Is The Epstein Pivot That Big A Deal

lol your denial of objective reality, including markets for all assets except bonds (=so risk on, optimism rallyiny) rallying in melt up when the BBB was passed, is record breaking.

Hawley is pure MAGA from the economics of it (and also a lot culturally) and already voted repeatedly in a way that makes him infinitely preferable to Warren for the economy, it's not like even remotely close at all.

What about MTG voting pattern (or declarations, or support for proposals even if they weren't floored) makes you think she would be atrocious for the economy more than doubling federal taxes?

And we are talking clearly one of the worst republican senators, and members of the house, of the last 50+ years.

Warren consultants (Saez and Zucman) which she completly endorsed, want, aside from a wealth tax, a 55-70% marginal income tax rate (federal) and to roughly double federal fiscal revenue as a % of gdp from 15-17 to 30-35. That's infinitely worse than anything Tucker ever said about the economy. AOC plans are more "cloudy" (not much in terms of numbers black on white) but she endorsed the economic opinion of people who are even to the left of Saez and Zucman.

We are talking Piketty levels of extremism, we are talking the radical economic left in europe levels of extremism.

You probably are aware that markets aren't the economy and what the bond market is starting to price in. Its the same drum I've been beating this whole time so someone with your intelligence could probably figure out that I'm positioned to do just fine in the days to come.

In 3 days we will have June inflation and we will start to be able to assess claims, right?

First estimates for Q2 GDP on july 30th. Gdpnow says +2.5% for now.

You are already on record denying trump tariffs are already in place and raking in money (30bln in June) .

1. Probably not

2. Okay?

3. There were tariffs under Biden. How much more is this than was collected in June 2024? Is it even a good thing that consumers are paying more?

Dems made it up

Also if they had anything they would have released it

lol

Bro seems like he’s spiraling

Lol your claim was that trump tariffs weren't implemented yet.

For the first nine months of fiscal 2025, the customs take reached records of $113.3 billion on a gross basis and $108 billion on a net basis, nearly double the prior-year collections. The government's fiscal year ends on Sept. 30.

https://www.reuters.com/business/trumps-...

So can you admit you were factually wrong in an absolute way in denying trump tariffs had been already implemented and i was 100% factually right about it? remember we have the receipts of your claims about this, when you said inflation wasn't going up because the tariffs hadn't been implemented yet.

So if june inflation data doesn't come very high would you admit that , factually, *doubling existing tariffs isn't necessarily that much inflationary*?

"is it a good thing" is a completly different topic that i already answered at length. No it's not good to tax stuff in general unless absolutely indispensable for the survival of the core functions of the state. All taxes of all kind above the absolute minimum indispensable for those core functions to be funded are morally horrific and a violationf of human rights.

Tariffs impoverish people. But they aren't necessarily inflationary.

Assuming that chart is right then its right in line with what Yale is saying that it will add to CPI about 2%, which is certainly less than I expected but also makes sense when Trump was threatening 60-200% tarrifs and we are around 30% for the year and just now started 45%

I said we should start to see inflation in June/July but I wont admit I am wrong until we finish out the year with no noticeable hit from tariffs assuming everything stays the same. But things keep changing.

There are many reasons to see lags in inflation. Mainly inventory times through China are 3-6 months and many companies stocked up early in the year on excess inventory to combat expected tariff inflations.

The chart is how much tariffs are as a % of total federal fiscal revenue. I don't know why you think +3% of federal fiscal revenue (which is 15% of gdp) means +2% to the CPI.

Not sure you have followed China is in insane deflation (-3.6% last reading). Have you fathomed the possibility chinese exporters are going to eat a huge portion of the tariffs themselves by lowering pre-tariffs prices?

There's no way they're not already in a deflationary spiral to some degree. They have to clear goods.

Net importers can absorb overcapacity domestically but China is in the opposite camp. They have no choice but to create export demand one way or another because they can't absorb it domestically. At least if they don't want to worsen the spiral. But I don't know if they even know that or really understand how free market economies function:

It's like they only know a bull market. Then again maybe I don't understand how a control economy can just order people to work, or factories to keep capacity up.

