2/4 3bet pot IP with AKs 180bb ef
Villain in this hand is a 20s asian player. He had a studied vibe. Twice before this hand he overbet: once as a river bluff on K8868 with a busted fd after x-raising turn; I can't remember the details of the other hand except that he had it when called. Generally he had been active and relatively aggressive as the overbets suggest. I can't recall any showdowns in 3bet pots but he'd 3bet at least a few times in the last two hours or so. He was also talking about hands with a poker buddy on his immediate right (in either Japanese or Korean, my ear for languages being mediocre).
Hero is MAWM and had been relatively quiet at the table/likely viewed as a TAG on the nitty side.
Preflop (Effective stacks are 720):
Hero RFIs 12 on BN with A♥K♥, Villain in BB raises to 50, Hero calls. While I briefly considered a 4bet for value, I called quickly, being heads-up with position.
Flop (102) A♣9♦7♠
Villain checks. I was surprised that Villain checked this board as the 3bettor. Having seen him bluff in a recent hand, I decided to xb without too much thought. If I did bet I would be expecting an x-r some amount of the time, which I'd likely just call not 3bet this deep. By checking, I believed I would be getting more value from TT-KK as well as some air, although he's likely c-betting air some of the time.
Turn (102) Q♥
Villain bets 50 and Hero calls. I called relatively quickly again since raising achieves little, aside from getting more value from say JT or KQ (there being no bdfd reduces his semi-bluffs, plus he'd usually begin betting these on the flop). Obviously Villain still has some nutted AA, AQ, QQ and maybe a slither of 99 and 77.
River (202) 7♣
Villain bets 350. Hero?
23 Replies
Yeah, have to look him up here. Obviously don’t love it but can’t at all fold after flop x, turn x/c.
he is thinking you can fold an Ax for that amt?
low stakes live on a bord like that, A dry i can def see villain not always cbetting flop since he may want you to overstab it, such a dry flop tough to extract.
if he has you owned on turn he would have bet way bigger imo becuase he HAS to put you on an A what else could you have there since you been playign nitty? so if he puts you on a AJ Ax he shoudl eb bettign way bigger on turn with his 2p, set type hands.
If he had you i think his turn should have been bigger bet imo since you are 100% calling pretty much most bets there therefore I dont think hes betting for value on river at least i think value would have went a bit smaller
how did hand play out? what did he show?
I think the turn was either a stab at the pot or value not wanting you to fold. If it was a stab with 76 this line makes sense and you’re beat. This would explain the flop check with bottom pair.
However, there’s so many other hands he could have and most of them you beat. Your passive line encouraged him to try to steal it from you. This guy sounds like he’s looking to make plays, so you have to call. It’s possible the 7 counterfeited his two pair and he thinks an overbet is his only chance. He’s probably used to pushing nits off their hands and feels you’re a good target.
If you raise, he’s only calling with better hands, so that makes no sense. From the description of players, I think a call will be good most of the time.
Gonna be a contrarian here and say fold. He has to expect you to have an Ace, and I think he would expect you to call with the Ace, so if he knows what he's doing, then this doesn't make a lot of sense as a bluff, whereas it makes a lot of sense as a way to play a value hand.
If you called and he showed up with 99 or something, I'd try to avoid this player from now on. Or conversely if you called and it's a bluff, I would want to play pots with him. I'm assuming you did call since I feel like almost everyone would call here (which is again why I think the bluff makes no sense).
Pre: I would 4bet! this hand and call off if V jams at 180bb.
Your open size is too small. Is 12 the standard in your 2/4 game. I would open to 15 or even 20 here. You want to play bigger pots. If someone is calling 12 then they would call 15 as well.
Flop: Bet small, I wanna build up the pot and try to get as much money from Ax
River: As played I am folding here. I don't see too many bluffs here. This is more likely Villain having a nutted hand trying to make up for the lost value.
Definitely 4bet pre, ~120 .
As played, bet flop when checked to, ~ 30-35.
Imo V has more AX than H, which he may check for pot control/whatever, plus he has all the pairs TT-KK and some 9X, which he's not folding yet.
Also, on such a dry flop there are very few high equity bluffs, if any, so a c/r seems unlikely (I'd call the c/r, fwiw).
As played, turn seems standard.
OTR, not that happy but I would still call. The way you played the hand, you rep Qx much more than Ax, so an aggressive V may be incentivize to overbluff. Of course, he has also a lot of boats and maybe some trips (although very few imo), but that's life ...
