$600 Deepstack, AA facing a river overbet jam
$600 Pokernews Deepstack,
blinds are 200/400/400
We have 25K (30K starting)
Villain covers 45K
We are new to the table. But we showed up late. The table is 8 handed
Preflop: Hero has As Ac UTG, we raise to 1.2K, UTG1 (villain calls), BB calls
Flop: Kd 3s 3d
BB checks, Hero checks, Villain checks
Turn: Qs
BB checks, Hero bets 2K, Villain raises to 5.9K, BB folds, Hero calls
River: 9d
Hero checks, villain shoves (effectively 18K)
Is this a sign call because of us checking the flop? Can this random guy have a 3? Like K3? Is that in his range? I feel people do some wacky things in these small buy-in events.
9 Replies
I dunno, tough one. I guess you have to call if he's shoving KQ like this. Only 1 combo of A3s. JT and diamonds got there too on the river.
I think I'd be most concerned with seeing QQ, but again, not a lot of combos of that. Really not a lot of anything here for value. But then, I just don't know what value hands you beat now.
Hard to fold here after checking the flop as we under repped our hand. We could have AQ though. But I'm guessing we would fold AQ to a turn raise.
Because Villain checked the flop KQ is less likely than if Villain had bet the flop.
So my guess is that Villain has some flushes that got there. Probably QXs though could be hands like JTs. Also 3x hands that would have checked back the flop to make it look like Villain doesn't have a 3. Not a ton of hands though like A2s/43s/53s. I doubt K3s/Q3s call preflop (though I've been wrong before).
I wish I play AA better than I do. In spots like this I call and see the hands that typically beat me. I think these are not overbluff spots because the flush got there. And we could have QQ+/AK.
Can't fold this as played - I would think in a live 600 the only concern we have with their turn raise is 3x, but I doubt they have much if any 3x calling UTG+1. I would definitely bet the flop here - the only argument I see of checking is if you have an opponent who will spazz out the turn/river, but most of your value will come from valuetowning Kx.
I screwed up the original post. There was no flush draw on the flop. The 3d should have been a 3h. Turn brought a spade flush draw, but I had the As.
I don't see how we can fold. If Villain has a 3 or QQ so be it. If Villain has 99 it is a cooler of epic proportions.
Now I get it. Villain can have JT especially of spades. Still I don't think I can fold here. There are times Villain has KQ. Or possibly K9s (spades).
I typically bet the flop here because we don't block any Kx hands. If BB has a 3x hand so be it.
What's the rationale for checking flop and betting turn?
Villain's range should be very strong flatting in UTG1 and it's hard to see him playing anything you beat like this. The river overbet is polarized, but what bluffs does he have in his range? JTss gets there on the river. Would anyone raise turn and shove river with a hand like 88 here?
Meanwhile you lose to A3s, KK, QQ, KQ, JTs, 99. And I also don't think you under-repped your hand as much as people think after you call the turn raise.
Seems like one of those spots where you feel you're supposed to call but you beat nothing.
You don't lose to KQ.
Checking flop is very bad IMO. You're multiway and checking gives free cards to lower pairs. You need to extract max value from a K starting now. If no one has one, you're probably not going to get much anyway.
AP sigh call river since there's no flush but bet flop to avoid the nasty spot.
