Blind battle, questioning every street
$20 online MTT. Can't check this in the free version of GTOW because villain shouldn't be opening min here.
GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 250/500 (60 ante) - 6 players
Hand delivered by Pokeit
UTG: 15,493 (31 bb)
MP: 9,940 (20 bb)
CO: 10,202 (20 bb)
BU: 32,256 (65 bb)
SB: 37,869 (76 bb)
BB (Hero): 22,454 (45 bb)
Pre-Flop: (1,110) Hero is BB with A♥ 3♦
4 players fold, SB raises to 1,000, Hero calls 500
Thinking this hand should be in my 3b-bluff range.
Flop: (2,360) 7♥ K♥ 4♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 779, SB calls 779
I should probably go larger here because the small bet doesn't really help define villain's range here. Does he have a marginal Kx and going into showdown mode? Slowplayed monster? Or is he just floating OOP with a fairly wide range?
Turn: (3,918) 6♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
I think I should fire again. This card is actually good for my range because I can have all 2P combos along with lots of 5x pair+gutter combos. If he does have a capped range and isn't slowplaying a monster, I should put pressure on him here.
River: (3,918) 3♠ (2 players)
SB bets 2,939, BB (Hero) folds
Sigh. I have a bluff-catcher and I basically invited this bet with the turn check, so I think I have to be prepared to call this. The sizing doesn't look very value-ish given how I've played the hand. But I think I prefer the barrel turn line.
8 Replies
I can go either way 3b or call pre - his min raise is stupid. Flop bet looks good - we have some backdoor equity. I would barrel away hard on the turn/river - he's bluff catching with pairs less than Kx, we have a lot of good turns/rivers that are scary to him, and of course can improve. As played once you checkback the turn the hand is over - I just think on this flop texture I would unload.
So you wouldn't bluff-catch river after checking behind on the turn?
No - I think he leads the flop with flush draws, he can have a good amount of 5x, etc. With him x/c the flop he's basically letting you know he has the middle part of his range.
It seems like a strange bet size on the river for marginal value, though. It looks like I stabbed flop and gave up on turn, so why would he go for value with a 75% pot bet on the river? It kind of has that "I want to bluff but minimize my risk" feel to it.
It seems like a strange bet size on the river for marginal value, though. It looks like I stabbed flop and gave up on turn, so why would he go for value with a 75% pot bet on the river? It kind of has that "I want to bluff but minimize my risk" feel to it.
What would check call the flop then feel they need to bluff the river that you beat? 22 is about it.
I think he can have a lot of hands that will take this line and have you beaten. I looked in GtoW (ChipEv) to see how much SB is supposed to check on this flop. With a raising range pre of just shy of 30% (Gto raises 3,5 bb though) they check 43% of flops with a quite mixed strategy. If SB plays in a way that at least somewhat imitates this (and I believe many players do that) you can't say much about his range after the turn I believe. He can certainly have a good hand, and since you showed interest by betting the flop he might check again on the turn to see if you bet again.
He bets quite big, but in absence of any more specific information, can we disregard the possibility of a missed flush? The fact he has a big stack makes this more likely I think. We only need him to bluff 30% here. Can't we see him doing that?
