The Tragic Death of California
California, a once riding wave of prosperity and golden promise, is at a crossroads and is facing legitimate issues such as fiscal strain, demographic upheaval, federal policy friction, and a worsening climate crises.
From Surplus to Deficit
In 2019, California ended the fiscal year with a robust budget surplus, its reserves were at all time highs, bond ratings upgraded, and treasurer Fiona Ma proudly announced successful refinancing of debt and record bond sales. Fast-forward to 2025, state officials report a $11.8–12 billion general fund deficit, attributed to surging social care costs, healthcare (especially Medi‑Cal), and hit from Trump era trade tariffs disrupting revenue forecasts. All while several other states go from a deficit to a surplus during that time. Moreover, Cali's budget, which is heavily dependent on capital gains taxes, as accrued this deficit while the stock market currently sits at an all time high.
https://calmatters.org/politics/2025/05/...
Trump’s Immigration Tug‑of‑War
Federal immigration policy under Trump, border wall politics, tariffs, and restrictions, is worsening the issue. Surging healthcare and social-program costs, particularly for undocumented residents, have been trimmed in the new budget to save hundreds of millions. These cuts heighten tension between federal constraints and California’s economic-demographic needs. Trump now wants to kick out illegal immigrants, many who help to stabilize prices, pay taxes, but more importantly, are more needed at a time when you're in a 12b dollar deficit.
https://calmatters.org/commentary/2025/0...
The Migration Exodus
Homes burning and mortgages soaring, residents, especially families and retirees, are fleeing in credible rates. Over the past decade, net domestic outflow hit 1.3 million. In the 2010s, 6.2 million moved out, while 4.9 million moved in. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California...
Housing affordability, climate disasters, and taxation strain draw people to lower‑cost states like Texas, which is primed to surpass California in population by 2045. A recent Business Insider piece profiles a retiree saving $1,700/month by moving to Arizona after wildfire evacuations and skyrocketing insurance and utility costs. https://www.businessinsider.com/leaving-...
Climate Collapse
California endures record-breaking wildfire seasons: in 2024, roughly 1 million acres burned, destroying over 1,700 structures . January 2025 brought catastrophic blazes—30 lives lost, over 18,000 structures destroyed, and 200,000 people evacuated.
Science confirms climate change worsens these fires in frequency and intensity. These disasters—especially the most destructive—have triggered localized migration and worsened homelessness, as burnt-out homeowners can’t rebuild or afford rent. California’s wildfire-exposed communities now face a dual threat: climate and displacement .
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/...
https://www.vox.com/policy/395261/califo...
California's slide is not inevitable. But it is a serious problem, and is a problem that I personally don't think is being given enough attention.
Note: This OP was not intended to garner a bunch of high volume of partisan bullshit, but to highlight credible issues to a state that both has had and currently is receiving major economic and environmental mistakes from both parties.
I mean historically the surpluses were the outliers.
California has long been prone to booms and crippling deficits because of the sensitivity of its revenue to financial markets, and it has socked away billions to cover the hit of the next downturn. Lawmakers put $37.2 billion into reserves in the spending plan that began in July.
The legislative adviser is urging lawmakers not to tap those reserves for the upcoming deficit, but to save them for a recession. Its report anticipates future budget shortfalls, albeit smaller, through fiscal 2027.
In contrast, New York and Connecticut are seeing more general fund revenue than they forecast in their current fiscal years, and sales taxes in New York City have mostly recovered since the start of the pandemic.
California’s situation is “notable” but not a “budget crisis,” Legislative Analyst Gabriel Petek told reporters during a briefing Wednesday. He’s advising lawmakers to consider delaying disbursing funds that were allocated as one-time expenditures from the previous surplus.
“In the past, tough forecasts like this would have meant painful program cuts and middle class tax increases – things that actually cause more economic harm. That does not have to be the case this year, however,” said Senate President pro Tempore Toni Atkins in a statement. “We are confident that we can protect our progress and craft a state budget without ongoing cuts to schools and other core programs or taxing middle class families.”
I think the data on whose leaving is interesting too.
https://centerforjobs.org/ca/special-rep...
The biggest group overall is the 100-200k bracket, but seems like over 200k might be a higher proportion just guessing.
Tbh as a californian I’m still just shocked that despite all this our housing prices seem to be holding steady. A lot of people here have houses that were purchased before various housing bubbles and have a huge increase in value as a result. They could probably get much more house for their dollar in another state, but have very favorable mortgages and refinanced during the astronomically low rates in 2019.
