1/3 - Feels like I might have gotten trapped, but could be getting bluffed by this river x/r...

Betting range on this flop is a huge mistake.

When we bet too often on the flop, we need to check more on the turn. Plus, the turn is horrific for us. They can have 65, 54, 55, A5, probably any 5X suited. Plus we’re very rarely getting called by worse here. The only value to betting is by cleaning up equity from overcards which probably don’t represent a huge part of villains range.

There is virtually no merit to betting river

I could see checking back the turn to bluff catch river with 2nd pair. That's one of my favorite lines, and I think that line might be better.

The thing is - if we're checking back turn to induce a river bluff, that's an implicit acknowledgement that his range is going to have a lot of draws and worse 1P that are just going to come out and monkey-stab the river. Betting the turn targets that range for value, so I don't think it's a big mistake to bet rather than check back.

I don't think he has much if any 5x in his range on the river. In this configuration, when V is competent, A5s is going to raise pre a lot. A5o might raise pre at some frequency.

I don't think he's calling pre with every combo of 5x suited. Like, I don't think he's calling pre with K5s down to 85s. The 5x in his range is mostly going to be suited connectors and suited 1 gappers - 75s down to 53s, maybe.

If he has 5x, I'd think he'd either donk or check raise turn at a high frequency, when there are two flush draws on board, unless he has a re-draw to a flush, and there just aren't that many combos available.

We block 75dd and 65dd, and the board blocks 65cc, 54cc, and 53dd. So he's left with 75cc, 54dd and 53cc for 5x combos with a re-draw to weak flushes. I think those hands all want to just get stacks in on the turn.

If he has 5x on the river, I'd think he'd just donk out, when the flush draws brick, because I'm going to be checking back at some frequency. Even if I have AK, AQ, or KQ, I can check back and win versus worse bricked draws. I can check back with hands like 8X, 77, and 6X that are happy to take their showdown value.

The turn is an interesting card. Yes, it puts a one-liner to a 5 on board, but he shouldn't have many 5x combos in his range, and 75s was already a straight, so it doesn't change the nuts. It adds another flush draw, so it seems like a safe card to barrel with our flush draws and over-pairs when he checks again.

As it happens, it's not a bad card for my actual hand, because we pick up the BDFD to go with our TP and gut-shot. If he has 5x, we have outs to improve to a higher straight or a flush. We could also steal the pot if the river is a club and he checks again.

When he doesn't raise flop, I think most of his range is going to be worse 1P hands, and suited over-cards. We want to get called by the 1P hands, and we can deny equity from those draws and over-cards that can make a flush or run into a better 1P on the river. When he calls the pot-sized bet, I'm mostly giving him NFD's and worse 1P that are just being stubborn.

Like I said, the river bet might be a bit thin for value, but thin value betting is crucial for maximizing our win rate. When all the flush draws brick, I think we can get called by worse 1P, and we might fold out 76 for a chop, or even 77 at some frequency, if he even gets here the way he did with 77. If we think he's 3B'ing pre with 77+, then he doesn't have 77 or 88 here.

In hindsight, I think I could have bet smaller on the turn, but it would suck to get check-raised there, when we have so much equity in our hand, and the SPR would be awkward. If I bet half pot, $40, and he makes it $160, the pot will be $280 when action is back on us, with only $200 behind.

I'd be getting 4:1 implied odds in that scenario. Don't think we could fold, and it would suck to jam into a better hand, then brick the river, or call and then fold on a brick river if he jams, when we'd be getting 3 to 1 on a call.

I posted the hand because V's line is so nutted, but it's so hard to find his thick value when our hand and the board blocks so much of that thick value. He'd have to be massively slow playing a lot of very strong hands to get here with enough value combos to balance out all the potential bluffs in his range.

There's a lot here but TLDR - your play is far off "standard" for lack of a better word, but makes sense if a decently long list of assumptions you are making are correct. A few things to consider:

"if we're checking back turn to induce a river bluff, that's an implicit acknowledgement that his range is going to have a lot of draws and worse 1P that are just going to come out and monkey-stab the river."
-- That is only part of the thought process. First of all, their range also has pretty junky hands (AX, overcard with diamond back door draws,) that fold to a bet and may bluff river some freuqency. More to the point though, our range is in pretty rough shape here. Even more so because you suggested your strategy is to bet range on flop (which I reiterate, is a very large leak,) you have tons of overcards that are just lost here. We're either have to check a ton of them which means we need to protect the checkback range, or we're going to be way over-bluffing with them.

