Break even call question
Lets say someone shoved all in on you, then you determine that you are getting the exact pot odds to make this a break even call, you already have 300 dollars in the pot.
Does it matter if you fold or call at that point?
Would you actually be losing money to not make the break even call because you will lose the money you already put into the pot or would folding have the same EV as calling the only difference being you are lowering the amount of variance you experience by folding?
If you would be losing money by not making the break even call, just how below break even would you want to make a call before it is no longer worth it?
7 Replies
In a vacuum it doesn't for obvious reasons. If this is a donkament and not cash then it is different. If you think that your decision will influence your opponents going forward, then that is on you as to whether you think this neutral EV action is beneficial for you in the long run
In a vacuum it doesn't for obvious reasons. If this is a donkament and not cash then it is different. If you think that your decision will influence your opponents going forward, then that is on you as to whether you think this neutral EV action is beneficial for you in the long run
I was actually thinking about this question a lot.
It does matter, if you are in a position where you are getting a break even call it is negative EV to fold. The only way to break even in this situation is to call if you fold every time you have a break even call you are printing your opponent money.
Furthermore I believe I have a formula to determine if you should call or fold even if you are not getting a break even call.
If you determine that a break even call is 20 percent equity and you have 19 percent equity and you already have a bunch of money in the pot you will be losing money by calling but you are losing more money if you fold.
I was actually thinking about this question a lot.It does matter, if you are in a position where you are getting a break even call it is negative EV to fold. The only way to break even in this situation is to call if you fold every time you have a break even call you are printing your opponent money.Furthermore I believe I have a formula to determine if you should call or fold
By definition, a break even call is neutral EV. The decision about whether it is a profitable call takes into account the money in the pot. If you have 100 in your stack, and you fold, you have 100 in your stack. You do not lose money by folding. What you give up is the chance to put more money in the pot, in hopes of winning. You determine if this is a good idea based on the amount you stand to win, relative to the amount you have to wager. If you determine that it is break even, then, by definition, it means that if you did ran this a large number of times you would end up with exactly the same amount of money if you called every time or if you folded every time. If you repeatedly call with 19% when you need 20%, you will end up doing worse than if you repeatedly folded in those situations.
The bottom line is that if you would do better by calling than by folding, then it is NOT a break even decision. It is a +EV situation. Remember, you never have money in the pot - once you put money in the pot it is no longer yours.
By definition, a break even call is neutral EV. The decision about whether it is a profitable call takes into account the money in the pot. If you have 100 in your stack, and you fold, you have 100 in your stack. You do not lose money by folding. What you give up is the chance to put more money in the pot, in hopes of winning. You determine if this is a good idea based on the a
You’re right, I was wrong. I ran some other scenarios and realized if it’s a break even call it is a break even fold if you don’t account for implied odds.
Thanks for your reply.
Lets say someone shoved all in on you, then you determine that you are getting the exact pot odds to make this a break even call, you already have 300 dollars in the pot.Does it matter if you fold or call at that point?Would you actually be losing money to not make the break even call because you will lose the money you already put into the pot or would folding have the same EV
At equilibrium if you're offered a 0 EV call, which occurs when pot odds = equity, then the frequency at which you call will be such that the opponent has 0 EV bluffs. For a given bet and no other variables to be considered this would be at a frequency of bet/(bet+pot). For a pot sized bet this is equal to 1/(1+1) or 1/2. This is to make the opponent indifferent to bluffing. If you fold in excess of this value, then the opponent should always bluff. If you fold less than this value, then the opponent should never bluff. Equilibrium occurs when your folding frequency is equal to bet/(bet+pot) which makes opponent indifferent to bluffing.
i like how complicated mathematical statements just roll off brokenstar's tongue. we would all be lucky to understand river math so fluidly.
op should learn the ins and outs of brokenstars explanation. every sentence matters.
this will provide the framework for all future river exploitation for the op, but nobody will spoon feed it to you. you got to put in the work.
i like how complicated mathematical statements just roll off brokenstar's tongue. we would all be lucky to understand river math so fluidly.
op should learn the ins and outs of brokenstars explanation. every sentence matters.
this will provide the framework for all future river exploitation for the op, but nobody will spoon feed it to you. you got to put in the work.
Thank you for the compliment.
