‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ potentially very bad for poker (players) in the US + STAY ON TOPIC!!
This makes Black Friday look like a children’s birthday party.
There’s no chance this passes right? It would
I’m late to the party here. Has anyone put together any studies, charts, or potential estimates as to how this will specifically affect low stakes, mid stakes and high stake Poker players?And how many players are making 100,000 a year in Poker ??? Surely very very little compared to the whole picture. Nonetheless it is unfortunate to have to pay more in taxes…Let
Can you post more specific numbers? Buy ins / Cashes / Annual Expenses
If it's cash / winning and losing sessions / expenses
For sports, winning and losing bets and expenses
I can tell you right now, tournaments won't be beatable, or online poker, or sports betting if this doesn't get fixed - Currently Poly market has this at 40% that it won't get fixed by year end.
you must have missed the posts where people shared tweets from the casino industry applauding the bill
vegas wants this - that's the entire reason it happened
it forces aps to self deport and will save them massively as a big expense for them is not only getting hit by aps but also employing counter measures against them
Yea like like APs are reporting honestly.
There's not reason for them to want this.
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I’m late to the party here. Has anyone put together any studies, charts, or potential estimates as to how this will specifically affect low stakes, mid stakes and high stake Poker players?And how many players are making 100,000 a year in Poker ??? Surely very very little compared to the whole picture. Nonetheless it is unfortunate to have to pay more in taxes…Let’s look at low
Weekend warriors aren't paying taxes on their small profits in cash games. Most casual players aren't even keeping track of their wins and losses and many delude themselves into thinking they're winners.
This hurts tournament pros way more than anyone else as far as poker goes.
Yes, makes poker tournaments for Americans unbeatable most likely over the long run is that correct?
There's currently about a 60% chance on Polymarket that this won't go through.
This probably makes nosebleeds close to unbeatable.
As someone mentioned the lower your ROI the more you get punished.
The real risk is that you have a break even year (which is not uncommon for higher stakes live tournament pros).
For example you have 1,000,000 in profits and 1,000,000 in losses. So you go all year without income and you're likely already broke due to living expenses.
Then at the end of the year you would owe tax on 100,000 due to only being able to deduct $900,000, despite making no money. A scenario like this could really break a person financially.
It's hilarious people are complaining about discussion of "politics" in a thread about a bill in Congress.
I will again point out the "stop being divided by red vs blue when we need to unite together!". When its exclusively red team trying to screw us and mostly blue team trying to help us. The argument to NOT latch on to the team trying to help us is ironically divisive in itself.
Its also ironic someone suggested that I'm under the impression Dems are some great people who are looking out for us. Dem supporters are well aware theyre all crooks. Dems largely hate guys like Gavin Newsom. I've now seen MULTIPLE "Trump stores" selling MAGA gear and yet I've never once seen a Gavin Newsom store. If you want people who are delusional about their politicians caring about them, it's strictly the MAGA cult.
The Dem supporters are the pragmatic ones. We live in a two party system. You might not like it, but we do, and if you want to affect change, you must participate in it by supporting one of the two parties. If we are going to re-invent American politics , it will NOT happen by an extremely niche issue or an extremely niche group like pro gamblers, especially since both parties tend to view pro gamblers with disdain. You simply MUST pick the party that most closely aligns with your interests , accept they're all crooks and scumbags, accept that whatever party you support will conflict with your views on at least some things, and support them anyway.
As far as why the American Gaming Association supports it, its not because they care about advantage players, who have a neglible impact on their bottom line, who are a tiny amount of people, and who are easily defeated by other means. The casinos probably make more money from people _thinking_ they can be advantage players and failing than the money they lose from advantage players. The reason they support this bill is two-fold, 1) casino owners are rich and the massive handouts they were given offset the small amount of damage the tax changes will inflict, since most of the damage will be paid by winning players, not themselves and 2) Trump is an incredibly vindictive person so any criticism of him would only hurt their negotation position, so it's better to suck up to him and maybe recruit some pre-teen girls to bring to his next event as a bargaining chip.
