AKs in the BB: ##hiffed a draw on the turn.
1/3. Rainy Sunday. To preserve my roll, I hoped to buyin at 1/2 for 200 but stacks on these sad tables were around 120 per player. At the 1/3 table—the cardroom just introduced 1/3—everyone was sitting down with $500+, with $100 chips in pocket. All strangers. After around 20 hands, three players 3bet, all but one also limped and called. In retrospect I would call it the action table for the schmucks who cannot afford 2/5. Rake is 9 over 60.
V (500+) MAWG VPIP 50-15-0 has put $100 in green chips on his stack. He folded two turns facing medium bets and showed down two winners, one from a limped pot. V is paying attention to the game.
Hero (360) sat down with 300 and went on a run playing raise or fold: KK, QQ, 88, and AQs: two opens, one 3bet, and one 4bet with QQ against a grinder. Hero also made a disciplined folds on the flop and turn.
History: Hero in BB won 40 after V called the river with second-pair. Does hero look like a maniac? I'm not sure V pays much attention.
OTTH
UTG limps. V in HJ bets 15. Hero with AhKh raises to 50. V calls. UTG folds.
Flop (110): 8h6h2d
Hero bets 40. V tank calls.
Turn: (190): Jc
Hero?
About the contradiction in my post : I honestly did not know whether V was paying attention. He definitely watched the hands, but my read he was not keeping track of the players. The table had four calling stations and three or four LAGs.
I would check here and check/raise all-in if Villain bets. Villain will be floating the flop with some random junk that might stab. This allows you to capture a bet from Villain's bluffs. XRAI also looks very strong and might get Villain to fold a hand like 99 that stabs the turn. I would do this with value too.
I really don't want to bet here and get jammed on. Probably have to call off if that happens and it's gross. I also don't want to triple this hand off on a blank river, because it is so easy for Villain's to call down when the FD misses, especially when they always "put you on Ace King" anyway. Plus we have bad blockers or whatever.
If the turn checks through, you have enough showdown value to check the river again, assuming you don't improve. Some Villains will just give up worse ace highs and allow you to win with AK unimproved. If you showdown and lose to 55, it's whatever. You realized a ton of equity for cheap, and there is no guarantee a sticky action fish will fold that hand anyway.
I would bet maybe twice as much on the flop. Then maybe shove missed turns. I know the style now is to cbet small, but I would go larger with a semibluff representing an overpair.
Lol, don't see too many rakes here worse than mine, but this might be it.
I'll be honest, this table isn't in my wheelhouse... if I'm also deep. If I'm sitting on my $200 shortstack, it's prolly a dream table. i.e. I like the idea of initially sitting shorter, especially if you're not comfortable deeper in this game / steaks, a route which it looks like you've taken.
Side note: I know people think no one is "paying attention" in LLSNL. But in reality, pretty everyone is (at least to some extent). If you took everyone aside in confidence and asked who the bluffiest person at the table is, or the least bluffiest, or the loosest, or the tightest, or the winningest, etc., pretty much everyone would have the same answer. Think otherwise at your own peril, imo.
If this table is extremely 3betty and we think someone else will often 3bet against this guys open and our loose looking first call, we could consider the ol' flat/4bet play. But at these stacks a 3bet is probably best. I like offering poor 8:1 IO so that I can stackoff comfortably postflop with TP in commitment spots (which we often will be in a 3bet pot at these stacks) so I might go a little larger preflop.
SPR is 3 and we've got the nut flush draw and overs against likely an aggro player. Think I probably lean to a check/shove on the flop. A bet and whiff OOP (like ends up happening) just leaves us in no man's land so often.
GcluelessNLnoobG
I would jam turn as played. I would make flop somewhat larger so you aren't betting 270 into 190, but the overbet has advantages. I don't like x/r flop, because it may get checked back most of the time. Bet flop / shove turn represents a big pair protecting against draw.
I guess hero is in SB or BB?
pre. seems fine
flop I would range check, and x/r this hand. If you are betting flop it should be way smaller, IMNSHO. Betting bigger than this size is the worst option without plans/reads.
Turn is whatever, can check or bet big ... not sure it matters much. Although if I had to guess, I'd lean check being better long term vs. population but your read that he folded to turn bets maybe suggests he floats a lot of flops and/or that he's more likely than most to fold 77/65 or whatever.
Yep cr flop like everyone says. Jam now.
Pre is too small also.
flop I would range check, and x/r this hand. If you are betting flop it should be way smaller, IMNSHO. Betting bigger than this size is the worst option without plans/reads.
