AQ in HJ: Check or bet top trips?
1/2, rake 6, promo 3.
V1 (300) is a loose-passive Jamaican regular. He’s socially aware and identifies tells. However, he plays about 45 percent of his hands and calls too much. He open limps his low pairs and limp-calls KJo. He three-bets only with QQ+, AK. On the flop, he folds against aggression unless he has TP or better. On the turn and river, he has called at least two big bets with second top-pair and lost. He rarely bluffs except on the river at the end of the night.
V2 (150) looks like Ms. Stetson, my math teacher from 1978, glasses, good posture, around 60. I guess she plays mostly with her friends and wins. She has limped half her range, mostly folded to aggression on the flop, but also called the river with second pair and once with TPBK.
Hero (covers) has a nitty image to V1. V1 thinks hero rarely bluffs. Hero indeed has the tightest range on the table, and when V1 calls, hero has always had the goods. V2 is paying attention to her hand only.
OTTH
LJ posts 2. Hero opens HJ 11 with AhQd. V1 in CO calls. SB folds. V2 in BB calls. LJ folds.
Flop (32): QcQsJh
V2 checks. Hero?
18 Replies
Bet $10. You can bet this board in this configuration a lot. Plus, you have a great hand.
The problem with checking here is that your opponents love to slow-play trips and may check back with hands like QT and KQ, which is a disaster for you. Better to put in a small bet and hope it induces something from weaker Qx, AJ, or some sort of bluff.
I probably size up to 15 as an exploit targeting straight draws and a jack. Not worried about balancing against these two.
It could be that 1/3 pot is better since anyone folding KT would be terrible.
So in the hand, I thought, you are way ahead, let them catch up. After the hand, I thought, if hero bets, V1 calls QT and KQ and raises QJ and JJ, maybe calls AJ, definitely folds AK and small pairs and all the junk. If hero bets, V2 folds everything but QT and KQ.
Hero actually checks. V1 checks.
Turn: 8c
V2 checks. Hero?
So in the hand, I thought, you are way ahead, let them catch up, if you check three-way oop a lot against observant players, you have to have check-raising range too. V1 knows that . After the hand, I thought, if hero bets, V1 calls QT and KQ and raises QJ and JJ, maybe calls AJ, definitely folds AK and small pairs and all the junk. If hero bets, V2 folds everything but QT and KQ.
Hero actually checks. V1 checks.
Turn: 8c
V2 checks. Hero?
So in the hand, I thought, you are way ahead, let them catch up, if you check three-way oop a lot against observant players, you have to have check-raising range too. V1 knows that . After the hand, I thought, if hero bets, V1 calls QT and KQ and raises QJ and JJ, maybe calls AJ, definitely folds AK and small pairs and all the junk. If hero bets, V2 folds everything but QT and
Loose passive opponents may show up with every single combo of KQ, QT, Q9, Q8, AJ, KJ, JT, J9, J8, J7, AT, KT, K9, T9, T8, TT, 99, 88, etc. None of those hands are folding to a $10 cbet.
There are only three total combos of QJ, and JJ can probably be discounted because the villains may 3b it at frequency. I also think an inferior trips is MUCH more likely to raise than a full house.
As played, I would bet something like $25. No longer loving life if we get raised because several hands (T9, Q8, 88) are now ahead of us, but you can never fold.
Results
Hero bets 15. Everyone folds.
Obv. played too much meta game and GTOWizard in this hand. Thanks for keeping me honest.
heres why slow playing this is bad
1) when you slowplay AAx, KKx, QQx boards its obvious to bad players because what bad players do
2) when you CR the flop or turn you get no action from worse hands because of #1
3) people arent going to bet their draws for you on AAx, KKx, and QQx boards.
if you want to slowplay OOP do it special circumstances, like when you raise 77 and flop a set on an 975 two tone board where if you check everyone will assume you have whiffed overs. then if you CR the flop big people wont know what to make of it because youd do the same thing with a flush draw.
This time I fully agree with nitty…
I think you have to become ok with betting $15 on the flop and everyone folding. Kinda like betting $15 pre with aces and everyone folding
Some very good regs hit their hand & start pot-sized barreling. Someone plays sheriff and calls them down or everyone folds, on to the next.