This was a Republican bill, just like the Black Friday bill, and multiple Democrats have introduced followup bills to fix it and separate Republicans have blocked it. Only people who are naive and clueless and misinformed would come to any conclusion other than its in the poker industrys best interest to support Dems and fight Republicans. Suggesting that "we shouldn't be divided between red and blue and unite together to fight it" is naive about how modern politics works and is itself divisive in the sense it'll block the actual actions needed to fix this issue, which is to support the team most likely to fix it, which is now demonstrably blue team.
don't play online poker anymore but it would depend on whether the forms they issue the irs include all wins and losses or just give the net total
sportsbetting and dfs sites do wins and losses so those are effectively kaput if you're a winner at either
I don't think that Sportsbet tracks wins and losses. I was trying to get my records from them a couple of years ago but they said that they only keep records for about 90 days.
I don't know about sites such as WSOP.com, GG or ACR. Does anyone know?
The issue is that just because they don't report it to IRS, doesn't mean that the IRS can't get the info later, and also, not everybody is going to be comfortable cheating on their taxes even if there wasn't any risk of getting into trouble.
I think if we can simplify the sessions to daily wins / losses, this could simplify the data quite a bit and make sense if that's allowed?
I would need to play some online to work on my game so I'd like to be able to do the records the most optimal way if possible.
Note: The end of this thread seems to be getting cleaned up quite a bit. I found that when the new posts are getting overly political, I can just put the person on ignore, which was helpful.
You beat me to it. This will literally have NO effect whatsoever on 99% of the poker world. Recs and casual players could care less about this bill and they certainly do not file taxes. I doubt it will affect most professionals as well, especially those with 'good accountants'. All they have to do is come up with an extra 10% or so in losses to write off and they are back to where they would have been anyway. A few extra cash game losses should take care of that. People will figure it out.
You can argue morality all you want, but this is the reality of what will happen. Yes, some will be affected by this no doubt, but the people acting like this will 'ruin or kill poker' are seriously overreacting. The vast majority of gamblers and poker players are low life degenerate scammers and you think this will affect their 'taxes'? LMAO
You beat me to it. This will literally have NO effect whatsoever on 99% of the poker world. Recs and casual players could care less about this bill and they certainly do not file taxes. I doubt it will affect most professionals as well, especially those with 'good accountants'. All they have to do is come up with an extra 10% or so in losses to write off and they are back to wh
I think it can really hurt the high roller scene. A guy makes up a million in extra losses they're gonna wanna look into that. Some rec makes up 10k in losses it's not worth their time.
It’s a mistake to take republican politicians saying they want to repeal at face value.
They know it’s never getting a vote, so it’s safe for them to say they are against it.
If it ever got to a vote they would vote to keep it.
It’s a mistake to take republican politicians saying they want to repeal at face value.
They know it’s never getting a vote, so it’s safe for them to say they are against it.
If it ever got to a vote they would vote to keep it.
it's a mistake to take anything any politician ever says at face value.
Sure I guess,
But when a republican says they want to lower taxes and cut Medicaid, I believe them.
Sure, but they make up less than 1% of the poker world, which is basically what I was alluding to anyway. Even then, 50% or so of the high rollers are not poker pros, they are rich businessmen who play a lot of cards. If they can afford to play in those events knowing they are -EV, then I doubt they will care about this bill either.
Again, I am sure there there is some concern, but it won't affect 99%+ of the poker world and the small % it does affect will get it worked out one way or another. This is a massive nothing burger imo. Everyone is getting worked up for no reason trying to find a way to argue about politics. Most politicians on both sides are morally bankrupt scumbags that no longer care about the people they represent.
Sure, but they make up less than 1% of the poker world, which is basically what I was alluding to anyway. Even then, 50% or so of the high rollers are not poker pros, they are rich businessmen who play a lot of cards. If they can afford to play in those events knowing they are -EV, then I doubt they will care about this bill either. Again, I am sure there there is some concern,
There's almost no businessmen in the high rollers these days at least not in the US. Sure when they first started them there were a lot . But guys will millions to blow have no interest in playing with a bunch of tanking bots.
Rich businessmen who like to play cards play high stakes blackjack baccarat etc in casinos where they get treated like royalty or they play in private games with other business guys blasting off and a few pros who are fun to play with that run the games.
It's hilarious people are complaining about discussion of "politics" in a thread about a bill in Congress.I will again point out the "stop being divided by red vs blue when we need to unite together!". When its exclusively red team trying to screw us and mostly blue team trying to help us. The argument to NOT latch on to the team trying to help us is ironically divisive in itse
This is a world view from cable news or other boomer/ propaganda sources. You don't understand the position you arguing against, because it is mostly excluded from such sources.
