove on river.

GRUNCH:

PRE - The 3B to $50 seems fine, but I wouldn't hate a slightly larger size, like $60 or even $75 when we know V doesn't like to fold.

FLOP - Since we know V likes to c-bet full pot, he probably won't think it's strange if we bet full pot, so that's what I'd do here.

TURN - I like this bet size. V may want to raise off his 4Xcc combos or start a bluff when we take this size.

RIVER - Hmmmm...if he's tank-folding weak pairs when we bet 3x pot, it's hard to think he's folding top pair or 88-TT here if we just jam for pot. If we've shown him any bluffs, or if anyone else has shown him a bluff recently, I'd think he'd be less likely to fold to a jam.

Sizings are fine, maybe a little bigger pre. Jam river, what else can you do?

Result:

Don't know if he calls with 55. He's a whale, but you are representing JJ-AA with the 3! and bet/bet. But have to bet the river. What are we losing to? Only to a boat or quads: JJ/77/44/22, and he doesn't always just x/c all the way with those. There are no straights. 2 pairs are difficult on this board and are mostly counterfeited.

Depending on how V perceives this previous hand in relation to this one, I can see him sigh calling it off with 55 on the river.

The non-club flop card pairing the turn, and his call, are a little concerning. And he's going to have a bunch of draws that bricked out. But a few that contain a Jx and are never folding, and he will presumably have 87/76/etc often enough.

But he's 100% calling $25 with 55, and very likely $150. I wouldn't be shocked if he called $350 a lot. Maybe $550 is a bit much, but everyone loves to put "wide" 3betters on AK all the time.

On the other side, if he has any memories/thoughts at all it's going to be difficult to bluff off with A high in the future when you check back AA here.

If he's never folding top pair then why are we ever checking back an overpair?? That is a truly baffling play.

As far as the hand goes, I don't really like betting 75% OTF and 50% on the turn when it leaves you with a PSB on the river. I think it's better to go geometric on all three streets (something like 75% pot on flop, turn, and river) or bet small on flop and then big on turn and river.

I see that you have less than 200 BBs remaining. Given your read this is an easy jam and if he has JJ, oh well.

Bet the turn bigger to make your river all-in easier to swallow.

As played, maybe less than pot, but bigger on earlier streets. I don't see at all checking back AA on this board against this player.

What was your thought process during the hand? Most importantly, what range were you giving V?

Based on the simplest interpretation of your read / prior observations, V likes to bet big with his strong value hands, and will check-call with all sorts of low-rent trashy nonsense.

If that assessment is valid / reliable, the river seems like a slam-dunk value bet.

Even without the specific read on V, the low-stakes population isn't likely to check the river to us with a hand that beats ours, when all the draws brick out, unless our table image makes opponents think we're FOS when we raise pre and go bet-bet-bet. They're too afraid opponents will check back, so they donk out with their strong value hands.

I think against the population, you could raise a little larger pre, c-bet a little smaller on the flop, barrel a little smaller on the turn, and size down to get called by whatever hands they have when they check-call the whole way. But against this V, you could definitely size up pre, c-bet larger on the flop, and jam the river.

All that said - I do think your turn sizing was pretty close to perfect against this V. The population will have some 4Xcc combos that turn trips and either donk out or check-raise huge. This guy is going to have an even wider range, with some off-suit 4X, and he might decide to start bluffing the turn with his OESD's. I wouldn't want to bet more than 1/2 pot against the population, but you squeezed slightly more value out of him by going 60%.

We just really need to jam the river against this guy. If he's trapping with a better hand, so be it. Checking back is borderline criminal against a V like this.