AA overpair vs donking fish, what now?
I'm a little unsure of the decision-making throughout this whole hand as it plays two issues off each other, and curious what people think.
Hero probably has a bit of a scary/aggressive image at this point. We've gotten dealt some cards in the last hour and most people probably remember a number of hands that went something like open, overcall or two, big chunky 3-bet by Hero takes the pot down. There have been enough of these that it might be a stretch to claim a TAG image, and we recently stacked off AK vs KK (and won) which may or may not reinforce the idea that our bets are scary.
Villain is a pretty standard nitfish. Not OMC-grade, but basically never gets out of line and bets or x/c when he has it, raises when he really has it, and x/f when he doesn't. Plays draws passively and is tagged as "overfolds to cbets". You probably have three of them at your table right now. A while back, we flatted his open and flopped top two on a wet/dynamic board - he led flop and folded to a pot-sized raise.
OTTH
1/2 NL 8-max
Villain has maybe $380 or so, Hero covers.
Hero picks up Ad Ac in LJ.
Villain in UTG+1 open limps. Hero raises to $12, folds back to V who calls.
(He does have a split opening range and opens rather than limps very strong hands from EP.)
Flop ($23): Kh 8s 3c
V donks for $10, Hero...?
(At this point I'm already a little worried in both directions. I find that fish donking often have 2p+, although the smaller donk size might discount that a little. On the other hand, if he has Kx, it's almost certainly not AK and we are "supposed to have AK" as the PFR. He's probably folding to aggression here with worse Kx. I doubt he would donk with 8x or worse. Are we focused on more value right now, or not getting owned?)
21 Replies
Seems like the easiest flat in the world. A nitfish either has us beat on this board or he is feeling us out with Kx. He's either going to tell us what he has by his betting pattern and we either fold or get an extra bet in there if he's checking, or he's going to disguise his set by betting small all 3 streets and we pay him off.
Flat calling the dryest flop in the world will accomplish both goals: avoid getting owned and be able to extract value later in the hand if need be. I think his range is 88, 33, KQ-KT, K9s+ and occasionally AK or some underpair trying to see if you have the K or better.
What's the turn card and action?
All right, simple enough, we just call.
Turn ($41): Kh 8s 3c 5s
V leads for $20, Hero...?
I probably still sigh call flop and sigh a lot more on turn, but I'm a lot more worried than most seem to be. Esp. by turn it seems sus to assume he thinks KQ is the nuts here ... would be much happier if you were OOP and had check called, but you are IP and have called his bet on a board with no draws and he doesn't care.
I think the flop range is going to be more like: 88,33,KQ and maybe AK/KJ ... there's probably some random spazz in there, but I wouldn't expect even KTs to normally play this way (unless you have reads that V is donking a lot). Maybe you can hope that because you've been active he's more likely to spazz, but even though the AK hand is lucky, it's not like it was A5s or something where you don't have top pair a bunch here. The big problem is that I see people do this a _lot_ with 88,33 and rarely with KQ, but it is HU and it's annoying/hard to fold overpairs.
Almost certainly folding river if it's a K or Q, might just fold anyway if he decides to bet big.
If the river is an A and he bets anything, shove.
Almost certainly folding river if it's a K or Q, might just fold anyway if he decides to bet big.
Yup
I think we discount sets as villain, as described, surely would check the flop and hope you bet. Two pair I'd think villain would take the same line most times.
I would re-raise the flop and test his resolve.
I think we discount sets as villain, as described, surely would check the flop and hope you bet. Two pair I'd think villain would take the same line most times.
I would re-raise the flop and test his resolve.
That sounds a bit like raising to figure out where we're at.
H has an OP at 190 bb, an insanely unthreatening board, despite bd spades, no real redraws, and a fairly passive villain who's bet ~50% flop and turn. I'm in calldown mode as H. Unless, as illiterat pointed out, a K, Q (and I'll add J) comes off, still calling. V likely thinks they're vb top pair. OK.
Sets are hard to make, not really worried about it, but I wouldn't raise yet either. This is about as WA/WB as it gets. If they do have 88 & b50 again, I guess we just lose the minimum.
