Strategy late in a satellite
2 scenarios with basically the same decision -
- You're in a satellite or player appreciation tourney where all winners get the same prize. You are mid stacked at your table with 15bb, it pays 35 and there are 36 remaining across 4 tables. 1 player are your table has 2bb but after a quick scan of the room, you see that 4 other players are 3bb or less. You have QQ UTG, Limp, fold, bet, AI?
- same type of satellite or PAT. 9 players left, you're UTG, mid stacked, and 3 players are under 2bb. It pays 8. Fold, limp, bet, AI?
10 Replies
Fold in both cases.
Fold all hands to the money -- except BvB except short stack. Somebody will make a mistake or get blinded out.
OK, agreed it is a snap fold from UTG. What about assuming blinds have been paid and the stacks are what remains...
1. You're on the button with 10BB, SB = 15BB, BB = 1BB?
2. You're on the button with 10BB, SB = 5BB, BB = 1BB?
OK, agreed it is a snap fold from UTG. What about assuming blinds have been paid and the stacks are what remains...
1. You're on the button with 10BB, SB = 15BB, BB = 1BB?
2. You're on the button with 10BB, SB = 5BB, BB = 1BB?
In either of those cases, you minraise any two cards. BB has to call with ATC. SB is going to call ATC and so there's a 2/3 chance the tournament is over right there.
so assuming you're at a full table, at what point to you not fold your QQ? And for the sake or argument, let's assume you were moved to this table recently so you have no read on whether the players behind you will play smart to only call and check down?
OK, agreed it is a snap fold from UTG. What about assuming blinds have been paid and the stacks are what remains...
1. You're on the button with 10BB, SB = 15BB, BB = 1BB?
2. You're on the button with 10BB, SB = 5BB, BB = 1BB?
I think I just call in these cases. SB will also call and we will check it down post flop. Unless one of us has the nuts at which point on the river it will be an all in. Point is eliminating BB who is already all in is the most important thing. I don't get why all the players before with reasonable stacks didn't just limp in.
Now if BB has 1 bb behind their bb on the table then I get a minraise. SB might jam with 15 bb's with a monster like AA but in all likelihood will just call to see if BB can be eliminated. BB might fold with the 1 bb behind because only half of it goes to the next hand as SB.
These are both easy folds.
so assuming you're at a full table, at what point to you not fold your QQ? And for the sake or argument, let's assume you were moved to this table recently so you have no read on whether the players behind you will play smart to only call and check down?
Your goal is to make the cut for the satellite. You do not need to accumulate chips. Making the cut line with one chip is just as valuable as making it with 100BB.
If you have a stack that is safe to make the money, but you are still covered (like when you have 15BB one seat away and multiple players have < 3BB), you should fold everything. Including AA. The chances of busting with AA are higher than the chances you fold your way out of the tournament before one of those many short stacks busts.
I'm not going to draw up specific circumstances, but that's the operating principle you should be considering when deciding whether or not to play hands on satellite bubbles.
If it is like 4 players for 3 seats, it can be a mistake to play to tight with a medium stack. It depends on the situation. If you are a mid stack with 20 players for 15 seats, you usually want to play QQ.
Generally, you want to steal when you are fairly short. It is more important that the steal goes through than your equity if called. You usually want to shove to steal and don't want to call or gii against someone who is committed.
Fold entire range in both cases.
