5/10: Probable self-dug grave? with top set UTG
5/10, 8-handed, weeknight.
15 minutes into the session. None of the table have especially stood out and H has no history against anyone there.
Hero ($1,500) opens to $30 with 8-s 8-c, UTG
Villain (early 20's Asian male, $3,000, no stats available) calls in UTG+1
Everyone else folds.
Flop ($75): 8-h 6-c 3-d
Hero checks, Villain bets $40, Hero calls.
Turn ($155): J-h
Hero checks, Villain bets $105, Hero raises to $280, Villain calls.
River ($715): 4-s
Hero bets $550, Villain goes all in. What a mess.....
(1) What do you do?
(2) Should Hero have raised more on the turn?
(3) Should Hero have raised the flop with top set?
13 Replies
On the river, I think you only lose to JJ/75/52, so 4th nuts. Is he calling raises UTG+1 with 75s or 52s. He probably would flat JJ. That seems like the only thing you are losing to. He could be raising worse for value. You are getting about 3-1. So I definitely couldn't fold, although I guess you lost. It is concerning that he raises when you take such a strong line. You could have played the flop differently, but if you got stacked, it is a cooler, not from bad play. Not much you can do about set over set.
Pre-Flop: standard
Flop: readless, I prefer to c-bet here. Against younger V, x is okay because he may stab. I like flat call.
Turn: xr is good. But I actually prefer to lead out. Board has gotten a lot wetter. V has flush draws and AJ/KJ that can call.
River: all logical draws (I don't think he can have exactly 7h5h) have busted. I prefer to x and induce. V probably has a hand he can put more money in with or a high-quality bluff candidate like AhQh that blocks our overpairs. I don't want to fold his bluffs.
As played, H has 600 behind. Are we really folding a set here getting 3-1 to call? I don't think so. If he has JJ, it's a cooler. He could have 66 and think it's the stone nuts.
Yeh you can't fold - maybe he has some 57s combos but I also think he might fold those to the turn raise. JJ is most plausible but he could have sets/bluffs. His is early 20s and your line looks FOS - he could turn hearts into a bluff, who knows. With all things considered I think you just have to call.
I think this is well played basically across the board. Some argument for a check raise on flop or continuing to check call on turn, but I think your line would be my first pick. If anything the change is make is just bombing it on the river. But as played happily put the chips in, no universe where we fold here
You bet 550, allin is only 600 more
I def think he is shoving worse for value at this stack depth , call all day
Agree with everyone else that you have to call here and Villain can have worse value.
With the disclosure that I haven't played a single hand of $5/$10 in my life, I think you need to try to put all of the money in yourself in this hand. 150bb is not too deep to get stacks in with top set in a SRP. The best way to do that would be to check/raise to a larger size on the turn so that you can shove the river.
On the turn there is $155 in the pot with $1430 back. Villain bets $105. If you raise to even $375 here, that means if Villain calls, the pot will be $905 on the river and you will have $1055 back. Then, you can jam for just over pot. Could even raise bigger on the turn to set up a less than 1 SPR, but obviously you don't want to risk Villain folding anything here.
I’m calling river and feeling good about it. It’s obvious you lost because this HH exists, but god only knows what some unknown live jabroni who cold called UTG+1 is capable of showing up with here. You can talk yourself into saving your stack by not putting him on any of the worse hands he shouldn’t have and only putting him on hands that beat you… which he also shouldn’t have.
We can split hairs about each of the three streets, but the EVs run close together, we’re on an imaginary branch and I don’t think there are any obvious exploitabilities.
I do like flop x/r in general, but it’s less appealing here with 66/33 somewhat discounted.
I think you arguably x/r’ed my least favorite street with the J bringing in perceived FE for a triple barrel, giving him some combos that will vbet 3 streets, while also bringing in some coolers for getting in the last 3 bets that still need to get in. So once we x/c flop and this card hits, I think I leave the bear trap open for another street.
But self-dug grave is dramatic. I think it’s helpful to be realistic about what actual EV is gained/lost with different hands, and the whole point of coolers is that the dollars lost are high but the EV loss is very low (or non-existent).
Why are we raising so small on the turn? Couldn’t we make it at least 400 and then jam river ourselves?
At first I hated flop line but it’s ok, though prefer a lead. Turn raise feels like it should be more like 375, intending to stuff river
Raise bigger we want to play for stacks.
Flop all 3 options are appealing. This deep I like check raise the best.
Yeah, seems like a bad beat post and villain somehow had JJ or 75s. Maybe he wants to be reassured it was unavoidable.
what range are you targeting with the turn CR that calls for this sizing but folds to bigger sizings?
I’m calling River and feeling good.