Is this a good shove from WSOP video?
Video is on Pokergo, not available for free. Final table of 2025 $500 Colossus. 3 handed, blinds 5K/10K/10K. Button William 142M, SB Matt Glanz 256M, BB Pyloore 418M.
Glanz open shoves TT from SB. I know there are ICM issues as the middle stack. However, I would limp/shove or raise/gii.
Then with the stacks almost dead even, Williams open shoves AQo from the SB and Glanz calls with 99. Think the hand is also way too strong to overshove. Glanz's call might even be questionable with ICM.
Maybe they had chopped and were just shoving to get it over, or maybe they were really afraid of playing postflop that late.
8 Replies
I'm not sure I understand the stack sizes. Is it BTN William at 14.2 bb's, Matt Glanz at 25.6 bb's and BB Pyloore at 41.8 bb's?
If that is the case then I wouldn't be jamming with TT with over 25 bb's. Especially because the chip leader is in the BB and will only call with hands that are either overpairs or flips (like AK)
I really like the limp/shove option and in a 300 Euro EPT in Prague I was in a similar 3-way final table situation with 99 and a little over 30 bb's in the SB and I limped. The BB shoved (with slightly fewer chips than me) and I insta called. I was going to jam if he 3-bet but for whatever reason he didn't. He had 53o and I held (though the flop was 765 lol). I just hate raising pre-flop and getting called in these spots because we are OOP there is likely going to be at least 1 card over our pair, and its going to be tough.
Curious about what happened but I'm guessing he got called by like KK and went out in 2nd.
The TT jam is probably fine with the ICM considerations and how big the pay jumps are compared to the buyin in a field this huge.
First - $542,540
Second - $361,690
Third - $273,260
You could go for a limp-jam, but you really don't want to be all-in and called here, when the jump from third to second is over 175 buyins.
Ran the first spot through HRC. The ICM solver splits between limping TT 2/3 of the time and raising to 3.5 bb (calling off a BB jam). It doesn't ever open jam the tens.
If the SB limps and BB raises, SB actually 3-bets to a smaller 7.8 bb size 61% (calling off BB jam), calls 1.3% and jams 37%.
If SB limps and BB open jams, SB also calls with the tens.
Comparison of SB options:
Limp: +.72% table equity (+$8,442)
Raise 3.5: + .70% table equity (+$8295)
Open Jam: +.54% table equity (+ $6321)
I don't get the shove but maybe there are factors that we're not aware of. ICM is great in a vacuum but live poker is far from vacuum play.
I don't get the shove but maybe there are factors that we're not aware of. ICM is great in a vacuum but live poker is far from vacuum play.
The jam is likely just a mistake, albeit still a profitable play. I think a human in the big blind is likely to call off tighter than a solver in that spot, which actually makes it worse. You're wasting a lot of value with a monster hand blind vs blind and you're likely not doing amazingly well against BB's calling range.
Not that I'm talking crap. I study these spots quite a bit and I wasn't sure what the best play would be either. These ICM spots are sensitive to so many factors it's hard to play perfectly in real time. That's where a lot of the value in tournaments comes from, just playing better than your competition even if you're still not playing perfectly.
I would say that the check small 3-bet outperforms check jamming by about $150, but I would never do that. You likely induce wider shoves which mathematically is a good thing. Really though do you want to increase variance between coming in 1st and 3rd just for a marginal average gain of $150? I would rather just check jam and be satisfied with taking down 5 BB uncontested most of the time.
Good enough to induce even with ICM in play. Definitely looks like a mistake to me.