V's line doesn't make much sense: X on dry board, delay c-bet turn, polar river? Seems strange.
River 7x is good card for H as it reduces the 7x suited combos V can have.
I think V has leveled himself into thinking that H is capped based on the action, so river bluff gets through quite often at these stakes against nit/TAG image.
I'm calling here and I suppose V can have cooler QQ or 99, but he also has many weaker Ax and JTs. I think we get the correct price.
If he is a studied player he will know some GTO concepts and strategies and will range you according to behavior.
In this hand you open btn but do not 4b, which caps your perceived range somewhat, then check flop and call a fairly drawy turn card. So your hand looks somewhat middling, like Ax without a kicker.
This somewhat motivates bluffs and other Ax to overbet for fold equity / fold you off a chop. But a studied player knows to overbet polarized with the effective nuts (AQ, 76s, boats) and put you in a tough spot.
I would prob call with your hand more often than fold but it's not a slam dunk. 4b preflop for sure tho.
The overbet bluff on K8868 shows he’s not very good at hand reading and when to use overbets. He thought a king would fold? I would snap call here we are basically at top of range.
4b pre.
Clear call, you're way under repped and he could make this move with so many available air hands that view you as too weak to call down with a Q, for example. The standard play would've been to bet your ace so I'm sure he would have discounted the chance of you having one when considering to run the bluff. I don't think a 7 bets the turn with the Q coming in, hitting your range hard, especially when checking the A high flop. I guess he could have AQ that wanted to play tricky, which it seems like he likes to do. I don't really think he's going to pick that sizing with just about any of this value though, seeing that you're under repped as you are.
Clear call, you're way under repped and he could make this move with so many available air hands that view you as too weak to call down with a Q, for example. The standard play would've been to bet your ace so I'm sure he would have discounted the chance of you having one when considering to run the bluff. I don't think a 7 bets the turn with the Q coming in, hitting your range hard, especially when checking the A high flop. I guess he could have AQ that wanted to play tricky, which it seems like he likes to do. I don't really think he's going to pick that sizing with just about any of this value though, seeing that you're under repped as you are.
Ok maybe I'm crazy. But I think river is an easy fold.
First of all, most aggro ppl cbet this flop 100%, when they check, it means they either have a monster(aa) or showdown value hand(ax, tt+, 9x)
When they bet turn the range narrows down to (aa/qq, ax, kk)
River overbet literally means aa/qq.
So it seems super easy folding here on river. Your range is kind of faced up marginal hands including all ax and qx.
We literally have a bluff catcher here, I don't think he has much bluffs after checking flop.
I mean he could also play ax this way to get you off chops but not sure if he's this crazy.
I probably like a 4bet preflop.
I think pre-flop is a pure 4bet here, but I don't think calling is horrible.
On the flop, I think you should bet when checked to. You have a hand that should be looking to go 3 streets for value. If Villain check/raises it is an easy call.
I like your play on the turn.
The river here is a clear call. I think folding would be really bad. The only reason to call pre and check back flop is to snap call when you induce this bet from Villain.
An aggressive Villain can easily be bluffing with something like KJo or JTs. These hands do not have to bet the flop. They can check to check/raise (JTs in particular with the nut gutshot) or check to delayed cbet as a bluff if you check back.
Villain can be attempting to bluff you off of a chop with a suited Ace. It makes a ton of sense for Villain to check flop OOP to pot control with something like A5s which cannot go for 3 streets of value.
Villain can also be value-betting the same hand as you. I do not think that AK always cbets flop and, if it checks, it is a natural overbet on this river.
Something to keep in mind when you are evaluating the range of a Villain who has checked from OOP in a 3bet pot: it is trendy, especially amongst younger players, to check range from OOP as the pre-flop aggressor. This is a concept popularized in the Hungry Horse YouTube videos. If you are playing against a younger player who is interested in poker theory, he is very likely to at least be familiar with these videos.
GTO has checks from OOP here as the PFR too, for what it's worth.
Yeah you can pick a variety of slow plays pre here but against a guy who could get it in light you’ve got to 4 bet pre.
I’d also bet the flop because you’d want to do that what a bunch of non aces.
River I call but don’t love it
Your open size is too small. Is 12 the standard in your 2/4 game. I would open to 15 or even 20 here. You want to play bigger pots. If someone is calling 12 then they would call 15 as well.