Looks like some heel turning. Good to know that people’s beliefs systems are fluid. Sad to know they’re just cool with rapists, racism, etc and just draw the line at pedophilia

Which policies of Mandami do you find so objectionable Lucifer ?

Is it true he wished to tax white neighbourhoods more, or did he mean richer neighbourhoods and this was misinterpreted, due to white neighbourhoods in specific boroughs being wealthier? Was the "white" aspect merely seized upon by the right?

Where, did you get this?, I have said, that, Epstein, is, completely, guilty, and that, would, be, true, whether, or, not, he made, a written list. It was the "pivot" by, others that, i, called "no big, deal", not, the actual crimes.

(Alan Dershowitz said he knows all about the list, but I don't, think he claims to have actually seen, it. As to, Epstein's, death, he might, have been murdered, if there, was no list, and he, might have, committed, suicide if there, was one. Another, example, of, an, interesting, questions whose, answers, indicates, little.)

comma, comma, comma, comma,comma

nobody thinks like this other than you

This is something I brought up at the time years ago. But Eric Weinstein is an investment banker who did a podcast for a few years and talked about Epstein a little. Anyways, he said he actually had a business meeting at Epstein's house once many years ago, before any allegations had been made against him. A few notes. He said the house had cameras everywhere in a very obvious way, so you knew you were being recorded the entire time you were there. And he said his takeaway from the meeting was Epstein was an actor pretending to be an investment banker (at that time he had no clue why) and he never followed up on whatever business Epstein was pitching and never talked to Epstein again.

Anyways, at the time (and continually since) Weinstein said if you were really interested in what was going on in Epstein's world, and who it was going on with, you would investigate the money trail over the years; especially his so called investment bank. And so far no one has even pretended to attempt to do this, and in his opinion this indicates all the investigations and public discourse is kayfabe (fake).

In fairness, a lot of people think like this. They just live in places like Iran and Yemen and the Israeli West Bank and believe they are guided by supernatural forces.

Eh, a couple of queens read a book to kids in a library, and the right's mantra became that Democrats were the party of pedophilia. Now that there is an actual confirmed pedo that Trump campaigned on draining the swamp by releasing the files and... you have lost interest.

In fairness, Democrats never seem particularly interested in releasing any Epstein files when Biden was in office. Their sudden interest now seems very opportunistic, to say the least.

If/When Democrats retake the presidency and congress (which could be sooner rather than later) they will have ample opportunity to release any Epstein files, but I am going to go out on a limb and predict this isn't going to happen.

As some point we have to accept no one in power really wants pertinent information released, in either party. And most calls to release information is political opportunism. And either you view this as a big problem, or you just shrug your shoulders and say this is how the world works and you dont view it as a problem.

Are you blaming Biden for Trump's pivot? Trump campaigned on releasing the files. They even brought a bunch of influencers to the White House and gave them folders. Pretty stupid to do all that if he's just going to get angry when people ask him about following through.

But yes, in reality, both sides of the aisle are implicated, so it will never see the light of day. Trump used it as a bargaining chip and it backfired on him. Any citizen, regardless of political affiliation, should want these horrific people exposed.

This is just a truly stupid way of looking at things

Trump made pandering to conspiracy theories (including Epstein) and promising delivery on said conspiracy theories (including Epstein) a central tenet of every campaign and attempted to deliver on that with BINDERS!!!!!!

Regardless of whether or not Dems give a **** about Epstein, when trump does this much of a 180 on something this shamelessly and insists that nobody bring it up again, anyone and everyone should respond to that level of bullshit with ‘show your work’ and should not let up til it’s shown

One thing to remember.

Republicans want all democrat pedophiles arrested and charged but not their republican ones.

Democrats want all pedophiles charged, regardless of their political affiliation.

Pretty sure the Dems released all the information they were going to release in 2015 and wiped their hands clean of the mess.

If you want to persist that they were covering it up in 2015 then I can get on board with that

If you want to claim that in 2025 the Dems are doing a flip flop then I think you are misinformed