1-2: QQ in a 3-bet Pot vs Passive Player – River Spot Tough

I've been thinking about this type of situation a bunch (you hold QQ or maybe JJ and are 3bet by a passive player) and I think the solution is actually "4bet small preflop". Then if they come over the top, it's always AA and KK and you can fold. If you flat and the board has low cards, they could think that a weaker pair is good, so you don't know where you stand, even if they're too passive to bluff.

That said in this case, there is no weaker pair they can have since JJ just got there. A loose passive player won't triple-barrel bluff (and they also won't even bet the Turn with AK unless maybe it's exactly A♥K♥, so I think here you can fold. But if the same board had come 9 high by the River, you'd have a real problem.

All good points. I’ve also been considering the small 4b but the problem is a lot of more aware players (like this guy) will sneakily flat a 4b in position even with AA/KK, and stack us postflop when we keep barreling on these boards and have no reason to believe we’re behind.

Also - it would be a disaster if he’s the type to 5b jam AK, and we fold QQ.

If we assume his 3b range is TT+,AK, by the river we lose to everything but AK non hearts. We would also need him to bluff AK at the same frequency he value bets AA/TT/KK/etc which is never true. If we make the argument he bluffs AKhh AKdd at the same frequency, one combo gets there OTR so now it's just one AK combo we beat. The river is a clear fold - I think the more interesting decision is the turn. Most live players in this spot with bare AK aren't just unloading in these spots unless you have very specific reads. I honestly wouldn't mind folding the turn and moving on - if he really is that tight preflop and probably checks behind the turn with JJ,AKo we can save some money here. I think at low stakes live making these laydowns are the way to go - you should be able to print money in small pots but a big mistake against an obvious nutted range can kill your winrate.

Yeah agree this is a significant risk with the 4bet. I still think it's the lesser of two evils though, I haven't seen the trapping occur that frequently. (Though, it's not like I have a ton of data here, either.)

Yeah, I mean, the entire strategy is based on people only 5betting AA and KK. Theoretically, people could hard-counter the 4bet approach by 5betting any two cards they 3bet with, not just AK. But it almost never happens, imE.

You don’t think he can bet turn with JJ?

True but not sure how relevant that is here if players are unbalanced.

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If villain is genuine older loose-passive then it's a clear fold on the river and even folding turn is worth considering. As others have suggested, even if he's semi-bluffing with AK dd/hh that's only 4 bluff combos versus 15+ value combos on the river, plus his sizing on the turn seems value heavy. I don't believe 4betting QQ preflop is worthwhile if you're intending to fold to a 5bet, but 4betting QQ OOP for value does have some merit at this stack depth, although probably not against this player type.

Fold preflop

Loose passive recs don’t 3bet TT+/AK

Grunch:

PRE - how old, and how loose-passive is V here? The older he is, and the more loose-passive he is, the more inclined I'd be to fold.

Also - does he have any sizing tells? Is a $45 3B here indicative of TT/JJ, and a $55 3B usually AA/KK?

The problem is we're not starting out all that deep, and we'll be OOP. If we don't flop a set, what's the plan? Are we just going to play this like a bluff-catcher, and check-call the whole way?

If we think his 3B range is just TT+/AK, but he's taking a large size while IP, I think my preferred line would be to 4B to $125 and fold if he jams, or fold.

FLOP - Okay, he's bet 1/3 pot. Easy check-call.

TURN - This is where I think we need to plan ahead. If we check again, we should expect V to bet large when the BDFD appears. I think we could donk / block here, for 1/2 pot, with plans to fold if he raises, which I don't think he's doing with JJ or AK.

As played, I'd feel pretty sick seeing this bet size, and would definitely lean towards folding.

RIVER - We don't beat anything he'd bet for value here. He's not doing this with QJ, ever. We need him to be bluffing a lot to call this off. And what are his bluffs when we double-block AQ and KQ? He'd have to be doing this with AK, and I'm not sure an older LP player has the stones to go raise-bet-bet-jam with ace-high.

Definitely not calling this off. If he's bluffing, nice bet, good game.

Respectfully...

1. Most low stakes players are turbo-jamming AA/KK when you 4B here. If they're good enough to flat with those hands, that's fine. Just check to them on the flop, and see what they do.

Say the percentage of low stakes players who flat the 4B with AA/KK pre is 10% (I doubt it's that high, but go with me here). What percentage of that 10% are going to check-back the flop? Probably 10% of that 10%? That's 1%.

The other 9% are going to bet when you check, because they want value for their hand. And most of them are going to bet bigger with AA/KK than they will with TT-QQ or AK, because we could be checking to check-raise, or just slow-playing.

Just 4B small pre, with plans to fold if they 5B jam. Otherwise, proceed on the flop as you would if you knew they had TT or JJ, which is to say, bet small enough to keep them in the hand with TT or JJ, and avoid pot-committing yourself in the event they have AA/KK.

2. It's not a disaster if he 5B jams AK, and we fold QQ, if we think his 5B-jamming range is just KK+/AK. We're not doing great against that range.

It's a disaster if our read is wrong and he's jamming TT+/AQs.

Don't underestimate the power of small bets and small raises. The larger we go with our bet and raise sizing, the easier it is for our opponents to play perfectly, even more so when they're in position.

The smaller we go with our bet and raise sizing, the more they have to think about how they want to respond. Very often, their response will tip their hand strength or maximize the value we get with ours.

Older, LP player has suddenly decided to be aggressive on all streets. On this board?

Near 100% chance this is KK+. Fold.

Played fine so far, now fold. Geometric sizings too, might be a case for a turn fold, although it's a pretty safe board and there's plenty of JJ in there so I'd still call turn. Someone said fold preflop which would be absurd unless you have an insanely strong read, and if your read is TT+/AK (which you obviously worry may be a bit off as you start speculating about hands like AQ/KQ shortly afterwards) then the fold would be ludicrous. But it is UTG vs MP so you definitely do need to give the 3bet suitable respect