It's not that Dems are crooks, like they give some infrastructure project to a firm that donated to them.
It's that the duopoly play a good cop/bad cop game as they combine to strip mine the country and the world and we are moving into a dystopia in which the average person has little hope of a decent middle class life.
It's that politicians now make millions, sometimes hundreds of millions, to pass policy after policy that they know to be disastrously bad for average the person. And if this is not changed, things will get worse and worse.
Each younger generation is increasingly aware of this because each generation has dimmer prospects. Both right and left leaning young people hate both parties and want radical change.
https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/50th-...
It's not that people who disagree with you are ignorant because they haven't watched enough CNN or read the NYT enough. It's that those sources have conditioned you to think "well the $8 trillion war on terror that killed millions of innocents was just an oopsie rather than demonically evil and we just have to accept a choice between dystopia with gay marriage and dystopia without gay marriage because that is the informed adult way of thinking."
And yes, there are issues where dems are slightly better for Joe blow in the short term, though they will continue making them worse in the long term. That's how the game works. "That other cop said i'm a scumbag. But this cop gave me a coke and said he understands me."
Wow the other cop wants 20k people to die for lack of HC but this cop wants it to be 10k. I'll gladly pay 2x what any other country does to get that! And 10 years from now you'll be paying even more.
The people who disagree with you think we could have a country where the government doesn't kill millions of civilians purely as an excuse to steal trillions of dollars. Some might want that $ spent on HC, while others are more concerned about the debt. But they reject the idea that we just have to vote on the nuances of which type of hell elites create for us.
Though I am a professional, gambling laws are not in the top 500 things I'm concerned about. In fact, that the majority of both parties want people to lose as much money as possible to corporations via 24/7 access to gambling on their phones is a great demonstration of how screwed we are.
This information might already be well known, but I just found it out now and it doesn't seem to mentioned yet in this thread.
Andy Barr (Rep-KY) has submitted a bill that does the same thing as Titus's Fair Bet Act.
I was more referring to the Triton series and the cash games that run around those tourneys, cash games in Macau, etc.. There are not a lot of high rollers playing in the US anymore other than some tourneys. Players have so many pieces of each other, I don't know you can even keep track of all of that for tax purposes anyway. Other than some tourneys, the majority of high rollers in the US are playing in private games. People can say what they want, but I don't see a lot of 'reporting' done for private game sessions. I still don't think this will have much of an effect on the overall poker ecosystem.
We are drifting off course again. Knock it off or some vacation time is coming.
With the odds available on those betting sites, there is an opportunity to hedge a little against the tax increase. I'll run a few scenarios tomorrow, but with the right bet and a decent estimate of next year's taxes, I'm guessing one could cut the added tax bill about in half.
Turns out it's not as bad as I thought. Calculated it today based off my actual numbers. My pre rb/rewards wins were about 50k and losses about 25K. Would have been like a $500 increase for my 2022 (playing 50NL/30NL) ... and if I extrapolate my play at 100NL from that year it would be like another $2k-$3k in taxes (which would have been easy to afford at that point - with net
Sorry, I meant: How do you all know how these new rules will be implemented? Cash games is the format where it's the least clear to me.
Everybody assume they'll seperate winnings and losings by "sessions".
If they do so, they'll have to define what a session is.
How long between 2 hands before they are considered as 2 different sessions? (1 hour? 2 hours?)
Personaly I think that a session is a year long and that I'm on break whenever I'm not playing.
What if they go hand by hand, 90% deduction for losing hands?
If they go by "sessions" for cash as everybody does seem to think why won't they do the same for mtts? (if you play multiple mtts in one session)
Don't get me wrong, this law is not a good thing for poker. But I think some people just assume the worst in order to show how bad a political party is. (Like you did in a previous post)
If only there were IRS guidance and case law on what constitutes a session.
I thought Doug came across fairly well and articulated his points well in his recent interview on News Nation. Somewhat impressed...
Russ Fox discussed this on the Gambling with an Edge podcast recently. Basically, there’s some grey area but also some decent guidance on what clearly is and is not a session.
