Facing unexpected donkbets
Early in a $20 online MTT.
GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 125/250 (30 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by Pokeit
UTG: 16,393 (66 bb)
UTG+1: 10,000 (40 bb)
MP: 9,435 (38 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): 9,970 (40 bb)
CO: 21,296 (85 bb)
BU: 17,089 (68 bb)
SB: 8,864 (35 bb)
BB: 26,859 (107 bb)
Pre-Flop: (615) Hero is MP+1 with 9♠ 9♦
3 players fold, Hero raises to 575, 3 players fold, BB calls 325
Flop: (1,515) J♠ J♣ 3♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 500, BB calls 500
Standard small CB spot on a paired board that's good for my range, so villain's call suggests either a slowplayed monster (Jx, 33), marginal value (pairs), or club draws. Preparing to fire again on a non-club turn.
Turn: (2,515) 4♠ (2 players)
BB bets 830, Hero calls 830
Didn't see that coming. The small donkbet on a brick turn card is very suspicious. I don't see him playing Jx/33/44 this way, so this looks like a turn blocker bet to set his price and prevent me from firing a larger turn barrel. In hindsight I'm wondering if I should put in a small raise here to get value from his marginal value and club draws.
River: (4,175) J♥ (2 players)
BB bets 2,088, Hero calls 2,088
Didn't see that coming...again. I've already excluded Jx from his range, and he's not betting half pot on a busted flush draw here, so this is looking more and more like a marginal pair and now he thinks he's good with the boat. I lose to TT but beat all the others. Would anyone shove here?
4 Replies
Probably fine. You could raise the river but 1/2 pot is the point where I start to wonder. A smaller bet I would raise. A bigger bet I would usually call. But it's also early and so we're closer to chip EV, and QQ-AA shouldn't be in your opponent's range. Outside of Jx hands they really have very little that beats you, so raising is probably OK.
Probably fine. You could raise the river but 1/2 pot is the point where I start to wonder. A smaller bet I would raise. A bigger bet I would usually call. But it's also early and so we're closer to chip EV, and QQ-AA shouldn't be in your opponent's range. Outside of Jx hands they really have very little that beats you, so raising is probably OK.
What about raising the turn? I think I'd have to raise fairly small to avoid folding out his worse hands, but I don't like that I let him set a good price to see the river.
The turn is the street I would consider raising. Typically though the blocking size donk bet is smaller than 33%. Usually it can be a flush draw possibly with a pair like A3s. It could also be a small PP. But it could also be Jx that doesn't want you to check behind.
In these situations when I raise the turn donk I don't get called on the river when they miss or with a smallish PP because they will be convinced they are beat. Here, because of the sizing I think I'm OK with just calling the turn and then I would call the river.
I also prefer to just call on the turn with this sizing because it will look like we can have a draw and they might bet the river.
What about raising the turn? I think I'd have to raise fairly small to avoid folding out his worse hands, but I don't like that I let him set a good price to see the river.
I mean, you could to further charge draws, especially since some of them will have overcards. How do you respond if you get 3-bet? I think you probably have to call even though it sucks, since I'd expect some draws here and not solely Jx.
The river is an easier raise because the number of Jx combos have been cut in half, although 1/2 pot has me a little concerned. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of that river range is value hands you beat.
