The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Proof proof whats a proof anyway?

Man now you gave me something to think about its true i cant prove the non existence of a rig!

whats a logical fallacy again?

anyway not important either.

If charly carrel made an offhand comment thats good enough for me especially of there might have been an episode of poker after dark or a similar show in which players may or may not have joked about something or not who knows.

Also your ground breaking suggestion that the sites you dont trust would just haver to open their books is eye opening. its not like you would just claim that these cheating bastards obviously falsified their data to protect the rig.

Of course sites should share all hand histories of all players with names and everything with everybody there is no possible way this could be abused.

Man this is such an amazing idea you should be the one called amazing not that other fool.

You have single handedly solved this!

Its almost as if you have no idea how do play poker.

Its also almost as if the biggest market with the best fish to reg ratio in the world was removed from the global player pool and that makes games tougher on average.

Its also almost as if the fact we are in a huge economic down turn and disposal income is harder to come by these days which would influence the amount of money that goes in the poker industry via recreationals.

When i think about it is almost as if external factors along with advancements in poker theory and study have made games much much tougher on average.

But yeah its probably just the rig!

yeah its almost as if that guy is just a way better player than you.

Actually so much better that you dont even understand what he does.

Its almost as if he runs you over and you overfold to get it in with the best hand all the time.

Its almost as if you were a good poker player and understand the game this would be the first thing you check.

But yeah probably just rigged. actually 100% rigged how else would you explain a long term winning player winning.

The RNG is being audited. And it surpassed the test over millions of hands. These sites have a certified and tested fair rng. Its not as solid of an evidence piece as charlie carrell making an off-the-cuff remark but saying its not been audited is just wrong.

Also, you can buy millions of mined hands to actually prove something. It can easily be done, but somehow riggies dont actually want to do the work and see proof, they want to believe in conspiracies and rant about them.

If you really think the skill level of an average player today is the same as it was pre black friday im just afraid you really dont know enough about poker to be successful in it. The level of play has gotten so much better since then and not noticing that is the sign of someone who is lacking poker knowledge.

What do you think of some of Galfond quote's that he says "No major site is rigged", "Sites would be idiots to rig their decks" and "if you think the rng is rigged you are not ready to be a winner"...
Do you give those quotes the same weight as charlie carrell saying "if its online i would have folded but now im not so sure" ?

"No major site"

Retard, every site that isn't PokerStars is 100% rigged.

Superusers, RNG designed for setups, collision, bots etc this is all under the umbrella.

There is no way in hell these outcomes are legitimate.

"Yea but I can't play on those websites" we know stupid. Even in just this thread, all these hands on their own individual don't mean much. Them happening one after the other constantly every time I play?

How often are you seeing full house over full house 3x in an hour?

How often are you seeing your flopped straight see the same guy flop a higher straight?

They always share cards with you?

It always comes runner runner?

"Well you know sometimes that stuff just happens" does it? But mostly it doesn't right?

"Sometimes AA gets busted by A9 to runner runner 9" Oh so like if that same situation happens 100x I should expect to win 96 yet somehow I'm losing every other time?

Funny too how the guys SO CONFIDENT never ever end up putting up the money? Weird how that works.

At the end of the day retard, we just want a legitimate site to play on. There isn't a chance in hell everytime I play online it's nothing but massive coolers "naturally".

The point always goes over your head because you still don't get the math and probability or you're just lying because you refuse to admit you have been proven wrong.

I'll quote myself about AI. I would believe AI over someone like you every day. That doesn't mean I would take it over wikipedia or a real expert, but over someone like you, yeah.

In other word high school and no you do not have a decent mathematical background. Statistics isn't that high of a level of math, and you have proven you don't have any understanding of it.

Is there anyone on this forum you would trust as an expert? maybe zip all your hands and ask in MTT forum to check if the distribution is sound?

I also only trust sources that agree with my preconceived notions or I can twist and cherrypick until i feel like they support my already existing world view.

It is comforting and I never have to confront my own failures.

I agree that language models that are crafted to give the operator answers in line with what he wants to hear are the best possible way to get confirmation for my cooky believes.

I didnt study statistics, I studied econometrics, which is considered quite a decent background math-wise. You would know that if you had the foggiest of clues.

Honestly I am glad you dont believe me. I dont want a braindead moron on my side. Structural winners are on my site of the story, begrudged losers are on the other. So I am quite fine with the players on my side and even more so with the players who aren't.

You say you trust AI over me, happy to hear. Especially since AI repeatedly says the RNG is not rigged and online poker is fair. And in the past you exclaimed AI one of the most trustful sources of info ("why would the most brilliant people pump billions in it") but since its 100% sure poker isnt rigged you think wikipedia is a little more believable lolol.
You know how wikipedia works right, anyone can edit a page and its known to not be very reliable... even AI says so😉

But even then, show the wikipedia page that says the rng is rigged. There is an actual wikipedia page called "cheating in poker". Literally zero mentions of rng.

yeah i see that even very simple concepts go straight over your head.

