AQo in SB vs a Maniac and a Calling Station
1/2
V1 (500) Earnest WG with scraggly beard has VPIP around 60/7/1. He’s open limping, calling limps, limp-calling, calling four-way. He opened to 10 once with 96o. He has made three one-quarter bets on four-way turns. He has won some big pots!
V2 (700) Asian gambling lady watching videos on cell phone and using bad words has a VPIP around 60/25/10. Staff love her because she throws chips often and brags about hitting private parts. Huge bet sizes. She has open raised to 23. She re-raised a flop once with air. Despite all this excitement, she has fallen asleep once while in the hand. And she has also won some big pots!
Hero (425) has a TAG image to V2. V1 isn’t paying attention.
OTTH
V1 UTG opens 10. V2 BTN calls. Hero in the SB with AhQd. Hero?
15 Replies
At first I thought this might be a fold but the fact that V1 occasionally opens trash like 96o makes me like squeezing here. I would 3bet to $50 and fold to a 4bet.
I don’t think it is a big mistake to fold (OOP against a UTG player that doesn’t raise much) and calling against two weaker players can’t be that bad either.
He’s 7% pfr and Utg, this is a fold.
OP estimates a PFR of 7% but I assume this is over a very small sample. The only thing we know for sure is that he is a loose player who has previously raised 96o which isn't an RFI from anywhere.
I would also assume that a fish playing 60% of hands isn't likely to be very positionally aware with his pre-flop opening ranges. Like this guy isn't folding KQo or ATo just cause he is UTG.
V1 is an erratic player. In one hand he lost to V1, player sitting next to me couldn’t believe V1’s line. No coherent story, I asked? Exactly, he answered.
He’s a very passive player.
Fold.
If 7% PFR is even ballpark, even if some amount is random junk, a lot of it is still premium hands. We can find a better spot than facing a maniac aggressing when there's a station with a likely-premium hand yet to act.
We're not online. Old guy, position savvy, opens to 10 UTG; yeah, we need something better 210 bigs deep. But this situation isn't that one.
V1 could just be deciding to open raise something pretty vs limping it, and AQo beats a lot of that. Put in 50-60, fold if V1 4!'s, decide if V2 wakes up. What Dan said, basically. Going bigger because V1's really passive and we might as well take advantage of a weaker range now. If crazy, put our stack at risk at any moment V2 sits this one out, even better.
SPR'll be 2 if both call 60, ~2.5 if both call 50. Not a lot of room to manuever, but prefer that to simply calling with the offsuit combos.
Edit, even if V1 actually is raising a 9% range here, and since they're mostly position-blind, AQo flips against that.
V1 UTG opens 10. V2 BTN calls. Hero in the SB with AhQd raises to 50. V1 and V2 call.
Flop (143 after rake): J86r
Hero?
This is a big thing. If he opened 96o from the BTN then shrug and fold is fine, if he is doing that kind of thing from UTG to balance range or whatever then 3bet for sure, but fold to 4bet.
Also lots of people play the "raise trash early and show, then I'll get action later" game ... or have some kind of plan and then get bored after folding 6 hands in a row and raise anything. Really need more info. about this counter read to the 7% PFR to know how we should respond best.
Post flop we aren't dead, but I'd assume both V's hit this board better than we did so check and see what happens.
V1 UTG opens 10. V2 BTN calls. Hero in the SB with AhQd raises to 50. V1 and V2 call.
Flop (143 after rake): J86r
Hero?
Check/fold? This is the situation I wanted to avoid by folding pre, and I think the only real argument for playing to a flop here was that if you did make a pair then you're most likely good if still going to have to potentially face some decisions.
I would expect this to check to the maniac on the button, who is going to make a move, at which point it seems crazy to stay in with no pair. And if the maniac knows how to 3b pre, this flop hits her (flatting) range nicely.
You described V1 as a calling station, so we have zero FE here right?
I think 3! was mandatory but 50 seems a little small, I think I'd go more like 65.
As played x/give-up vs larger bets seems fine. Might peel 1 vs half or less.
Results
Preflop
V1 UTG opens 10. V2 BTN calls. Hero in the SB with AhQd raises to 50. V1 and V2 call.
Flop (143 after rake): J86r
Hero checks. V1 bets 20. V2 raises to 120. Hero and V1 muck.
Results
Preflop
V1 UTG opens 10. V2 BTN calls. Hero in the SB with AhQd raises to 50. V1 and V2 call.
Flop (143 after rake): J86r
Hero checks. V1 bets 20. V2 raises to 120. Hero and V1 muck.
I'm reading this, and constantly changing my mind, so apologies in advance.
Not considering V1, after that bet, unless it's a submersible 'b10, and they'll spazz' kind of thing. Which, considering he folded, probably not.
I want to actually wait to have a hand to go to war with V2. Then, I thought, how deep are we? Is JJ/88/66 really betting 75% of pot now and getting everyone to fold? She's probably full of it. Why bet so big that passive V might fold?
OTOH, 120+50 is 170, and you started the hand with 425. She might just shrug call with A8xx or whatever garbage she's got. Still tempted to jam here tho.
I mean sets are hard to make, so I'd be happy to jam AA/KK/QQ here ... but I don't see how AK/AQ/TT are doing well often enough. Would assume her raise is a generic "I have a decent pair, let's put money in" wouldn't even be shocked if she had as bad as QJ (which is bad for us).