What is really hurting us right now is our very strong labor laws. I know that will make some angry to hear, but it is truthful. Many companies want to move out and enjoy lower taxes, worse labor laws, and lower regulations. I think given the vote against the state increase in minimum wage, many are not so keen on doing that because they associate it with the inflation we’ve seen in recent years. CA is a high CoL state and not likely to change that anytime soon.
How does CA still stand out? Well we have an impressive UC system and our state schools are not bad, attracting in-state students to remain in their home state and potentially graduate to high skill, high income jobs. We have some standout medical centers. We have huge ports. Great tourism industry.
We also have the 6th most productive workforce which is not bad.
I do echo the concerns about climate change and it at least appears we are feeling the effects. A lot of this will just make it so that we have to update construction practices and use urban forestry and other techniques to reduce heat in the cities. Although some places like Death Valley may have to worry about the effects of climate change more than others.
I do think the concerns are legitimate but CA is not going to go away as a powerhouse economy any time soon. We may see a steady decline in population as well as potentially more attacks on one of the most prosperous states from the Trump administration. Of course the problems have been there even before him but he is probably one of our bigger concerns right now, with him threatening our public officials and trying to attack our school system.
California is a tale of multiple discrete regions.
Of course, there are major coastal population centers in the Bay Area and SoCal which are quite progressive. There is also the agricultural center in the Central Valley and rural areas whose politics are more conservative.
One might consider the possibility of a US central government attempting to seize the food breadbasket away from California as part of some future national emergency. I'm sure the idea of a 51st state which is conservative and adds two more conservative members to the Senate is appealing to conservatives.
What we are seeing now with ICE and military forces being sent under the heading of "immigration enforcement" may simply be the precursor for military intervention within the 50 states.
I would argue that Florida is the state which is most likely to "break" first if you wanted to rank states according to their risk level as a going concern.
California also has some shipping ports which are vital to national commercial interests.
i am not sure climate problems can be used to justify anything relative to the decline of California here given the states who are gaining in population are Florida and Texas, not cold states.
I don't want to relitigate the climatic problem ITT nor to derail but it's logically impossible to claim climate "collapse" causes migration to other hot states.
it's also quite bizzarre that no mention of paralyzing political disfunctions was made.
the high speed rail from LA to SanFra was supposed to be completed by 2020 and cost 33 billions (started in 2008).
we are in 2025 and it's not there, estimates are now 106 billions.
and this has a lot to do with disfunctions at the local (county) level.
Well Texas and Florida had a lot of room to grow economically that CA doesn’t have because its population centers are more developed
And of course TX and FL will have to deal with climate change as well.
My point is that while there will be a decline it’s going to be a slow decline, and some of the figures cited may be normal trends.
My whole extended family lived in California 40 years ago, and most of them have moved. I haven't mainly because my wife's family are all here and not going anywhere. But it is not an economically rational decision. Me and my wife wouldn't make much less if we lived in Nevada and would get WAY more bang for our buck for it. As is, we are saving very little relative to how much we could and most of our "wealth" is going to be tied into our primary home equity.
The big issue is the cost of living relative to nearby states. It is just so much cheaper to live anywhere else on the Western half of the country.
From what I can tell the "climate disaster" angle is mostly a non issue, except for the secondary effects of making everything else more expensive. I dont know a single person who left the state, or has talked about leaving the state, because it is hotter and there are more fires now than there was 40 years ago. And like Lucium noted, most people are leaving for states with "climate disaster" issues just as bad, if not worse, than California.
I causally know one person (a friend of my sisters) who lost their house in a recent fire, and they have no plans to leave the state, or even the area, because of it.
My whole extended family lived in California 40 years ago, and most of them have moved. I haven't mainly because my wife's family are all here and not going anywhere. But it is not an economically rational decision. Me and my wife wouldn't make much less if we lived in Nevada and would get WAY more bang for our buck for it. As is, we are saving very little relative to how m
The question your friends will have is how long it will take to rebuild their house from the fire .I saw that many on the beaches of Malibu will be lucky to rebuild in 3 years due to the regulations to get a permit
How does CA still stand out? Well we have an impressive UC system and our state schools are not bad, attracting in-state students to remain in their home state and potentially graduate to high skill, high income jobs.