I mean i havent even played against the guy but I am pretty sure i already know how he is beating you.

Its pretty obvious from your comments.

If you would think about it for a second it might become clear to you too.

But hey instead just sit there and complain that the mean companies rig the rng against you.

There is more to poker than to bring your money in good.

Waddy, you were the one who brought up the idea of quoting galfond to "prove" rigging. Unfortunately that quote was out of context and I knew the story.

His believe in a fair rng has remained after the failure of his site. Plus he believes strongly that a player who thinks the rng isnt fair is simply not ready to play poker profitably. To which many here are living proof.
Instead of putting effort in spotting mistakes, getting better and creating a winning mindset you riggies rather blame the evil rng for not being able to do well. To think that poker site with billions of revenue are tinkering with the rng to make some microstakes player lose is not only insane, its megalomaniac.

You seem to not understand how rng certification checks are being done. They've been posted here before, maybe read 1 of them. They most certainly do test the outcomes! You can they are not, and I dont know where you get this information from, but its 100% wrong. They test millions and millions of dealings to find anything that isnt random. And they couldnt. Do you honestly believe it when you claim "they just tested how often each card comes out"??? You cant right...
Yes we have counted 100.000 kings and 100.001 queens so thats about right... If you are making **** up and least make it plausible

And the part where I said you cant recognize better players obviously was in response to your claim that players today are not better than before black friday. Nothing to do with you losing 1 hand with KK. That you didn't recognize that isnt covering yourself in glory either though.

I’m not gonna argue with someone who can’t grasp why I quoted Galfond, nor can grasp that anything I quoted I don’t consider as ‘proof’ of anything.

Most structural winners are talented and work very hard.

Do you still believe the rng certification process involves only counting how much each cards comes out or have you read up on how these things actually work?

And you see players becoming better as "raising max oop and betting max every street oop all the time". Nobody else does. When did I say players are better because the bet max oop every street. Not something a solver would advice really. I dont think even someone at run it once would advice that strategy. You just made up that that is the new big strategy and then said it wasnt any good. I know, everyone does. Nobody thinks its a good idea to bet max oop every street. And no structural winner is doing this. Even the very agressive ones have a balanced strat where frequency is incredibly important and they start overbluffing when an opponent is overfolding.

That’s alll I see different to 15yrs ago or so. People who don’t play poker, just press buttons.

I do think some have figured out how to procure cards in their favour. In my games the same players survive all ins by hitting 10-20 sub 20% chance rivers to spilt in hi lo, it never slows over years.

I do think maybe if you play higher levels, you don’t get to the river as often so don’t see the magic decks in full flow.

May i suggest viewing the ultimate PlayStation deck performance in Sky pokers daily freeroll at 6.30pm. Get you popcorn ready and watch the biggest collection of sub 10% rivers you will see in your life! I can correctly predict you will see an avalanche of 1-4 outs hit in advance of tonight’s tournament.

Because it’s a freeroll and plenty of all in pre flops, etc, you will see the deck in all its glory.

I can say that in advance, whilst if we all got together with a real deck, could I do that?

Galfond's site failed because it couldn't attract enough depositors to stay afloat

There are a ton of sites that end up that way. If they were to all rig the RNG in some alternate universe and according to your logic, then they'd still go out of business

It has nothing to do with the RNG. He simply didn't open a business that could survive

Even in some scenario, which seemingly many in the rigged thread believe is happening, where the EV is rigged to keep fish alive longer, you're muting the profit of grinders. They may just go elsewhere for better effective rake/rakeback or a different field of players that will pay them off more often...

Sites can try to max rake by making everyone break even, but then you risk the games drying up and grinders will quit bc it's not worth their time if they aren't making enough profit. If you lose grinders, then you get no games running in any meaningful length of time to actually churn rake from the depositors

Now this would be something that is very easy to proof. If this truly is happening there is evidence up for grabs. Why not turn that "think" into a "know"?

If you can correctly predict an avalanche of 1-4 outers this would be a big enough outlier to say something shady is going on. These would happen 2,5-10% over a decent sample, but if in that sample they would happen very frequently (avalanche numbers) you got yourself a reason for doubting the rng. Especially if its, like you claim, the same players who get these lucky hits over years . Everyone can have a lucky week, maybe month, but hitting the majority of <20% all-ins over years is a very bold statement.

You believe this is happening and claim that you can predict this will be happening in the future. What is stopping you from actually gathering this raw data and having tangible evidence? You could actually uncover something if the data supports your claim.

Fwiw, a fellow riggie named Johnmir told us he could correctly predict cards and made a livestream to prove his stance. Got 100% of hands wrong, quit and deleted the stream immediately. So forgive me for not blindly believing people can predict runouts.