Do we have a river to discuss? We have a decision if they X river, we vbet (?), and they raise.
Just call him down. Raising folds worse and gets called/raised by better. He could easily have AK here I would think?
That sounds a bit like raising to figure out where we're at. H has an OP at 190 bb, an insanely unthreatening board, despite bd spades, no real redraws, and a fairly passive villain who's bet ~50% flop and turn. I'm in calldown mode as H. Unless, as illiterat pointed out, a K, Q (and I'll add J) comes off, still calling. V likely thinks they're vb top pair. OK.Sets are har
Betting to see we are at? We have AA and villain most likely doesn't have a set (and if he/she does I think villain would take a different line given hero is "aggressive/crazy"). We crush AK, KQ, KJ and K10 and K9 type hands. Villain could have A9 here also I guess. The only thing hero is worried about is 2 pair and would villain take this line with top 2? But then hero is self described as crazy/aggressive so checking any set or two pair would be common.
Besides hero has described himself as "aggressive/crazy" so even more reason to re-raise the flop. How does playing this passive support his description of his play? surely flatting is more suspect given the texture of the flop.
Raising flop would only support his image more here wouldn't you think? Seems to me villain is betting the flop and turn in hopes to avoid an Ace hitting the board.
Let's say hero wants to flat the flop - ok I can buy that, however flatting the turn is nowhere near getting max value.
In sync with most of the comments, we call the turn.
River ($80): Kh 8s 3c 5s 6s
V leads for $50, Hero...?
Bonus question, what was the plan if V checked the river?
Besides hero has described himself as "aggressive/crazy" so even more reason to re-raise the flop. How does playing this passive support his description of his play? surely flatting is more suspect given the texture of the flop. Raising flop would only support his image more here wouldn't you think? Seems to me villain is betting the flop and turn in hopes to avoid an Ace hi
Just to be clear on the image read here, I said "scary" not "crazy" - like mostly TAG but we've played more hands recently and might have additional FE versus fish who are afraid to call cbets and face big aggression on later streets.
If V remembers anything, it's the hand where he opened $10 from MP, H calls behind, blinds come along. Flop QJ9tt, blinds check, V bets $20, Hero raises to $85, all fold. Do with that what you will, but I imagine it means he's tightening up his betting range.
Calling River given backdoor flush only small part of his range.
If chedked, I bet 40 on River. Insta fold to raise.
Nitfish is unlikely to be barrelling draws, OTOH I don't love him betting into a flush river. I probably sigh-call and then punch myself in the nuts when I see a set of 3s.
I think it's pretty close, $40- I probably sigh call and $60+ I probably sigh fold. Any reads would swing it (esp. about how thin he'll bet river when someone just called).
Also worth noting that KsXs got there.
I would try not to tilt if I called $50.
Checking in PPT: If we give V a range of AxKs,KsQx,88,33 then we have 60% on the river, which is better than I expected.
If he checked I'd check, because I'd value seeing what he played this way more than 60% of $40 or whatever. Also it's "hilarious" if he x/r our river bet.
Betting to see we are at? We have AA and villain most likely doesn't have a set (and if he/she does I think villain would take a different line given hero is "aggressive/crazy"). We crush AK, KQ, KJ and K10 and K9 type hands. Villain could have A9 here also I guess. The only thing hero is worried about is 2 pair and would villain take this line with top 2? But then hero
Got carried away and forgot to try and answer some of your excellent post.
"Raising to test his resolve", was what I was referring to. I think H is very likely in the lead on this board and throughout the hand, really. So I don't think a raise does much but either shut V down early or induce a raise that we have to fold to.
They have something if they're betting, per the read. Very likely it's some variety of a King or connected 8. Maybe an underpair. They're going to fold all 8s, underpairs, and most Ks, I'd have thought. Though your point about H's image as aggressive is good, and might induce a loose call from the AK/KQ/KJ(?) part of the range.