Yeah it's pretty crazy how good/numerous California Universities are. Berkeley, UCLA, UCSB, UCI, UCR, Stanford etc. Competes with any other country in the world and even the US ex MA, NJ, NY. I wonder how big of a factor it was in California becoming so dominant in tech vs Texas. Like with stuff like NASA they could have put up a fight to compete in science and tech. I was a kid when people were still complaining about the SSC being shutdown, but it seems crazy now that the Higgs could have been discovered in Texas possibly in the 90s and maybe even SUSY or some beyond the standard model physics, though I'd bet against the later given what we know now.
Yeah it's pretty crazy how good/numerous California Universities are. Berkeley, UCLA, UCSB, UCI, UCR, Stanford etc. Competes with any other country in the world and even the US ex MA, NJ, NY. I wonder how big of a factor it was in California becoming so dominant in tech vs Texas. Like with stuff like NASA they could have put up a fight to compete in science and tech. I was
Sounds like you're familiar with this. What's your opinion on the decision to shut down the SSC?
Once they started banning gas powered small equipment that was the end of California - seriously in a state that was prone to bush fires especially if they weren't keeping up on their fire break activities it would be a recipe for disaster if people could not generate power from a gas generator
Yeah it's pretty crazy how good/numerous California Universities are. Berkeley, UCLA, UCSB, UCI, UCR, Stanford etc. Competes with any other country in the world and even the US ex MA, NJ, NY. I wonder how big of a factor it was in California becoming so dominant in tech vs Texas. Like with stuff like NASA they could have put up a fight to compete in science and tech. I was
In the last few years the UC system has gone very aggressively DEI, especially as it pertains to racial quotas and eliminating objective academic standards to get accepted (which makes it easier to enact and defend racial quotas). And the product of this is extreme racial discrimination against whites. Whites make up 34% of the population of the state, but only 20% of UC admits.
And unlike many universities in the rest of the country that initially went DEI and then did a U-turn when they saw how things weren't working; there has been very little course correction from the UC system. Will be interesting to see what this does to the quality and reputation of the system moving forward.
Once they started banning gas powered small equipment that was the end of California - seriously in a state that was prone to bush fires especially if they weren't keeping up on their fire break activities it would be a recipe for disaster if people could not generate power from a gas generator
Excessive environmental regulations without regard for how these actually affect people would definitely seem to be an issue-- like their plan to phase out gas powered vehicles.
Businesses see the state as too heavily regulated and they're able to vote with their feet just like people can.
In the last few years the UC system has gone very aggressively DEI, especially as it pertains to racial quotas and eliminating objective academic standards to get accepted (which makes it easier to enact and defend racial quotas). And the product of this is extreme racial discrimination against whites. Whites make up 34% of the population of the state, but only 20% of UC admit
lol? Can’t tell if this is parody but if you go to UCLA or Berkeley it would be pretty obvious in 5 seconds that the lack of whites is not due to DEI.
lol? Can’t tell if this is parody but if you go to UCLA or Berkeley it would be pretty obvious in 5 seconds that the lack of whites is not due to DEI.
I went to one of these schools. I assume you are referring to the percentage of Asians. That is about the same as it was 25 years ago. The difference is they are dramatically intentionally decreasing the white population in favor of Hispanic. And removing objective academic standards to give them cover to accomplish this, most notably SAT scores.
When I went there the % of whites was pretty comparable to the overall demographics of California, which was a little under 50%.
Now whites are admitted at half their demographic %. Asians are still (arguably justifiably) over-represented for merit based reasons, but there has been a very blatant social engineering project to have whites represented much lower than their demographic % or what objective standards would justify.
Sounds like you're familiar with this. What's your opinion on the decision to shut down the SSC?
I grew up in Texas and did work in and adjacent to high energy/particle physics so I’ll admit to being biased here. I think virtually everyone would say it was a big loss to Texas economically and culturally. Scientifically, who knows what lies between 13 and 40 TeV, but “not much” is a very real possibility. I’ve spent about a month at CERN as the visitor and I do think it’s better that these massive accelerators are more international. I understand the argument that US funding would be better spread out , but it’s hard not to read Weinberg’s warnings about the US losing its place as the worlds scientific leader after the cancellation as anything but prophetic given post Trump culture
I went to one of these schools. I assume you are referring to the percentage of Asians. That is about the same as it was 25 years ago. The difference is they are dramatically intentionally decreasing the white population in favor of Hispanic. And removing objective academic standards to give them cover to accomplish this, most notably SAT scores.When I went there the % of w
California has more Trump supporters than any other state and plenty of rurals. No reason to think the white percentage should equal population % on merit. The math departments at Princeton and Harvard have no DEI and whites are the minority. But I understand the low performing white/rural argument that whites need to be helped and it’s not DEI.
