Need help deciding if this is a shove or a fold on the bubble

Can't edit the post but want to add I am convinced his range is probably any ace, any big king, any pair, and even probably other bigger suited connectors like T9s, JTs and QJ

However my fold equity isn't great with him only having to put in another 80k with 135k already in so getting 1.7 to 1, so he's probably calling with most of this range...

O look at it this way ... you double up and have an even greater chance to make the moneys.

Shoving without thinking about it. As a small stack you're not quite the slave to ICM as the mid stacks battling each other.

This is a slam dunk, high five the dealer....fold.

You are 100% to make the $ if you fold. If you jam, and get called, you don't improve your equity enough to risk the chance of busting here.

This has been exacerbated by the new (2024) edict of 2x min cashes, then no pay jumps for the next 1/4 of the remaining field.

I would fold here because doubling up isn't going to make it easy to go deep. What 3for3 said is key. We have to go deep anyway to really increase our cash amount.

Thanks, a few mixed opinions and I can agree with both so hopefully a few more people want to chime in.

On one hand nit folding down to 67k (5.5BB) and guaranteeing the cash is probably the best move considering the new scooped payout gradient.

However the fact I was likely ahead of his range and usually either going to get a fold or a call and have to flip to double back to average is also still valid to me. if he had called me with KQ and won I probably wouldn't be debating this as hard but just ran into worst case scenario...

So are you just folding everything here? Or are you still playing some hands? I would assume you're folding everything but AA

No, I would fold A9o. Not sure exact range, but shoving 99+/AK at least.

At this point, maybe play tight, but maybe missed some shoves earlier. With an average stack, I don't like blinding down on the bubble.

Yeah I didn't like blinding down either, I was just going to pick a solid spot and just literally went completely card dead for two orbits and bust outs slowed down drastically to the point where I was thinking we would be in the money already and we still had another full orbit probably...

Fold given the payout structure and how quickly you assume you will be in the money. Even doubling here it is unlikely you get more prize money than folding so if the expected cash is likely the same an easy decision.

Does on the bubble mean the stone cold bubble, like you're literally hand for hand one player away from the money?

Anyway there's always a range that should be shoving, but given the situation described facing a raise with a mediocre holding, little fold equity and a chance to just fold your way into the money I would fold the A9. You should be playing tight there due to ICM.

You could run the situation in HRC to come up with a range, but I'm thinking facing a CO open in that scenario you would mainly be shoving premium hands. Once the bubble bursts the ICM situation changes significantly and you can open up your range.

No I’m not folding everything. I’d need to see some more details, but based on what OP has said, I am jamming QQ, AK.

Definitely would help to know exactly how many are left to cash and how big the overall field is. (I mean, in the main event, say 1500 cash, you're closer to the money with 1505 left than you are in a tournament with 18 left and 16 cash. Also it's more likely in the former case that there are more stacks shorter than you.)

Generally in the situation here-- on 10BB with the big stack raising-- I think A9o just doesn't have enough equity when called, and you don't have much fold equity. If we're at the point we're playing tight to make the money, this doesn't make the cut.

You can still get an actual premium before you have to post, and even though posting again sucks, busting even with like 58% equity is definitely going to be worse for your $EV. You can actually calculate this if you have the exact numbers of players and players left-- ICM calculators will let you estimate the $EV of your stack and the $EV if you double it. (It might be tougher to calculate well on the bubble than at a final table; I'm not sure which calculator is best for this.)

^^^^ Yeah he hit on another key consideration. You're shoving into the big stack, who can call off a lot wider. If a fellow 10 bb stack had opened to a min-raise you could rejam wider as you would have a lot more fold equity.

A9o just doesn't have enough equity against a calling range; you're only happy if you're dominating another Ax or 9x hand. You're not even 54% against QJs and not even 59% against 65s. We're not just trying to get into a +cEV situation here; we're trying to maximize our $EV, and at this stage, even on a short stack, that's going to mean folding a lot. Folding makes money when you're in a spot that incentivizes letting other people bust.

Everyone is dramatically underestimating the range of the Villain. It is said that he has been raising a lot. With that said, I raise a lot, and I would open that spot with something like:

22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J9o+

With that said, you are still, at best, a coin flip vs that range.

Yeah, it's still about 57% against it, and the downside of losing the hand and busting is such that that's not a spot we want to be in right now.

With like 2/3 the average stack, the mincash is not so important that I would be folding premium hands here.

The big stack can call off wider, but probably has a very wide range, and knows you have a strong range, so you may have some FE.

I think the most important lesson here to learn for you is to realize that whether you are ahead of his range or not is completely irrelevant. This is not a chipEV question. Your choice on the bubble should be guided by what gives you the best return in $. Which here with almost 100% certainty if you replay this situation 100 times will be folding yourself into the money.

I would fold this hand, but your stack is worth about 6 buyins in equity past the bubble and the mincash is about 2 buyins. Plus if you fold, you may get further blinded down before the bubble, something ICM calculations do not consider. So you shouldn't be folding hands where you have a huge win percentage versus the raiser's range. He probably has a very wide range and you may have some FE. Definitely folding A9o though.

Yeah, this seems about right. I would push tighter than that, but not folding good hands. Yeah, pps and suited cards have good allin equity against a wide range.

I ran a quick sim in HRC to better look at this spot. I used a 10% payout structure I already had saved and set up the sim with 110 paid and 111 remaining. So it's not exactly apples to apples with the OP's WSOP spot.

With the new WSOP structures where 15% are paid and a min cash is relatively significant I would imagine we should be shoving somewhat tighter than the following:

I think mtgalex's posted range of 66+, ATo+ and A8s+ is pretty solid. You might also shove KQ suited and offsuit, KJs and maybe QJs.

A9o is also close, but given what I mentioned about how the WSOP structure likely leads to a slightly tighter range and also given that it's generally good to skip very slightly +EV shoves I would still fold it.

Also note that CO with a relatively large stack is supposed to be opening around 44% of hands (minraising 33.7% and shoving 9.2%). So they're supposed to be very active and if they're only opening like 30% then we should likely be playing significantly tighter.

Does the sim allow for stack size distribution at all? If we're 75% of the average even at 10BBs, I'd think that would make for a significant number of players shorter than us, which would further incline me to fold.

You can manually enter stack sizes on your own table. For other tables I think there might be a way to manually enter stack sizes, but I typically just set the average and let it auto-generate. You can view a chart with stack sizes and I think there's a way to manually enter stacks on other tables but that's just too much data entry when you have 100 + players.

In this sim I set the average stack at a little over 18 BB. I sort of split the difference as I wasn't sure if he meant he had 75% of the average when he had 150k or if he meant he had 75% of the average when the hand occurred and he had 100k.

I actually expected the shoving range to be a little tighter but I guess it's just a function of how wide the CO is opening. In practice I don't think we want to be shoving the stuff that's barely over break even in the chart.