Sixes attack and here we are
1/3 NLHE 9 handed
We switched to this table on an active Saturday night because 1 it has V, and 2 it has two hot girls playing, lots of unknowns in the city for an event so lots of unknowns.
V - Mawg fish with some weird tendencies, looks like Pinocchio's grandpa. I've been battling him on/off for a few weeks. Runs pure. Limps and limp calls 80% of his range pre (VPIP about 50%). Mega sizing tell, opens like 25 cold over 3 with TT+, AK he goes a little smaller. Spazzes his stack when he has the mortal nuts. Like 63o on A-2-4-5 MW he'll rip 600 into a pot of 40 and sometimes get paid by fish with a naked 3. That said he is also very loose passive and calls a lot when faced with aggression. 650$. BTN.
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UTG fish straddles, UTG+1 woman limps, V to 15 OTB, SB folds, H in BB sees 6♠ 6♣ makes it 60, V calls. HU OOP.
Flop 120 - Q♦ 4♦ 3♥
I cbet 50, V calls
Turn 220 - 8♣
I check, V bets 50...
15 Replies
I would flat call preflop with this hand OOP. It plays better multiway, and isn't a good hand to bluff or semibluff with. You don't know where you are at postflop often, as here.
You give this overly detailed read but then fail to process the very last statement: calls a lot when faced with aggression, which means that if you don't hit your set you're going to be OOP with a crappy pair and little fold equity.
Just call the small preflop raise and enjoy a hand of BINGO.
V - Limps and limp calls 80% of his range pre (VPIP about 50%).Mega sizing tell, opens like 25 cold over 3 with TT+, AK he goes a little smaller.Spazzes his stack when he has the mortal nuts. Like 63o on A-2-4-5 MW he'll rip 600 into a pot of 40 and sometimes get paid by fish with a naked 3.That said he is also very loose passive and calls a lot when faced with aggression. 650$
What is the reasoning of 3bet over just call here?
How sure are you that he never raises small with 77-99?
Any idea if he plays AQs or KQs like AK?
If he shoves are you calling assuming AK only or folding?
If you are very sure of your AK read then I guess you can do anything but fold on the turn, but probably raise fairly big.
Without being very confident of that read I think you are in no mans land, probably leaning x/c turn hoping for at least a brick and hope he doesn't bet river.
I would have just called pre, and then likely x/c flop and then decide on turn (likely leaning fold unless he will double barrell random high cards). The problem with 3bet+cbet+check is that he might decide you both have AK or even his AK is good, so now we have to decide if he's doing some weird equity denial bet with worse or if he's got slightly better / a real draw.
I don't like the preflop play especially with 66 - it just never flops well and very hard to get to showdown. Would rather 3bet like QJs/Axs or even like T9s. I also think you're better off just calling with this hand - it'll go 3 or 4 way which is great when you make a set, or maybe you can make a play postflop that has less risk involved. I think this line is costing you money longterm especially at 1/3 where people generally are more passive/call stations. I think at 1/3 the way to make the most amount of money is valuetowning esp multiway when you make a better hand and scooping up small pots postflop with little risk.
Yeah, it is a profitable set mine playing it 3 or 4 ways, but a really bad hand to play in a 3! pot HU OOP.
I feel like there was an implied justification to 3b this hand that we can soul-read V, and eliminate most/all overpairs, etc. So...
Spazzes his stack when he has the mortal nuts. Like 63o on A-2-4-5 MW he'll rip 600 into a pot of 40 and sometimes get paid by fish with a naked 3. That said he is also very loose passive and calls a lot when faced with aggression.
...but what does he have when he bets out small like this? 😀
Only a little tongue-in-cheek here, as I think raising pre without a solid read on his tendencies and a plan to exploit them was a mistake.
From the earlier read, V has about 50% VPIP, but only raises the top 20% of that. So a 10% range, but then had a sizing tell that excludes TT+ from it. There's a lot of Qx in the resulting range, but still essentially flipping, assuming V continues everything on H's b40 cbet. Is V folding anything to that cbet, given the LP read?
V then bets <1/4 on a 8c blank. I dunno what they're doing. They could just x-behind if drawing, and the bet isn't enough to set up a good river shove. Is V trying to get H to spazz here? H has no FE, right? Even with a jam? I don't know how we can distinguish between V having AK, versus all of the Qx they also have.
So probably just calling, seeing a river, and deciding. Like everyone else, not 3! sixes pf.
Okay so to clarify, if he goes 15 here top of his range is like ATo, KQo, JT, SCs, S1Gs as high as QTs, A9s-, 88-...
Hm...looking at your description, you say he has a sizing tell but do you really know his open range good enough???
Most fishes open really tight.
If you trust your reads based on sizing tells then we still probably flat, we still have a fish in straddle and another player behind to make it profitable enough to bink a set.
As played, if sizing tells is correct, he has marginal hands/draws here right????
We either call for showdown.
Or check/raise to 200 for both value and bluff. When we check/raise to 200 we might fold out better but get worse(draws) to call.
If he calls the raise then river proceed with a check/call or check/fold on river.
Yeah, at 1/3 against loose/passive fish, you make your money mostly from 99+/AQ+ and sets. Fish opens are tight, and you may not want to 3! light that much.
Well I felt like 66 is a little wide maybe, I've seen this V open 15 EP with 78s and call a 5x 3bet with not much back and generally see him limp weaker stuff, he's so linear with his sizing like AA or KK he'll open 30, TT-QQ opens 25, SBWs opens 20 etc.
Result:
Spoiler
I call the 50 with ~500 back effective thinking it smells like a weak Q. And thinking this board is so hard to hit. River brings in FDFD with 2♦, I check and he does this weird physical thing where he grabs 200 in green then pauses and only bets 100 and I figure its a flush all day and fold. He doesnt show.
It's weird because you have some show down value, which is part of the problem with 3-betting this hand. However, I would rather fire 100+ on the turn. That is a big bet in absolute terms and represents an overpair. Part of the point of 3-betting light is to bluff postflop. You won't get many preflop folds in 1/3.
I don't see how you can be sure a 1/3 pot river bet is a flush.