Need help deciding if this is a shove or a fold on the bubble

Yeah, not running sims, but I would shove significantly tighter than A9o. Would shove 88+, etc. though.

Another thing the simulations don't consider is you have 100K and will probably need to post another 30K before the bubble bursts. You have about 8.3xBB. So there is some reason to push to avoid getting blinded down further.

Another thing I consider that the simulation doesn't: If there are a relatively large number of players remaining on the bubble I lean towards playing tighter. With 100+ players on the bubble in larger field events, someone is typically going to punt and the bubble doesn't usually take that long.

If the bubble is occurring with only 17 or 18 players left it can drag on significantly longer. The short stacks can tend to get blinded down more in these scenarios. OP never said exactly how many players were left but it's just another factor to consider.

Yeah, the exact details of the bubble would be very important for deciding on a range here. Hard to do anything but estimate without those specifics.

Yeah, it depends on how likely the bubble would bust soon.

If you shove, you are the bubble in a WSOP event about 40% of the time, figuring you sometimes resteal.

I can't see how shoving A9o is a big mistake though. It is also sort of a disaster to get blinded down to 6xBB with everyone pushing after the bubble.

I mean, folding to the money does make it likely your most common result is a mincash, but doubling up to 20BB on the bubble doesn't really give you much more equity than that.

It would not; depending on what OP meant either 10BB or 15BB is "75% the average stack."

Again, knowing the actual details of this tournament would be necessary to provide a clearer answer.

OK, so if 10xBB is 75% of the average stack, if he wins he will have 22xBB, maybe 165% of the average stack.