2024 Fantasy Football Thread

I like it, don’t feel like you lost much by grabbing Goff there

I'm not the biggest fan since he's not stacked with Amon or Jamo, but the insane value makes it unique, so I can't really hate it that much.

But come on, man! At least run it back with Felton lol.

One of those rare 4 TE teams where I definitely didn't need a 4th, but just felt strong enough everywhere else that it seemed okay.

TLaw, Tua, Sanders

Henderson, BRob, Najee, Javonte, Ford, Hunter

Amon, BTJ, Reek, DK, Waddle, Diggs, Slayton

Ertz, Muth, Otton, Fannin

You are quite thin at the RB position. Obviously if CMC is back you just need one other dude to step up each week. I like to have at least two solid starters but this can work.

I'd prefer a third TE to a third QB here but you got nice value on Goff. I'd be curious what TE's or RB's were on the board when you took Goff.

That's a solid squad.

It's a bit scary after Connor. A Jayden/Dak combo with instead of Penix a better number 3 RB might have been better.

I'd prefer Ferguson over Schultz if that was possible.

I’m probably never taking a third TE with LaPorta/Goedert. They’ll both project as top 12 each week.

Don’t disagree the RB room is light after CMC, but there are a lot of paths for the other guys. By the time I got to Pittman, it was pretty thin. Mason and Warren were the only backs between Pittman/Purdy. Etienne, Tracy, Charbs went between Purdy/Skattebo.

TEs between Goff/Goedert were Ferg, Strange and Pitts.

RBs between Goff and Allgeier were Guerendo, Blue, Dobbins, Rachaad, Tank, Braelon, Roschon.

Just made my first solo QB on DK, and it's one of the riskier ones. But it wasn't in the Milly so I think it works IF he can stay healthy. Wanted Trevor, but he went 12 picks ahead naked to a guy that passed on Burrow at the 4/5 turn (with Chase), and then passed on Nix 3 times even though he had Sutton and Engram.

Tua LOLZ

CMC, Harvey, Pollard, ETN, Allgeier, Hill, Shipley, AJ

BTJ, Reek, Ridley, Downs, Egbuka, Burden, Dyami, Malik

Kittle, J. Ferguson, Fannin

Hurts, Darnold

Mixon, Henderson, Kaleb, Mason, Lloyd, Brooks

Puka, AJB, JSN, Kupp, Bateman, McMillan, Wandale, Dyami, Coker

Warren, Goedert, Arroyo

Upon further review I agree with you on TE. I can see the path for Rb's as well.

I like this team quite a bit.

1st draft back, not my best SF haha, I blame jet lag

JJM, Rodgers, AR, Mac Jones

Jeanty, Hampton, Monty, Tuten, Allgeier, Wright, Hill

JJ, London, Meyers, Aiyuk, Austin, McCloud

Hock, J Ferguson, Strange

And my first regular back. Feel better about this than the sf

Herbert, Stafford, Dimes

Gibbs, Chuba, Judkins, Bigsby, Shipley

Ladd, Adams, Jamo, Jeudy, Pittman, Kirk, Dyami, Coker

Andrews, Goedert

Haha, yeah the SF is a little rough between the QBs and WRs after the top 2. But there are paths.

The 1QB is solid.

It was weird to see bowers flipped by so many players in the last couple weeks. I had them all in the same tier but kinda expected bowers to move towards the 1/2 turn not mid 2nd

The elite TE convos have been pretty polarizing the last few weeks. I think more people are on the side of it not being great on UD than there are Bowers/McBride bulls. Kittle in the 5th, plus the later TE value is causing the price falls. .5 PPR and opportunity cost of those WRs/RBs is also having an effect.

I'll probably be even on Bowers/McBride on UD and heavy on DK, so nice to see the cheaper UD prices.

Another consideration is that I think the market may have over adjusted to getting their ass kicked by the highly drafted TEs last season. I continue to see TEs falling at all ranges of the draft.

This graph is pretty eye opening.

Spoiler

Show

Maybe people are realizing just how much a TE has to do to make them worth taking over WRs and RBs in the 2nd round.

If any of them could do it though it would probably be Bowers or McBride, so I don't want 0.

It's interesting the difference in elite QB strategies between SF and regular BB contests.