One guy describes it - you target the top of their range, because if they have that you win a huge pot. When they fold, don’t think letting them catch up would have worked.
heres why slow playing this is bad1) when you slowplay AAx, KKx, QQx boards its obvious to bad players because what bad players do2) when you CR the flop or turn you get no action from worse hands because of #13) people arent going to bet their draws for you on AAx, KKx, and QQx boards.if you want to slowplay OOP do it special circumstances, like when you raise 77 and flop a s
Agree with all of this, but I want to add:
Sometimes when you check AQ on QQJ, the IP player may check back with QX to trap because fish often like to trap these spots. This is a disaster for you.
Sometimes when you check/raise AQ on QQJ, the IP player may bet/fold a hand like JX, because they recognize that it is so easy for you to have QX (and because people don't bluff this spot much). Whereas if you just bet/bet/bet, they will call down 2 or even 3 streets with JX.
Was pretty sure this wasn't correct unless you did some hand crafted sims (obviously straddle/sizings/etc aren't correct here but it's as close as is reasonable).
So checked GTOwiz HU...
HJ opens 2bb
BB calls
Flop: QcQsJh
BB checks pure
HJ bets 33% pot with 80% of range, and it's mixed so that checks are roughly half the combos. of TT/99/88/J9s and bits of a lot of other hands (although some pure bet, like A3s/A2s/33/22/K8s/A9o). Worth noting that AQo and AQs also never check (all of the other Qx and JJ hands do check sometimes, although not often).
If we go into the 20% weeds and check back then on 8c turn...
Turn: QcQsJh 8c
BB leads with bluffs and Qx hands, but is still checking ~82%
HJ basically bets 50% range for 33% pot, and checks.
1/2, rake 6, promo 3. V1 (300) is a loose-passive Jamaican regular. He’s socially aware and identifies tells. However, he plays about 45 percent of his hands and calls too much. He open limps his low pairs and limp-calls KJo. He three-bets only with QQ+, AK. On the flop, he folds against aggression unless he has TP or better. On the turn and river, he has called at least two bi
i think betting 1/3 or 1/4 pot is god smlal bet and if they ! you can go for big 3! value OTF no? this is true for the 1/2 live pop right?
HJ opens 2bb
BB calls
Flop: QcQsJh
BB checks pure
HJ bets 33% pot with 80% of range,
If we go into the 20% weeds and check back then on 8c turn...
Turn: QcQsJh 8c
BB leads with bluffs and Qx hands, but is still checking ~82%
HJ basically bets 50% range for 33% pot, and checks.
Thanks for the info. Too bad I canceled my subscription to GTOWizard
Grunch:
PRE - based on your reads I wonder if we could increase our raise size a bit with these two V's left to act.
FLOP - We can bet small, like maybe $8. If we thought either opponent was likely to start betting Jx or bluffing with air, I might check, but these two don't sound like they'd be doing that.
If we think they're likely to call a larger bet but fold most turns, maybe we could go a TAD larger, like $10 or even $12.
If we bet small and get one call, I'd probably bet small again on the turn, like 1/2 pot. If they both call, it's a little trickier, but I could see going larger to charge their draws, or smaller, just trying to keep them in the pot with all their worse value hands.
So in the hand, I thought, you are way ahead, let them catch up. After the hand, I thought, if hero bets, V1 calls QT and KQ and raises QJ and JJ, maybe calls AJ, definitely folds AK and small pairs and all the junk. If hero bets, V2 folds everything but QT and KQ.
Hero actually checks. V1 checks.
Turn: 8c
V2 checks. Hero?
At this point, we have to bet, and since we're less likely to get credit for having a big hand, I'd size way up. Pot it, or even a slight over-bet.
It just sucks that T9 gets there. If we bet big and get called, we're praying to boat up on the river, so we can cooler T9. If we don't boat up, I think I'm mostly check-evaluating, and over-folding to any big bets.
Results
Hero bets 15. Everyone folds.
Obv. played too much meta game and GTOWizard in this hand. Thanks for keeping me honest.
Sometimes we have a huge hand and they have nothing, and there's nothing we can do to get value from them. It's hard for them to have enough strong hands that can call any bet of any size here, when the flop checks through and action checks to you again on the turn.
That's why I advocated for a big bet on the turn. They're mostly folding no matter what size you bet, but if someone has a hand that wants to call, they're likely to call a big bet after you check the flop.
A tip from Bart Hanson, about what to do when you have the board crushed. Instead of slow-playing by checking, just bet small. Get SOME money into the pot, even if it's only a little bit.