3x is standard when folded to me on BN. I would generally bet 4x with 1 limper and sometimes 5x with 2 or more (also larger from CO some of the time to discourage BN from calling). In these games, there's a fair bet of 3betting from the blinds v a BN open, particularly from more studied players, which makes me favour a smaller sizing (play more hands as PFR/lose less when folding/4bet bluff for a smaller sizing). I'd rather keep my RFI size as low as I can while aiming to be heads-up or 3way as the PFR. If the blinds are fit or fold types I might go higher just to steal.
I'm a little surprised that 4betting is the consensus. It's certainly a valid/profitable option for value but not sure if it's a default. My first thought is that I want to have an IP 4bet range in these games, particularly as the blinds can be aggressive. My second thought is how comfortable am I stacking-off with AKs for 180bb. My third thought is that I'd rather defend v 3bets IP rather than OOP.
In this respect, I'd be 4betting this AK OOP most of the time against this player type. IP I'm not 4betting that much (KK+, some QQ/AK for value and then maybe some junky Ax and Kx as bluffs). If the blinds are aggro then I'm widening, generally, which would make AK a default, although much depends on how aggro players become with 5bet shoving ranges (at which point I might consider buying-in for 100 rather 200bb).
If Villain expects me to always 4bet AK flatting has advantages, as with the hand in question, for instance, where he might believe I'm capped at AQ, although that he checked A97r could suggest otherwise. On this flop Villain has AA, AJ-AK as value as well as a bunch suited Ax and some Ax trash; I should have less suited Ax, no Ax trash and no AK or AA. Against this type of Villain it's better IMO that he believes I have at best ATs-AQ. As others have suggested he might be blasting river to get me off a chop due to a perception that I have no or very little AK. If I had AJs in this hand for instance, as my best Ax, there would be another layer of difficulty to navigate, especially on the river
either he knows and wants vlue and knows AK AJ isn't folding here or he doesnt know hero is underwrepped here.
would like to know what hapened as I think its close but call is okay
if its against a rec or amateur its 100% fold
call the river and wp.
i dont like 4betting pre with any of my range here unless villain thinks i can do it light.
flop check is good and induced the river action you wanted because your perceived range is capped. your hand looks like some weak Ax hand or QK/QJ so villain is incentivized to bluff. in actuality you are under-repped, so call.
interesting spot.
3x is absolutely fine when opening on the button. our range is very wide and we want calls so we size down. I often 2.5x in this spot tbh
I would also 4 bet - I'd rather flat my AA and KK for deception and 4 bet with AK and 1010-QQ for value and then include some Ace wheel suited as bluffs.
unless he's a lunatic, I don't think he has too many pure bluffs here on this river but he might be trying to bet us off a chop...particularly given he thinks he has more AK than we do.
my rule with overbets from unknowns is that I fold unless I've seen they are capable of doing so as a bluff. Well....you have seen it with this guy.
We lose to AA QQ and AQ, plus any 7s he somehow has, so it's not a great spot, but I think we crying call
Appreciate all the responses, which have surprised me a little. Nearly all say I should call river (15/18), most advocate a 4bet preflop and only few suggest I should bet rather than xb flop.
I was expecting an overbet on the river but was taken aback by the 170% sizing, so didn't snap call, but thought I was only losing to QQ, very occasionally AQ, or a random 7, plus there were some natural bluffs like JTs or QJs perhaps. I was a little hazy on whether Villain could have a worse A and therefore perhaps wasn't that clear about the relevance of the under-repped status of my hand.
Anyway:
Spoiler
I call and Villain shows 8♥7♥
If I 4bet pre I would've bet flop around 100 into 250ish and likely 60-80% on the turn, which I might check sometimes, though. If I bet flop and turn as the 4bettor I'd likely xb river, unless there was a trivial amount behind.
If I bet flop, after just calling the 3bet, I likely bet turn as well.
In either case I doubt Villain is continuing on the turn by calling or x-raising.
More interesting to me is how Villain would have acted on a bunch on other, non-broadway river cards. Does he still bet? If so, for a similar sizing? If he doesn't then my trappy line of defending v 3bet, checking-back flop and calling turn is worth re-considering.
I tend to agree that large overbets (e.g. >120%) tend to be skewed to value in live games at mid-stakes. When a player is caught bluffing with a large overbet it does stand-out a little more, so this was a significant factor in my thinking.
as I said if he put you on AK AQ or even AJ he thinks you are calling a big amount
if roles were reversed you would proly bet that on the river too!!
i did not expect 87
I would say if its like a 5-6x pot bet I would assume more bluff than not bluff 2x pot seems value where 4x+ is bluffy. wp to both
