Hero fold?
Is this a hero fold on the river? I talked myself into calling, because I thought he might be value-raising T6 or 76... but realistically, I think I should have just folded.
Also, I wasn't sure about my river sizing. When he x/b turn, he never has strong flushes. Should I have b33 targeting weak flushes?

19 Replies
not folding
Can't tell if pre spew or just bad. If this isn't a good I'll eat my hud.
I like fold pre but admittedly don't know at what raise size I'd flip to call, if any. It's more about being playable enough to realize, turning equity into expectation. OOP 3ways blocking our best(?) feature in a very high rake environment, no thanks.
As played, I'd play either all one sizing (B100) as a simplification or two sizings (B33 and B100) for sweaty value. In either case, I'd put this combo in the large sizing when choosing to bet it. B33 should be some flushes/straights trying to get thin value and just a smidge of 66/TT. But I also wonder what we're getting value from given that he bet flop but not turn, which should not be much T6/76 but also not much 66 either given flopped flushes and straights present. While he should have T7 to "bluff but not call," we're blocking it. I'm going to guess that "sidecards unblock all reasonable calls" means that we should bet but very interested in other opinions on how to make this choice.
As played, I'm not thrilled with either choice but the pot was kept small when he checked turn and you got a little discount from your river size so just call. There's value in seeing the showdown and remembering the bad feeling and pursuing learning from there.
*fold not good
I doubt you can show a profit even against 2.4bb versus a reasonable opponent or in any harsh rake environment
We’re allowed to fold trash even to small raises. Would you defend 92o in nlhe just because it’s a small raises?
wtf is pre
back to basics, son
My guess is that pre is more than fine. I am not familiar with the rake structure on Ignition. Closest thing I think I got is PLO50 rake on pokerstars. I am guessing the effective rake is higher on Ignition PLO10 and if so it probably becomes a fold aganst a 3.5X open +call. However, against this small sizing I would be extremely surprised if Hero cant squeeze out a healthy EV. (Edit: As a sidenote: Dont open small sizings in rake heavy games against players with a call freq that is elastic to sizing!)
Unless the rake is absurd, dont fold single suited broadway pairs to small opens in the BB. Even the junky ones.
As a side note for the old timers (like my self). Compared to conventional PLO wisdom of yesteryear, Solver reaaaaaaally likes broadway pairs with broadway kickers. Eg QJJxss, KTTxss, etc. At least for me that was a rather large surprise how often solver plays and in particular defends BB with these types of hands
To the question at hand: Dont fold the river. The notion of folding a hand that high in your range even with reads is silly. This is closer to a 3b than a fold. (Not saying I 3b)
You ask what worse will he have? Well he is a random player at small stakes. I see people show up with 77, T6, 76 here quite a lot. Can he have quads or sf? Sure it happens, but not more than 67% of the time, not even close.
Regarding sizing. With my experince with solver, solver likes using B100 and a B small, eg B33 on the river.
With top FH the heuristic is roughly (take this with a grain of salt, dont read it literally):
- No flush blocker: B100. (In solver land, villain calls a lot with flushes but never raises them, so B100 to max EV from those we unblock)
- 1 flush blocker and under FH blockers (ie 7, 6, 2): B100
- 1 flush blocker no under FH blockers: B33. (I believe in solver land to induce value raises from under FH which are now more likely when hero blocks the flush and unblocks under FH)
- 2 flush blocker: B33 (Now it becomes really unlikely villain has a FL, so we B33 to maximize chance of being bluff raised or value raised with worse. Edit: and also to maximize chance of being called with the lighter part of villains range))
Edit: In solver world you should of course also X nut FH some on the river. The TT candicates for X are those without a flush blocker but blocking the straight, eg TT9K no s. Ie the TT combos that minimizes the probablity that villain XB
Hmm I actually looked the action wrong. Anyway, I think in a very high rake environment you can't defend 100% here with a BTN caller.
I would call river btw.
- 1 flush blocker and under FH blockers (ie 7, 6, 2): B100
- 1 flush blocker no under FH blockers: B33. (I believe in solver land to induce value raises from under FH which are now more likely when hero blocks the flush and unblocks under FH)
Betting big blocking under FH, and small unblocking under FH, feels backwards to me.
If we're betting small to induce bluff raises (which I don't think is wise in the first place), shouldn't we do so when we block value (under FH and flushes)?
Betting big blocking under FH, and small unblocking under FH, feels backwards to me.
If we're betting small to induce bluff raises (which I don't think is wise in the first place), shouldn't we do so when we block value (under FH and flushes)?
As I said. Rough heuristic. Dont read it too literally
Also, keep in mind that solver raises your bet waaaaay more than what your average small stakes and micro stakes player does. So that could very well lead to rather big deviations being optimal for you in your games
That said, when solver B33 with nuts or near nuts its definetely not just to induce bluff raises. Its even more so to induce value raises. In solver world, solver responds to a B33 with a much higher raise frequency than it does against a B100 - and because solver is inherently balanced that higher frequency is mostly value raises
Personally I think pf is fine in any environment where rake isn't high esp if the 2 players already in are fishy. That said at 10plo it's gonna be losing and even if it was very slightly +ev I think players playing these stakes should always lean towards being too nitty, reducing variance in close spots, and generally not starting to form bad habits now
If you start with good habits at lower stakes it will allow you to move up faster and also will allow you to break those rules from time to time in certain games as you move up. If you just grind up several stakes with bad habits already forming you will have a much harder time breaking them at the higher stakes and they will be the very thing that will prevent you from moving up further as games get tougher
Oink, I'm pretty sure you've misread villains hand for OPs. We have K774sss.
You don't need to do that. The best way to stop sucking at posting is to keep on posting until you're better at posting. Your analysis seemed correct to me if our hand were QTT2
Broken YouTube LinkAs most have figured out….fold pre