[1/2 Live] AQo BTN – Turn Value-Bet Dilemma on AK6ccx Board

You cannot beat the rake at a 1/2 game if this is true.

I’d probably bet turn and then consider a check back depending on river. Not entirely against 3 steers here either.

You are a good favorite against draws and better hands may have raised flop. Bet 150 and sometimes bet river.

If thats true I assume you’re bluffing the turn that size every time possible?

I'm happy with the larger size, $200 or even $250. Very few hands are ahead of you, especially that didn't raise the flop.

This is mostly about denying equity to (or at least charging properly) the draws. If worse one pair hands won't ever pay you off, I don't think it's worth trying to size down for them versus pressuring draws. I would plan to check back the river unless it bricks and it seems necessary to balance your bottom-of-range hands that want to bluff off the missed draws with better SDV (usually this isn't necessary).

If everything worse than AQ folds to less than pot on the turn, seems like a great reason to bet this line with full range then.

In reality, I would expect $200 to get called by some sticky aces and also a lot of flush draws, and the river to be pretty face up. Yes, you're likely behind the continuing range now and an astute V could force you to call off the rest of your stack, but IME they usually don't. If you get stacked by A7, 77, or a river luckbox, so be it.

Keep betting until you get raised

Would be tempted to shove turn, esp. so given whale has way more Tc2c hands than AJ.

Def. not betting turn small after two flop calls.

I think it's hard to find value on rivers ... esp. as our hand almost never improves, any 7 or 6 destroys our equity and again whale at least has way more flush draws or random QT/QJ/6x that want to suckout vs. one pair than actual good one pair hands (and maybe is bad enough to call it off with A3 or something assuming we have KcQc or whatever).

I would size up on the flop. This is especially true if we are worried about not getting called on the turn.

As played, I would bet. If you think it is close, which I do based on your descriptions of Villains, I think the tiebreaker here is that this is a big pot compared to what I expect would be typical at this table, and we don’t mind winning it right now as opposed to giving draws a free card—especially if we are going to pay off on the river. We need to take advantage of the mistake our opponents have already made by getting into this spot with us.

EDIT: It looks like you have 380 behind in a pot of 360. I’m not betting anything less than all in.

Giving flush draw perfect odds is much better than letting flush draw for free.

This is a pretty easy turn bet and not too concerned about optimal sizing at these stakes.

Grunch:

PRE - I don't hate the 3B with AQo in most scenarios, but against a large-ish open and a call from a whale, I'd probably just flat call with AQo when we're on the BTN.

FLOP - My standard line as the PFR on ace-high flops is to check back or over-bet. I think I'd just check back with AQo when we're multi-way, on AK6 two-tone. Either V could have AK or A6s, and no one is folding KXcc just yet.

TURN - this is the problem with our line on earlier streets. 3B'ing pre and c-betting the flop is probably over-playing our hand in a multi-way pot. If we'd just flat-called pre, the pot would be smaller, and the HJ would have the betting lead going to the flop, while we'd have the best position.

As played, we only have a pot-sized bet left behind. I probably just stick it in and pray someone can't fold AJ.

Rather than looking at it as "losing value" when our opponents fold AJ, I'd look at it as "reaping value early", in that we got a lot of value when we 3B pre and c-bet the flop, but now it's time to take the pot down before a disastrous river peels off.