In BBM it's accepted that you will typically end up with 2 QBs if you start with an elite, but I think you should be more willing to take 3 to 4 in SF if you start elite. Since by the time you're ready to draft QB again in SF, most of the secure picks are off the board.

Yeah, the primary argument is that elite TE typically results in sub optimal advance rates, but the elite TEs are also the ones who best have the ability to separate in the money weeks. So you still want them.

My problem right now is McBride/Bowers with a late TE doesn't feel as good as a 3 TE room of something like Kraft, Henry, Taylor.

Everyone thinks the scarcity of the elite TEs makes them more valuable, especially with McBride and Bowers having the upside to outscore the WRs in their draft range. But in reality, the scarcity of forgoing the borderline elite WRs/RBs in those ranges, especially for the Bowers range, may be more harmful with how TEs typically score in .5 PPR.

The problem is TE TD unpredictability. Bowers can go 10 for 100 with no TDs and score 15 .5 PPR points. Henry can go 4 for 40 and 2 TDs and score 18 .5 PPR points. However, Bowers could also score 2 TDs in that 10 for 100 game, putting him at 27 points whereas Henry can't do that. But TDs are king in .5 PPR.

I am definitely not fading Bowers/McBride, but whether they're good picks on UD or not will entirely depend on how many TDs they score and what they do in weeks 15-17. DK is a different story with it being PPR + bonuses. I think ETR is behind the market on UD but ahead of the market on DK.

Even with Bowers being the best rookie TE ever, he still had 7/16 games scoring single digits in .5 PPR during the fantasy season. He only had two games over 20 points.

My strategy with the elites in SF is typically to take the elite and then have my second QB who is a guaranteed week 1 starter, barring injury, by my 5th pick and then add on 2 contingent guys late. I've done a lot of drafting my 2nd QB by round 3 with the high upside guys like Caleb, Fields, Maye, etc.

I’m pretty open in 1qb to grab 3 QBs even with an elite

Something like Jayden, Stafford, Dart seems pretty ok to me

What about Hurts, Purdy, Goff? Haha

But yeah, it's perfectly fine, assuming draft capital is well allocated and your profiles fit together at the other positions.

Bold prediction.

The LegUp sims and ETR sims seem to be weighting more and more toward 3 QBs on UD.

And every time I watch Herzig draft on DK, he is always talking about how he wants 3 QBs, almost regardless of the mix.

I've never joined a gambling site. are there promo codes to use when joining for reduced fees?

like rakeback on poker sites?

thanks!

also thanks to everyone who helped me last year in my first fantasy football league, esp Jimmy.

maybe I'm just high, or ignorant... but it seems absurd to say that "in years to come all the best builds will be 3 QB builds"

the market will correct if that was true. i mean if it's true that 3 QB builds are best right now, it would just be because of ADP... you can get 3 meh QBs at a good price.

but if that was the best strategy and everyone was doing it, then the top tier QBs would drop in price, and the meh QBs would rise in price

or am I missing something?

No site has a standard percentage rakeback like poker sites. Sites have referral bonuses, random promos, and certain volume rakeback offerings like draft 50 teams in a particular contest, receive 5% of those total buy ins. But it's all pretty unique and is generally only going to be available if you're firing best ball at a high volume. I'm not sure about other gambling promos like parlays, player props, etc., since I don't gamble on that stuff.

I honestly don't have a great answer to your question other than, sure, the market will continue to be dynamic and change based on what the consensus thinks is best. DK is a more QB hungry site, because DK has 20 rounds and UD has 18 rounds. That doesn't mean that 3 QBs are any less valuable on UD, but it's more difficult to stay balanced.

There will also still be plenty of drafters who believe in 2 QBs or their own respective QB strategy, regardless of what consensus believes is best. That's the beauty of a market.

I doubt elite QBs would drop in price, as they are already cheaper than they should be. Lamar was the highest scoring fantasy player last year by something like 50 points, yet he has an ADP of 36. He outscored Chase/Saquon by 100 points. I do think the middling and low end starters would raise in price, if 3 QB does become the consensus, especially since as of now, we don't even know all of the week 1 starters for sure.

Opportunity cost and stacking dynamics will continue to drive the market more than anything else.