I'd prefer a raise on the turn, if H is raising. V continues to bet into H, albeit small, and the turn really only adds a spade draw. Pot is 81 with a call, 340-ish back, so I guess the question then is, does H want to play a large pot with only an OP and no real redraw to even a semi-bluff, though a wheel is possible? Or keep things light?
Play larger, and deny Kxss odds, raise to 85-90 should do it. We'd be raise-folding, if we were, I think. I don't think top/top counts as "really has it", so any V 3! will beat a pair of aces. Assuming a turn call and safe river, H could b/f if V checks for some more value.
6s comes off, and V keeps going for b65-ish. Calling. But expecting to see some BS Kxss hand that walked into the flush, and then we can berate ourselves for not raising turn.
H needs to be good 28% of the time though and H probably is.
Call river. I think hero folding to this goofy fish line when we conceivably beat value bets would be a mistake.
If he shows up with a set, it is valuable information to have. Plus, the guy neglected to put us in a difficult spot and basically won the minimum so whatever, nice hand I guess.
I think it's pretty close, $40- I probably sigh call and $60+ I probably sigh fold. Any reads would swing it (esp. about how thin he'll bet river when someone just called).
Also worth noting that KsXs got there.
I would try not to tilt if I called $50.
Yeah, I think we're on the same wavelength here.
At the table I'm mostly focused on 2p but the $50 lead smells of a sizing tell like he's happy about the river. But 28% for he has KQ/KJ and is just happy to have run out without an A... I can't lay down AA against that. It's borderline and I would probably fold to $60.
At the table I tank for maybe 20 seconds, sigh, and call.
Spoiler
V shows and proudly announces "King nine!". I'm so wrapped up about whether he has 2p that I check the board twice and actually flip my cards before I realize that was...
V shows K9ss for the flush.
Honestly not tilted for it, since I think it reinforces the idea that I was getting good value with a passive calling line and in the much more likely scenario he doesn't hit the bdfd, a small bet on the river is probably max value. I didn't think that draw was likely enough to really consider on the turn. However, I think I can be too timid in some value spots out of a belief that only better hands will call, hence this thread to see if anyone really wanted to push for an earlier raise.
One thing I will say since it has come up in a few analyses - I really don't think V can have AK here. He has been shown capable of RFI from EP as well (so he splits his range), and I have to imagine that means AK is not in his open limping range.
Some obvious comments...
If he's donk leading K9 on the flop, you need to raise there with this hand and many others (or be aware you are exploit calling if he's going to fold to a raise).
Even better it also means his x range is mostly garbage, so cbet any2 on dry boards.
Also you need to relabel V.
FWIW I'm not folding turn with K9s to any realistic raise size, and I doubt V is either. So after the flop you probably lost the min.
If he's donk leading K9 on the flop, you need to raise there with this hand and many others (or be aware you are exploit calling if he's going to fold to a raise).
Even better it also means his x range is mostly garbage, so cbet any2 on dry boards.
Also you need to relabel V.
We might just have a nomenclature disagreement here - unless the player is very memorable I am just putting fish into four quadrant buckets based on bet and fold tendencies: nitfish, TAGfish (rarest category, high aggression but no bluffs), spewfish, and stations. I don't find it worthwhile to further gradate the nitfish based on how nitty they are, unless it's the short-stacking OMC who shoved KK but open-limped AKs whom I will no longer call with QQ. Any Villain who basically never bluffs and folds too much (especially flop) goes it in the "nitfish" bucket.
Calling instead of raising flop is certainly exploitative in the sense that I think he is close to strictly folding worse and calling better, and I don't see a strong need to deny equity on that board or balance any potential bluffs. But if I don't need to balance the rest of my range, calling seems optimal hand-versus-range? I tried to be straightforward in my OP that his range donking that flop was a decent amount of Kx plus better hands.
And yes, his x range is very weak and yes, I am c-betting range IP against him on every board and it's quite profitable.
Normally you should punish villain for disrespecting your range on a board that heavily favors you; here his line looks exactly like what you would expect from a nitfish, a Kx betting to find out where he is at. Though nitfish can have some other pairs here too.
As played, you should raise the turn, river call is fine. You all ready let him set his price once on the flop, and he is still not showing strength.