The lack of 5X is possible, for sure we should assume 5X check raises flop some frequency, leads turn some frequency, check raises turn some frequency, maybe leads river some frequency. But we have to be careful when we make significant adjustments based on the idea that some one virtually never has something. You don't know their strategy. And preflop I think it would be very aggressive to take A5o K5s Q5s

"Like I said, the river bet might be a bit thin for value, but thin value betting is crucial for maximizing our win rate."
-- It's not a bit thin, it's very thin. What are you hoping to get called by? We absolutely need to bet thin for value against live opponents, but that doesn't mean we bet every river with every decent pair. And very relevant to the hand, we bet thin against these opponents because they call too wide and we can easily fold when they raise because they way underbluff. We got raised here, we fold.

Related to the last note, we're moving through this hand betting thin for value with some level of assumption that villain as part of population is calling too wide and raising to tight. Then we start talking on the end about "a capable villain may overbluff here." Not only is our thought process not consistent, but we have to remember the reality of 1/3 -- almost no players are capable. There's 19 tables of 1/3 running at Parx right now, that's 171 players, maybe 25 of them are +EV. I don't think there's enough info in our write up to outright assume villain is competent, maybe we can say they're likely competent or a overly LAG profile, but even that seems like a reach. And again, one of the msot common errors of LLS players is not check raising and not river bluffing enough. Of the 171 people playing 1/3 right now at Parx at least 80 of them have probably never in their life raised the river without 2pair+

I'd expect V to raise pre with A5s and maybe some other 5x SC combos like 65s and 54s

Why are you assuming some seemingly nitty rando is 3-betting hands like A5s/65s/54s from an UTG straddle?

In fact, you even doubled down on your belief that when V is competent, A5s is going to raise pre a lot.

All I can say is Huh!?!!?

Ok, river is obvious 5x or air right?
But not so fast. I think his air range includes all some of his marginal showdown value. a4, a6, 77
Could he do it with better hands like 2p+ and sets. It's really thin for him, because you're repping 5x or air on river as well.
So overall I'm not sure what a bet on river does. We had showdown value maybe???? It's way way way too thin for value. If we're bluffing with 6x here, then I think we're bluffing way too much???

Anyhow, for flop, I believe:
1) Most aggro opponents are all check/raising 5x on flop.
2) People on the passive probably check/call.

Check/call check/call then check/shove.
I guess he could have floated clubs or random air w/diamonds on flop, then x/c again on turn, then on river realize you're FOS then check/shove.
Marginal hands like A4, A6 might do this because he thinks you're FOS, but again, most people just call down.

Tbh, I don't even know why we're betting river, maybe turn was a bit thin as well but your aggro image could help getting light call downs.
Are we betting to fold out random 8x??? or 6x with better kicker? But I think they call quite often for such small price when your line is FOS.

Anyhow, as played, it's easy fold?
Most people aren't good enough to check/shove bluff in this specific spot for live 1/3.

I did a similar river check/shove with A high, but I got tank called by like 3 pair on a 4card straight, river flush board. But preflop, flop+turn were played differently.

This river bet is a significant mistake IMO. It's way too thin. You clearly have showdown value here, but you don't actually have a value hand (i.e. you are only getting called by better hands). You also re-open the action, allowing Villain to check/raise with bluffs and trapped straights (which I do think are out there). There is something to be said for betting small in position on the river to induce a bluff but I don't think this is a good spot for that.

As played, I guess it's possible Villain is bluffing river against your weak sizing. It's definitely not a bluff that very many players are going to find though. I would just fold. I'm guessing you called and won though, so congrats on a sick hand.

way too thin for me, if you're betting range on this flop then I'm x/raising your a$$ all day

I was mostly betting for value, because I was mostly giving him worse 1P (A2-A4), and busted club draws for a range.

I wasn't bluffing per se, and wasn't thinking I was making a merge bet to get called by worse and fold out better. But there are a couple combos of 76s for a chop that I think will fold often enough, and a couple combos of 98cc and 87cc that may or may not fold when they run into top pair. There's also one combo of 86ss that is never folding, but I think that hand donks river when it makes top 2P and the draws brick.

I bet river because I thought V was pretty capped based on the action. Most low stakes players are going to take some aggressive action on flop or turn with strong hands when the board is so wet and dynamic, and / or donk river when the flush draws brick. Even when I pot it on the turn, if V has a nutted hand, at this SPR, I'd think he'd want to raise, when there are two flush draws on board.

If we give V a range of busted flush draws and worse 1P, the river bet for value, even with 2nd pair, makes sense. It looks thin, but in terms of relative strength versus V's range, it's strong enough to bet. I sized down to get those worse 1P hands to make a crying call, and also avoid value-owning myself if he does show up with 98cc, 87cc, or 86ss.

But when we size down in this line, after potting it on the turn, it might look weak, and induce a raise. Most low stakes recs aren't going to find this raise by turning a hand with showdown value into a bluff, but a good, thinking player may understand I'm doing exactly what I'm doing - betting really thin - and make this play.