Coming into this thread is like stepping into a time machine. You end up in 2009, where even then, rigturds suggested to watch/play fkn freerolls to see the "rig" in action lmao.

On this forum, actually no, especially those numerous individuals who claimed you needed over 200000 hands to estimate the probabilities. So I'm not sharing my hand histories. If you know anything about statistics, it's the standard deviations from the mean that determines the probability. And even after posting pictures of excerpts from a statistical textbook, that proved what I said, to this day there are clowns actually still arguing I didn't prove it.

Calculating probability based on EV is not as straight forward. You really need to run a Monte Carlo simulation But with an EV win rate of less that 50% it's definitely over 2 standard deviations from the mean (even if you claim the standard deviation was 25% after 1187 all in hands). How likely is the standard deviation 25% over 1187 all in hands. 68.3% of samples fall within 1 standard deviation, 95.4% of samples fall within 2 and 99.7% within 3 standard deviations (straight from the textbook below).

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28/di...

Do you think you can find three individuals out of 1000 with samples sizes of 1187 (or greater) all in hands with an EV win rate of less than 25%. I don't think so. But that's what you would be saying if you claim the standard deviation is 25%. Other than me no one has posted one of less that 50%.

I'm not searching through all my posts to confirm all the numbers I posted so I might be a little off but add to that some suspicious numbers. Ace hitting the flop over 29% of the time in 175 hands with pocket K. Hitting the flop 29.5% of the time over 1300 hands with AK, AQ, AJ (with not one having more than the mathematical probability). Both are over 2 standard deviations from the mean and that's based on statistics, not an estimate. There are too many anomalies and if you have ever calculated availability of redundant systems, you know how multiple occurrences simultaneously reduces the probability.

The majority here knows probability calculation and sample distribution (especially winning players) and literally nobody is arguing that the stuff in that textbook is wrong. You dont need a screenshot of a textbook for that, its the basis of every variance calculator online.

What is wrong is you use of data. You dont use raw data, you cherry pick it.
You focus on filtered data like all lost hands, which you have posted before as evidence of running bad. It sounds laughable and grasping at straws but its what you do all the time.
If you can show raw unedited unfiltered data of you with KK where an ace flops 29% that would be odd. If you find this number in a filtered situation (for instance focusing on all lost hands) it is meaningless.
For a sample distribution to be applied properly the input has to be unskewed which it never is for you.

Its like making a sample distribution for the all the dice ive thrown but focusing only on low numbers by filtering for ones and twos thrown and then claiming I throw a one 50% of the time. How can this happen?? Probability calcs say it shouldnt be happening.. because its not, the input data is skewed and therefore the output is also skewed. If you start off with anomalies input you will always get anomalies output.

Raw data seems to be a crucial element that is incomprehensible for the riggies.

You literally can't even play lmao

Slugant did agree to your challenge. You need to agree on an escrow and terms. Better to do it in public. I would be willing to buy a piece of Slugant if he agrees and we have a reputable escrow/ full proof terms/ its streamed or someone streams it on his behalf.

Is that supposed to be English?

We all know that you don't have $500. Stop lying. Your "bad beats" were extremely boring and unimportant. You need to accept the fact that you suck at Poker.

Nobody wants to waste their time with a perma-tilted loser who can't even do basic poker math. Taking your money would be very depressing, it would be like stealing from a drunk, homeless guy.

Too bad for me the clubwpt gold isnt available from my country. I asked the tiltboy if I could vpn there (even just for 1k hands) but no, they seem to have a very stern KYC policy. Especially for a site thats rigging left and right. Quite the shame tbh although I still have my doubts that someone who tilts off stacks at 10nl will pay $500. But unfortunately I cannot be the one to find out.

He also challenged me to a HU though. I accepted that as well. Maybe he wants to play our HU on a different site (you know, cus clubwpt gold is rigged) that I can actually play. I can play or at least short-term vpn most sites so if he really wants to play me HU there is enough chance.

But what is some clubwpt 10nl reg reads. They dont even need to play extra hands. Just show results and cash in $500. For once I wish i was American:p

Its actually 100% the other way the around.
You think the pro's think the rng is rigged and the microstakes losers think the rng is fair??? Wouldnt make a terrible lot of sense now would it

Like i said in the post above, unfortunately clubwpt gold has very strict standards of who they let in, even with vpn. A bit stricter than with their tampering of the rng apparently 😉

But you also challenged me to a HU and I accept. As challenger its only fair you can choose any site, as long as its available to both of us. Must be sites available to USA and Europe.
And I know you usually play 0,05/0,10 but to up the challenge, and because you must be a lot better than me, lets play at least 1/2.

Unfortunately I cant play on wptgold.

I also havent played a nlh cashgame online in many many years but if you have thoughts on sites that are open to euopean players we might be able to set something up.