10NL 3bp facing turn jam with QQ
So preflop 3 bb open fine I think, since there's a special case on CO.
Not liking getting 3bet by BB with those stats, though the sample isn't massive. Not sure though since some people are positionally not very aware, and are therefore 3betting looser than theory against EP, and tighter than theory against LP. I'm also under the impression that people tend to 3bet *less* OOP against larger opens, which is exactly the opposite of what they should be doing. Could be a wrong impression though. If they do have a proper 3b range vs 3 bb open here, then there's nothing very interesting going on in this hand, but I'm pretty sure that's not the case with those preflop stats.
Should we think about folding turn here?
4 Replies
iPoker - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BB: 137.9 BB (VPIP: 21.97, PFR: 17.34, 3Bet Preflop: 3.94, Hands: 350)
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
MP: 107.4 BB (VPIP: 22.93, PFR: 15.66, 3Bet Preflop: 3.65, Hands: 2, 755)
CO: 84.1 BB (VPIP: 59.87, PFR: 0.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.17, Hands: 1, 227)
BTN: 174.9 BB (VPIP: 21.94, PFR: 16.56, 3Bet Preflop: 8.13, Hands: 1, 889)
SB: 102.1 BB (VPIP: 23.65, PFR: 18.22, 3Bet Preflop: 7.94, Hands: 7, 538)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♠ Q♥
Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 13 BB, Hero calls 10 BB
Flop: (26.5 BB, 2 players) 6♦ T♥ 4♠
BB bets 19.8 BB, Hero calls 19.8 BB
Turn: (66.1 BB, 2 players) J♣
BB bets 105.1 BB, Hero calls 67.2 BB
River: (200.5 BB, 2 players) 8♠
Spoiler
Hero mucks Q♠ Q♥ (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 18%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
BB shows K♥ K♣ (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 82%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
BB wins 194.5 BB
Rake paid 6 BB
I think folding turn is the right thing to do. Would be a marginal +EV call but he needs to have AJ, KQ AQ AK for that to be true.
Villain with his 4% 3bet and being in the tighest 3bet configuration (BBvsUTG) gives him a superstrong range here (imho QQ+ and AK).
That would be:
16 combos of AK
6 combos of AA
6 combos of KK
1 combo of QQ
Based on my experience (NL10 on PS) people are very rarely shoving the turn here with AK - especially without any flushdraws out there. Therefore, I think we have to find a nitty fold here.
If we were to expand villains range and add TT/JJ and AQ to his range, I believe the conclusion is the same.
Yeah I tend to agree with you guys.
A few things that I think play a part in this in addition to what you said..
1. 3 bb open is due to the CO being a pretty big whopper, and none of the others seem to be 3betting very aggressively. Like I said before I do think that sizing faces less 3bets from especially the blinds.
2. UTG should have a super polarized 3bet range here, which probably should exclude AKo, JJ, TT etc., and then the premiums are balanced by ALs, LSC, KLs etc. However, I think most players at this stake go pretty linear here, and therefore AJs. KQs, QJs *might* be there as well preflop.
3. I think Villain's flop sizing is strongish and therefore I think we can rule out AJs, KQs, QJs.
Yeah this wasn't a snap call by any means in game, but it's going to be a snap fold next time. Could even argue folding up to JJ here pre but then again any pair is a pretty decent set mine against those stats, just have to be able to make pretty big lay downs post 😃