If you look at my line from his perspective - I raise pre from LP, c-bet 1/2 pot, barrel for full pot, but then down bet to 40% pot on river when the flush draws brick and the board is 8-high, it could look FOS.

I really think whether or not we can bet our hand for value comes down to how we range V, and whether or not we think V will bluff catch us with worse if we bet small. We don't know ahead of time if V is capable of check-jamming the river, either for value or as a bluff, so the focus should be on checking back or going for thin value.

I went for thin value because I was giving him a range of worse 1P and busted draws, and I thought his worse 1P that get to the river the way he did might call a small bet when the flush draws brick. I could have a ton of bluffs in this line, and a thinking V might decide to bluff-catch when I bet small on the river.

If we start giving V slow-played hands like sets and straights, my hand goes from being showdown value to being a bluff if we bet. Like, I'm not sure it is showdown value in either scenario. V is either severely capped at worse 1P and my hand is strong enough to bet, or he has a lot of strong hands that he slow-played, and my hand gets downgraded to a bluff or a weak bluff catcher.

I definitely wasn't trying to induce a raise. I agree my hand isn't strong enough to do that. The check-jam was entirely unexpected. At that point, I had to stop and go back to the beginning of the hand, reviewing the action street by street, trying to find his thick value that plays this way.

If we give him a lot of slow played strong hands, this is a snap fold. If we don't, then it's not an easy fold, because my hand and the board block so much of his thick value. It really comes down to whether or not we think he's slow playing strong hands in this line.

I think slow-played sets make more sense than straights here. His flopped straights and straight draws that float the flop and bink the turn really want to raise when there are two flush draws on board. His flopped sets might just flat call the 1/2 pot c-bet, possibly planning to x/r the turn if I barrel, but then abort mission when the 2d puts a one-liner to a straight on board.

The thing about that line that doesn't make sense to me is this - if he's going to slow-play the flop and get scared on the turn, why check-jam the river, when he can just flat call and win if I'm bluffing or betting too thin for value? If he's worried about me checking back, he could come out and block bet.

In this line, almost all of my range is folding when he check-jams. I'm mostly just calling with straights that were praying he'd call the 40% pot bet, and are ecstatic to snap call a jam. Like, I'd snap fold AA here. I'd rather have 76s, blocking the nuts, and blocking more of his thick value.

I did end up calling, mostly because his line didn't make any sense to me, and I was getting almost 3.5 to 1.

I figured he only needed to be bluffing 20%-25% of the time to make it a profitable call, and he might be slightly tilted from dusting off $100 in a couple orbits at a soft table, or he might be waiting on a higher stakes game, and 1/3 is just Monopoly money to him. I beat all the showdown value combos he's turning into a bluff (A2-A4), and I beat all his busted draws, so I figured 3.5 to 1 was more than good enough odds.

I'll do the reveal later. It's one of those hands that make you wonder if he thought he was jamming as a bluff or for value.

Ha I was actually going to suggest that he might be bluffing with a better hand than yours but then I couldn’t really think of that many hands that would fall into that category. A6s or 8X I guess?

You’ve mentioned A2-A4 several times in this thread. Don’t you think those hands would mostly fold turn? A4dd makes sense and there is A2cc but that hand might raise flop. Either way, I think it’s too thin to just target those hands. If I’m Villain and I get here with A2cc I’m folding to a river bet anyway.

I think it makes a lot of sense that Villain has a set here (trapped flop cause low stakes players love to trap, didn’t raise turn cause four liner). 22 also makes a lot of sense as a hand that never raises flop or turn.

Also your hand definitely has showdown value here, because Villain should have a fair amount of missed flush draws. So you can just check back and win against those hands.

Check flop, check turn, check river, fold to shove.

Most of these replies are way too long to read, so grunching (and full disclosure, I didn't read your full post, either, after the hand). FWIW, your first paragraph on V and your second basically contradict each other. You have zero idea what he's playing and nothing in paragraph one indicates competent or agrro (maybe a little nitty).

I'm fine with pre from CO. Flop is usually a check, but you hit it harder than V should realize, so I'm OK with the bet. Turn is a check for me after he calls the flop. Let's see a river. Once he calls the turn, river is a check -- and be happy about it. As played, fold. If you want to hero call, go for it, but I think it's lighting money on fire.

It seems like you put a lot of effort into your posts so I don’t want to go too hard on you but you aren’t understanding a lot of poker concepts as illustrated in this hand.

1. Don’t build pots preflop with 7 high against weak opponents

2. Don’t worry about ranges or balance versus highly exploitable players.

3. Don’t value bet thin on Overfolded board textures

One heuristic I have found is the longer a persons post the less they understand a concept (unless it is a theory post).

