2025 World Series of Poker May 27th - July 16th

When the AQ v KJ hand went up on the screen, it should have read Grinder 95%, Kenny 5%

Correct, you are the only one.

yep. Incredible stuff for him. My boy Alex Lynskey laddered to 6th on his ME FT about 5 years ago despite not winning a hand the entire FT.

But I couldn't believe Wasnock wasn't even smiling in the interview before Heads Up started! That guy can never complain about variance for the rest of his life.

also...truly horrific punt from Dunaway calling the All In with the 10 6 sooted

yea wtf was that. didn't he have like 10 bb?

20M if he folds but it's effectively 1m/5m and they're 3 handed I think it's a fold but it's a bad spot. He's going to have to take a stand somewhere soon with some crap.

All things considered, this year’s main was probably the most engaging ME since the heydays.

Given his skill level, Dunaway may have run hotter than Mizrachi to reach the ft. Wild that he’s done it before. Tournament poker at it’s finest.

Yea losing $6M an orbit 3-handed with $20M, he has to try something fast. If he waited for all-in later, he’d surely get called in 2 spots with the obligatory check down, he probably was just hoping his 2 cards were live plus flush draw equity, not horribad given situation and dynamics.

I'm watching the T6 hand again. PokerGO graphics say Dunaway has 21M chips after posting the BB and ante.

At 1M/2.5M blinds, there's 6M dead money in there. Grinder puts him all in. So he has to pay 21M more to win a pot of roughly 48M (21+21+6).

My math says he needs about 43.8% to be break-even. With Th6h, here is his equity against a small sample of possible hands:

34.48% vs. KsJs
42.58% vs. As5s
31.75% vs. 9h9c
38.40% vs. AsKc

Basically as long as you aren't dominated by something like AT, A6, or TT, you are getting close to the right price to call.

I think it's probably a fold because we are still deep enough to have some fold equity when we rip from SB or UTG.

However, with <10BB and by far the shortest stack (20M vs. 80M vs. 465M), it isn't some type of mondo punt.

He took a thin gamble spot and lost.

Honestly don’t think T6 is that bad of a call. I realize that sounds insane but come on. Wasnock was committed to folding to 2nd if it came to that, Miz made it clear he was gonna have infinite aggression, Dunaway wasn’t going to have too many orbits and if he folded there he would make it impossible to have any kind of fold equity if he open shoved so you’re just praying you find a hand with a dwindling stack to race with

Grinder literally is jamming ATC there. Just bad luck he had him to 3 outs

Half as long as the 2nd shortest final table in 2023 which had 164 hands.

That is wild, I know there were a handful of coolers where money always goes in but it just shows how hot MM ran again.

How many of the bust out hands did Grinder do / win himself ?

4. Hendrix, halleart, dunaway and Waz

Halleart knocked out margets and I think minghini.
Waz knocked out lee and bojovic.

thanks. Felt like more

Next question....how many straight all ins did Grinder win going back to day 8?

And for bonus points....what was the % chance he won all of them?

The T6 call off seems objectively terrible but I’ll defer to the wizards

Yeah, I noticed that. He had about 9xBB and it was a SB open push from the chipleader. Second place had way more than he did, so not so big ICM issues. I am not a wizard, but I would fold. Would look more to open shove with some FE. Think it is actually pretty close, and the call is definitely cEV+ versus Mizrachi's shoving range.

The T6 call was definitely the call of a guy who went through yesterday’s HHs and concluded it could have been 53o

Edit: I am no wizard

Calling the button the small blind when HU is odd

lol wut

Had written a longer post but it timed out:

T6ss is a very average hand, slightly behind any 2 random cards, but still not a horrible call needing only 43.75% to break even. Grinder needs to be shoving 75% for that, which is probably too wide even for Grinder (who may limp) but Grinder could easily be shoving 60% plus.

T6ss is 39.5% vs 50% rangg
41.1% vs 60% range

So let's say at worst his call is -630K Cev off a 21M stack. (because he has roughly 3% lower equity than he wants).

I think there are valid poker reasons for him to recognize this is a slightly losing call but decide to go with it anyway, especially if he feels he is the weakest of the three remaining players.

Dunaway put in a very sketch raise with 73ss yesterday, so he might be partial to janky suited hands in general.

You have never been more wrong.

Grinder GOAT

Pretty much. Doug Polk made a nice video highlighting the key hands Mizrachi played on Days 8–10. In big pots where either he or his opponent was all in, the Grinder went 10 for 10. Polk calculated his chance of winning all those confrontations at 0.14%.

How funny was it when Grinder was proclaiming, with one card to come, “it’s over!, it’s over!”, and not understanding why his rail wasn’t going bonkers along with him cuz he didn’t realize the FH outs lol.