Call or fold with our set?
2/5 NL game
Effective stacks, just over 100bb
Limped pot, 4 going to the flop
Hero 77 early position
Flop 7♠ 4♣ 9♥ (rainbow)
Everybody checks
Turn 8♠
Villain (early position also, directly to hero's right) bets 2/3 pot
Hero calls, other two players fold
River 2♥
Villain bets 2/3 pot
Hero is worried villain has 56 or JT or T6 (probably not 99 since villain limped pf), but he is beating missed FD's and two pair hands
Ignoring the fact that hero may have misplayed this hand pf and on the flop or turn, what's hero's best play now? Hero had not been at the table long enough to know too much about villain except that he believes she would bet two pair (98 being the most likely) for value based on her previous bets against others, particularly since hero has shown no strength
9 Replies
Raise pre
Bet flop
Turn call
River call
We lose to jt/56 sometimes, win vs 98, 9t, 8t, tx, bfd, 9x sometimes.
Ignoring the fact that hero may have misplayed this hand pf and on the flop or turn, what's hero's best play now? Hero had not been at the table long enough to know too much about villain except that he believes she would bet two pair (98 being the most likely) for value based on her previous bets against others, particularly since hero has shown no strength
never folding here as played. Trying to write this constructively and not in a way that comes across as douchey, but you've posted this hand for advice so w/e....the river decision and whether it is/was right or wrong is not what you should be taking from/dwelling on with this hand. Your play is just way way too passive all the way through and not only is costing you a ton of money in the long run but is also why you're basically guessing on the river here
Raise pre, bet flop. bet/raise turn
Put pot sizes on all streets please.
I don't know whether you are asking about folding river, if so LOL.
Pre is bad, this is a raise.
Flop did you check to raise? If so I understand but I would lead out because if no-one bets you are missing a lot of value. You can't trust people to bet limped pots, it's different if someone raised pre.
Turn I would raise and get it in if possible.
River I don't know, I'm tempted to raise but it's disgusting if we get re-raised. Folding is out of the question.
Your play is just way way too passive all the way through and not only is costing you a ton of money in the long run
I'm sure this is true. The problem is when I'm in early position with middle pairs and I raise to $15, $20 or $25 (standard opening raises in this game), someone often kicks it up to $75 or $100, then I just fold. Perhaps I shouldn't fold. Regardless, that's why I've been limping with middle pairs in EP. I feel it's too weak too but it feels worse to raise to $20 only to fold to a $100 3bet. Any advice? Thanks
It's unusual for a player to 3bet but not raise a limp.
I'd lead the flop. River call is fine for the price, don't mind overfolding vs some opponents though. Given spade semibluffs we should lean call.
So you limped behind with 77, since there is ep to your right. On the flop, do you have position? It is 4-way, so maybe the SB folded and there is another player to act.
IMO, preflop is probably good. Keep it multiway, and you can call a raise, but you don't want it to be 3! and you have to play it HU or fold. Some people always want to raise, but sometimes limping behind is better.
Flop seems just terrible. I assume there is another player to act, and you didn't check in position, but you have to bet. Just awful. OK to play for a checkraise if you were 1st or 2nd to act.
Calling down turn and river is OK, but you could raise. Folding would be ridiculous. Guess you lost.
I'm ok with limping, looking to call a single raise with a middling pair in EP. The value in your pair comes from hitting a set and not much else. I can also get behind raising. It's ok to fold to a 3!, don't let past experiences dissuade you from mathematically sound play. If the same person keeps 3! your RFI, they are attacking you as too passive. If it's just 'somebody does it', then you're just on the wrong side of variance at a typically passive table. They can't both have lots of limpers like this hand demonstrates AND be 3! at a high frequency. It doesn't make logical sense.
You *HAVE* to bet this flop. There's a huge chance it gets checked through since it's somewhat dynamic but very dry. You have the absolute nuts, and sure you want to x/r I'm assuming but you're going to generate so much fold equity you're not going to have a chance to get in stacks.
Given few reads, if you think V would bet 2p for value here I think we have a profitable raise/fold line. After calling a 2/3 pot bet on the turn, I would imagine V goes for a PSB or more on the river with a straight.
Looks like on the river it's a $30 bet into a $50 pot? Something like that minus rake.
Sure it's a '2/3 pot size bet' but it's just $30 in a 2/5 game. Absolute size matters more than pot size imo, and it's a small bet. I imagine someone willing to bet 2p for value on this board texture goes for a larger size with their straights. We can eliminate JT with the sizing, meaning she has the butt end or 6T at best, and lots of 2p and at least 1 set we're beating that plays this way.
I think this is a good place for a 'merged bet' or whatever fancy term people use. We can raise for value to something like $150 and reasonably expect non-nut straights to contemplate folding and 2p+ to get curious and look us up. It's an interesting heuristic where a stronger hand can sometimes feel weaker due to being 'not quite the obvious nuts' vs bluff catchers looking more appealing given the passive play by us the whole way.
If we get 3! we fold ofc, but I think its a profitable play.
Ofc, in game I just call here cause I'm not confident enough in this idea but I'm happy to suggest it with your money lol
If EP, you open-limped 77, or limped behind? I wouldn't open-limp. I might limp behind.
If you're getting 3! too much, as Dash points out, figure out who's doing it. Same V, they might be picking on you, different Vs, variance be like that. You want to start having a 4!/f range (though not with sevens), I certainly won't tell you No.
Limped 4 way pot, H is at least second to act, probably 3rd. Bet. The. Flop. AP, raise turn. Yeah, 3 to a straight. That's life, and H has outs.
By my rough count, stacks are 500 to start, and there's only 30-35 in the pot after V bets turn. That's abysmal with a set. H calls makes the pot maybe 50 or so, with 475-480 back. Since there's soooo much money back as played, raise/fold river if you want. Or put in another 35 to call, w/e. Don't fold.
So, V had 65, and you're wondering how this could've been avoided?