I would bet bigger on the flop with the plan to gii if raised and shove the turn unimproved. Not advocating it without a plan.
What's our plan if we play for a checkraise, he checks back the flop and we miss on the turn?
What's our plan if we play for a checkraise, he checks back the flop and we miss on the turn?
Shove almost all turns.
Big bet + call, and x/r + call play very similar on turn.
BUT the significant differences are:
1. When we get here with AdKd or whatever, we really want to check and so we need to also be checking a lot of hands that don't care if 77 or whatever decides to bet.
2. He can't just shrug fold JT to our big flop bet, or shrug call with 99-JJ or call hoping to hit something with 97 or whatever.
3. When all the money goes in on the flop (which is likely better than on even this turn) we're doing better against x/r + V sigh shove than big bet + raise + H sigh shove, IMO.
tl;dr V makes way more errors vs. x/r.
But he often isn't going to bet if we check the flop. He isn't going to stab much with air, and maybe wants to just call down with like 77.
I don't think you answered my question. What do we do if he checks back the flop? Shove the turn is not a good answer. We would be shoving 310 into a 110 pot with a draw that is much weaker after we missed the turn.
I don't think you answered my question. What do we do if he checks back the flop? Shove the turn is not a good answer. We would be shoving 310 into a 110 pot with a draw that is much weaker after we missed the turn.
Sorry, my bad, for some reason I read it as what to do if we x/r flop and get called.
If he checks back it's not terrible, would bet 33-50% pot on all board pairing cards and Q+ and flushes.
Probably also small on 4, 3, and J ... depending on any other info/reads.
We have the best hand enough, when he never bets flop, so it's not like we need to bet big to try to get him to fold 99/87/77/whatever if he checked that back.
Yeh, there's more value/worry for 99 than AA so I'd probably lean x/c with KKh and QQh but I'm probably more likely to get it in on the flop with AA just in case someone is cleverly slow playing KK or something.
UTG limps. V in HJ bets 15. Hero with AhKh raises to 50. V calls. UTG folds.
Flop (110): 8h6h2d
Hero bets 40. V tank calls.
Turn: Jc
Hero? Hero actually checks. V checks quickly.
River: 3d
Hero?
At this SPR I would feel committed with AA. Against more passive calling station types, I would mostly bet the flop to shove the turn. But against more aggro / aware players I could check/shove. Having said that, I'm not too terribly worried about balance against most.
GcluelessunbalancednoobG
UTG limps. V in HJ bets 15. Hero with AhKh raises to 50. V calls. UTG folds.
Flop (110): 8h6h2d
Hero bets 40. V tank calls.
Turn: Jc
Hero? Hero actually checks. V checks quickly.
River: 3d
Hero?
As played most definitely checking the river as a river bet is never getting getting called by worse / folding better due to our turn check (which I'm ok with). The question is whether we should call a bet. There are a bunch of busted draws (although we do block a lot). I'd only consider calling a bet against the most aggro bluffers, and even they would mostly consider betting the turn.
GcluelessNLnoobG
I just don't see that most villain's are going to bet often when the 3-bettor checks on 862. If he had 77 or some pp like that, he was mostly playing for a set, will be happy you checked, and look to show it down cheaply.
If it were 987 or something connected, overpairs and AK would check a lot. On this flop, overpairs will usually bet for value. Any sort of light 3! will probably cbet, representing an overpair and trying to get a fold. So I don't think you should have much of a checking range on this flop. Maybe solvers would 3! and check OOP some. However, at low stakes villain is likely passive and 3!s are usually a strong range.
I would usually cbet largish for value with overpairs on this flop. With air, I would also cbet, but probably not stack off, as with AK and the nut flush draw.
I was expecting you would say that
Unfortunate result. You could have lost more in this hand though I guess. Villain isn't folding turn and probably would stack off vs a checkraise on the flop.
The river bet is a mistake IMO but it isn't a disaster. There is almost no chance Villain folds a better hand that yours. There is a small chance he calls AQo. There is a smaller chance he folds a chop with AKo. The main argument for the block bet is that it prevents you from getting bluffed off your hand. Villain can easily have air and check/calling the river is uncomfortable in this spot.
That said, I think it's a better spot to check and hope to get to a free showdown. Can consider bluff-catching too, as Villain is unlikely to bet a hand worse than TT for value.
Yeah, you could have lost more is you played it stronger. You were 53% to win on the flop. I guess if you call a 3! with 87o, you will stack off when you flop top pair, but he is running into an overpair a lot when you 3! and shove at some point.
