100NL - interesting river spot
No reads / history on villain, seemed like reg
What put villain on with his river raise? what think to my sizing?
As played unlikely either of us can have KJ here
Edit: it's Zoom on stars
No Limit Hold'em $0.50/$1.00
PokerStars
6 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com: Poker HUD...
Stacks:
UTG - UTG ($109.29)
MP - MP ($233.08)
CO - CO ($209.74)
BTN - BTN ($126.77)
SB - Hero ($100.00)
BB - BB ($105.20)
Preflop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is SB with 9♠ T♥
1 fold, MP raises to $2.70, CO calls $2.70, BTN calls $2.70, Hero calls $2.20, 1 fold
Flop: 4♠ T♠ 5♦ ($11.80, 4 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $6.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $6.00
Turn: 9♦ ($23.80, 2 players)
Hero bets $14.92, MP calls $14.92
River: Q♣ ($53.64, 2 players)
Hero bets $33.75, MP raises to $87.00
Hero??
15 Replies
Ez fold preflop (I would fold this even in BB MW)
I can see arguments for folding flop
Would rather XR OTT (or Xjam)
Ez Fold river (His betting into 4people OTF and Raises river)
Preflop is burning money on fire. You think you have pot odds, but you don't. You need to pay 2.2$ to win 9.6$ (1/4.5). You will be 4ways oop with a bottom 50% hand, so you cannot expect to win 1/4.5 times the times. The only hand you want to make is a straight, and nobody should pay you off if they know how to play even a little.
Turn is fine. When I see a turn donk for over half pot, I always assume it's value. I assume the field probably has a similar read to me. So know that you represent a better hand than you have (a set).
River, continuing on that logic, you are only betting to maybe target a fish with QJ or an overpair. I think it's too thin, but it's probably not that horrible depending how much you left behind. snap fold vs a shove.
Ez fold preflop (I would fold this even in BB MW)
I can see arguments for folding flop
Would rather XR OTT (or Xjam)
Ez Fold river (His betting into 4people OTF and Raises river)
check raise turn feels like over repping hand, getting shoved on would suck
river I put him on just one value hand, and has more than one potential bluff
Preflop is burning money on fire. You think you have pot odds, but you don't. You need to pay 2.2$ to win 9.6$ (1/4.5). You will be 4ways oop with a bottom 50% hand, so you cannot expect to win 1/4.5 times the times. The only hand you want to make is a straight, and nobody should pay you off if they know how to play even a little.Turn is fine. When I see a turn donk for over ha
yeah targeting over pair with river bet
why snap fold vs shove - what range put him on?
44 & 55 are not opening always from MP (I open +66 HJ and + 44 CO and if BTN is Fish and Blinds are Regs I open tighter)
What type of edge are you expecting? This is like saying that you called a well sized 4bet with 67o because vilain is a fish.
Something like +30bb/100 if navigated well postflop, risking 1.7bb to play a hand that flops 2 pair+ around 10 percent of the time and prints vs capped ranges and fish.
don't think J8s opens MP, I block TT & 99, all combos KJss likely won't cbet
no bluffs?
44 & 55 are not opening always from MP (I open +66 HJ and + 44 CO and if BTN is Fish and Blinds are Regs I open tighter)
agree, but can get bluff raised off with combo draws
Something like +30bb/100 if navigated well postflop, risking 1.7bb to play a hand that flops 2 pair+ around 10 percent of the time and prints vs capped ranges and fish.
middle 2pair 4way is the equivalent of middle pair headsup. If the pot gets big, it's because you are behind
preflop - Fold>3bet>call
Flop probably fold
Turn probably never donking with this hand, xr or xship
River probably check/calling any non overbet
as played fold
preflop - Fold>3bet>call
Flop probably fold
Turn probably never donking with this hand, xr or xship
River probably check/calling any non overbet
as played fold
I don't think squeezing this non suited OOP pre is better than calling
river you'd call the raise? what range put him on?
i am the 4. person with the opinion that preflop is a pretty clear fold here. I think you underestimate how bad we realise our eq here with the other 2 regs involved. Wich szenarios realy bring us money here ? only options are us floping a straight and fish flops big hand wich is pretty unlikley 1% that you flop a straight and 1.5% that you flop tripps.
Now imagine in case you hit this hands you need to avoid having a setup against yourself wich will happen very frequent if you have tripps and sometimes when you have a staight (all the other players should have full freq. ATo and ATs beside bb sometimes squezing it) and ofcurse all the A9 K9 etc that can cooler your trips.
So the chance to get all the money from the fish does not out way the potential risk imo here and it is therefore pretty clear -ev.
Also on the flop if mp is betting you should be folding top pair very frequent with the bdfd blocker probably fine to call because cleaner 2 pair out but i guess you would also call without bdfd? wich already would be a mistake.
On the turn clear check to him donking does not make much sense here you dont realy mind one check back your hand is not comfortable playing a big pot oop on most rivers.
What was your reason to donk ?