California's biggest existential crisis is the current administration using massive amounts of tax payer dollars to undermine the wealth and success of the state
This is probably the biggest story in the country right now that is getting zero coverage
And yeah, its probably worthwhile investment for a destructive administration that only cares about syphoning wealth and retaining power
But its probably top 5 things currently happening that are bad for the country and its citizens
this is the LEADING cause to the FAST spiral into garbage that is Kalifornia.
but if the truth be known... it began RIGHT HERE!
the buck stops with Willie Brown.
this person should be imprisoned with Jerry B. and Gavin N. and the key thrown away.
California is set to lose about 20% of its oil refineries by the end of this year and they're estimating that gas prices could go up to as much as $8/gallon.
Whatever other threats might exist, this has got to be the biggest one.
California's biggest existential crisis is the current administration using massive amounts of tax payer dollars to undermine the wealth and success of the stateThis is probably the biggest story in the country right now that is getting zero coverageAnd yeah, its probably worthwhile investment for a destructive administration that only cares about syphoning wealth and retaining
sounds like you should be a proponent of eliminating federal transfer schemes so that evil presidents cannot use them to the detriment of rich states that oppose him.
it's like when you make it at the federal level you create a safety issue for the nation, by centralizing failure points you are always just one election away from national disaster.
if only founders had predicted this and if only they gave very limited and strictly confined powers to the federal government leaving everything else at the state level... oh wait they did and you guys didn't like you so you disregarded the constitution for a century because you really wanted to decide how welfare was supposed to be in every one of the 50 states
sounds like you should be a proponent of eliminating federal transfer schemes so that evil presidents cannot use them to the detriment of rich states that oppose him.it's like when you make it at the federal level you create a safety issue for the nation, by centralizing failure points you are always just one election away from national disaster.if only founders had predicted t
don't you ever shut the **** up? you just get more and more ridiculous as time goes on
I'm fairly certain based on recent things you've said that you are a fat larp who lives in the US
Getting close to betting money on it
don't you ever shut the **** up? you just get more and more ridiculous as time goes on
I'm fairly certain based on recent things you've said that you are a fat larp who lives in the US
Getting close to betting money on it
Sounds like fun I'm in if you want action
Also you're a mod you can look up his IP. Not that that can't be spoofed.
don't you ever shut the **** up? you just get more and more ridiculous as time goes on
I'm fairly certain based on recent things you've said that you are a fat larp who lives in the US
Getting close to betting money on it
We can escrow a bet then i provide all evidence to rococo whom i can trust. From height, BMI, to age to proof of residence, IDs whatever, i can go around photographing things he asks me in my city and so on.
Can you stop derailing all thread with ad hominem attacks against me? thx.
Back to california problems, what exactly did the trump admin do in the previous 4 years to cause those massive, almost unprecedented outflows of population in decades, out of california toward republican-led states?
From what I can tell the "climate disaster" angle is mostly a non issue, except for the secondary effects of making everything else more expensive. I dont know a single person who left the state, or has talked about leaving the state, because it is hotter and there are more fires now than there was 40 years ago. And like Lucium noted, most people are leaving for states with "
I don't think the "climate disaster" has played a major role in California's **** ups, or people leaving - that's another layer of mistakes. But it's a problem that is specific to Cali, and it's a problem that is mostly in its beginning stages and it isn't just about areas that are "hot"
Cali leads the nation in destructive wildfires, with millions of homes in at risk fire areas. That's obviously a nightmare scenario for the insurers.
But another problem is that a lot of people are handcuffed in their homes - which has helped to keep Cali's real estate market competitive after a surge of interest rates. Very few mortgagors are going to be willing to sell their 900k cali home at 3% to move to a better place and pay 7%. But they definitely will when or if rates ever go back down to that.
But it's also a water issue, Cali depends on Seirra snowpack and the state has a massive agri industry in the central valley that battles a drought. Nevada is dry, but you've got less dependent people on water and farming. Texas is hot but they aren't dependent on a snowpack. The central valley rallies heavily on immigrant labor to function properly, and most farm workers are foreign born. I guess the savior there is AI but I think we've got a long way to go in that dept. Cali does have credible issues there. It's a literal shitstorm in every department.