You want to explain your thought process like you are talking to a child.

This is a board/situation which generally does not justify three streets of value betting.
Flop doesn't seem like a range bet but it connects with the cards you have so I think the bet is fine. You would continue vs a c/r.
Turn is where I check, but given that you bet pot and were called, the river bet is way too thin.

If you're FoS, his Ace high calls. If he's FoS, why would he expect you to fold an overpair for so little extra?

You've shown nothing but strength, and down betting this river to get crying calls with your straight is perfectly reasonable. And since it's reasonable, he's going to be bluffing into the nuts(or something close to it) with little fold equity given the size of the raise.

Just call and lose to 2p+. In my experience someone pausing OOP to call a bet is more often thinking about raising, not folding. They aren't bluffing here, though it may be more of a "I'm going with this, if you got it so be it" bet.

As for how to play this hand, opening to $20 over the straddle with 7 high is rough. I'd probably do it though cause I'm an idiot.

Flop I can get behind a small bet or checking back.

Turn is 100% a check back.

River is a call or fold to a bet depending on sizing.

This hand is played so terribly that you’ll want to re-evaluate every aspect of your poker game. You are making horrific blunders everywhere.

This ^^^

Rando low stakes is not 3-betting that ****, and you've certainly not seen anywhere near enough to peg him anything other than rando.

Pre: I think I just call the straddle, unless Button and Blinds are aggro.
Flop: I don't hate the bet as much as others; we should get folds more than the 33% we need to make this profitable and good equity if called. Checking behind is fine too.
Turn: FFS take your free card
River: WTF are we doing betting here? Is this a value bet (ungodly thin) or a bluff (when we have a bluff catcher). As played fold (despite the price). Average rando is not raising river big without a monster. Sure every once in a blue moon, he'll show a bluff, but the average rando is not bluffing anywhere near close to a frequency you can pick off.

This would've been a decent PAHWM. There's a bunch of debatable (which does not mean, "wrong") decisions on every street. Is opening 76s CO OK with a UTG straddle at <90 straddles? When UTG is <70? What's the perceived range of younger East Euro with a pack full of chips? (My own 1st draft is they're going to try to be GTO as possible & not nitty at all.) Is it good to cbet a board meh for our range, but that hits our actual hand? And so on...

V can't think you'll fold to this raise. For the population, H is in 100% sigh call mode. H has put in over 40% of their own stack, never mind V's. I'm in sigh-call mode, berating myself for betting instead of checking back.

But so many of you are saying "fold." Is it as an exploit? H needs ~22% here. Is there not enough random LL silliness that 2nd pair can't call this? And if H should be folding here, does that then make bluffing river at these remaining stacks more viable than I'd previously thought?

Interesting hand, Doc. Thanks for posting it.

So, I called. V says "set" in a way that sounded like he wasn't sure he was good, and turns over 33, which surprised the hell out of me, when there were two flush draws on the turn and a one liner to a straight on board.

We talked about the hand very briefly later. English being his second language, it wasn't clear to me if he thought he was bluffing or value betting, or if he thought he was making some sort of merge bet. He said something about wondering what I could have as I was tanking.

I told him I had a pair that blocked the nuts, and he nodded in a way that seemed to indicate he understood my reasoning for calling.

For those saying I need to completely revamp my game, FWIW, I'm generally crushing low stakes. I post hands that seem worth discussing because the decisions aren't clear cut. I think my line here was fine against most of the LLSNL population.

Yes, you can deviate significantly from optimal plays because low stakes players are all terrible. But you can also be making gigantic blunders and still crush low stakes because low stakes players are all terrible. And you played this hand horribly - it’s a purposeless punt.

Go home, Doc, you're drunk.

He’s a fish and fish bet merged because they don’t understand the relationship between board texture and hand strength.

But no this line isn’t fine, your line is very negative EV and even if you are crushing your stakes (seems suspect) the goal is to get better.

What is the point of posting hands if you don’t actually listen to the responses?

We have many good players who have already commented here and they're all better than me. So I would just humbly add that H doesn't pay enough attention here to the process of range compression as the hand progresses. It's also important to note that V closes the action HU preflop and can be much stronger than we're giving him credit for. He doesn't need to 3b the top of his range necessarily preflop.

H raises preflop, c-bets and pots the turn. V's range gets stronger as we go. By the river, he has two NFDs, maybe JJ-AA, sets and A5/55. That's it. Doc is giving him credit for all kinds of crap I just don't think he realistically can have after all the action. Doc's description includes a few instances of V meekly folding post after missing and mucking too.

So our river bet targets nothing for value because V is snap-folding bricked NFDs and everything else he arrives with to the river beats us.

When he jams over us, he has no bluffs. V offers 3-1 on our call, so he has no FE with his jam. We are never good here.