2024 Fantasy Football Thread

Something is off w at least TE in those graphs

Dak, Caleb, Geno

Bucky, Hampton, Swift, Sanders, Mostert

CD, DJM, D Smith, Meyers, Kirk, Legette, Slayton

Loveland, J Ferguson, Ertz

This feels cromulent but I'm not sure.

QB) Hurts, Dak

RB) Taylor, Kaleb, Montgomery, Shipley, B Smith

WR) CD, MHJ, Pickens, Pittman, Kupp, Q Johnston, Bryant, Franklin

TE) Njoku, Ferguson, Arroyo

I think it looks good. I like Hurts with only Shipley or unstacked on some teams. It can work. You filled in the rest of the positions nicely. You could debate an 8th WR or a 6th RB, but it's probably a luxury pick.

It's a prime Kelce graph. He's charting the player's average team score in the 95+ percentile outcome for that season. There are plenty of TEs on teams in the 95+ percentile, but on average, no other TEs made that cutoff except prime Kelce.

The argument comes down to WRs in rounds 3-4 being overvalued relative to ceiling. Just because we value the WRs in rounds 1-2 so highly doesn't mean we should value the WRs that come right after them the same. They either aren't as talented or don't have nearly the same high ceiling situation. I think we've replaced the RB dead zone with the WR dead zone. While players like Wilson and JSN are way more talented, relative to the position, than a dead zone RB. A lot of the reason for picking those players is still projected volume. And projected volume for a WR is a way harder payoff in bad situations, especially in .5 PPR.

A player like Wilson may be picked as the WR 15 and finish as the WR 13. That may seem like a good pick, but it's actually not, because he never had the ceiling to be a top 5 WR. It's the same argument against a player like Terry.

We are better off taking QB or RB in rounds 3-4 and the WRs in rounds 5-6, 7-8, etc. based on the way the players score, on average, in 95+ percentile outcomes.

With that said, I do struggle somewhat with the total ceiling argument. Players like Wilson, JSN and Terry may not be reasons for advancing, but they can certainly help you advance and have the skillset to win weeks 15-17, if you get the right pod luck or build the right combos.

With rooms being so RB hungry right now, I think you definitely need at least 1 RB by R3 now, with the preference being 2 by R5 or R6 at the latest.

Only taking 1 adds some extra risk, but does let you get a nice WR room.

Dak, TLaw

Achane, Mason, Dobbins, Sampson, Blue, Dowdle, Giddens

BTJ, Pickens, DeVonta, Hunter, Ridley, Shakir

Strange, Gesicki, Fannin

That's a fun WR room.

I was in there with you. I'm drunk. I ended up on autopilot for rounds 4-9. I autoed Chuba and Jauan in rounds 4/5 and then came back to the draft room. My internet somehow lagged, because I thought I picked Jamo instead of Chuba and the next thing I knew I was past my round 5 pick. I use Hayden's rankings, so that's how Chuba/Jauan happened. I refreshed without realizing autopilot was on and didn't understand why my starred players were being picked immediately when I was on the clock lol. But I figured it out eventually and made the best of it.

Baker, Brock, Geno

Bucky, Jacbos, Chuba, Davis, JCM

CD, Jauan, Jakobi, Egbuka, Burden, XL, Thornton

Loveland, Otton, Theo

oh dang, I didn't even notice. I was half asleep at the time.

That's still a nice team despite what happened, and funny you got JCM. I was between him and Giddens as my last RB.

I pulled Pickens and DeVonta over to the right side of the board, but I think if I take Breece over DeVonta, my team looks a whole lot better.

Now we get JCM

Jayden, Penix

Achane, Henderson, Pacheco, Charb, Shipley, JCM

London, JSN, Deebo, Godwin, Keon, Palmer, Royals

Goedert, Strange, Otton

Gotcha, I was confused by no Laporta and bowers

I feel like the rd 3-4 thing is a nice thing to know, but a spot where it’s probably valuable to have player takes

Like I wouldn’t blindly avoid rd3-4 WRs in order to draft qb / rb (especially bc that used to be the rb deadzone), but this year I think the wr in rd3 are not that different than the wr in rd4-5 so I’m more willing to take rb/qb there

Agreed though that Terry could just drop 30 in wk17 and if you got a team there you wish you had him (assuming he wasn’t a 0 advance rate guy or something)

Goff, Herbert, Rodgers

Bucky, Brown, Warren, Braelon, Marks

Chase, Jamo, DK, Addison, Jeudy, QJ, Wandale, Noel

Andrews, Goedert

Do I have enough wr firepower here?

Lamar, Fields

Henry, Kyren, Brob, Sanders, Giddens

Puka, Rome, Olave, Shakir, Bateman, Kirk, Tillman, Reynolds

Goedert, Strange, Taylor

I think so. They're all guys who project to be running routes starting in week 1, and you have guys who can put up big weeks at any time. It's not the most exciting room, but it's a solid projectable room.

Ya, Breece is probably a better pick there than taking both of those guys.

JCM is getting a lot of buzz. I think it's about time to start chasing these RB2 situations, especially for the rookies. Giddens has RB2 buzz. Zack Moss just released, so more Tahj. I'll be interested to see how the next few weeks play out.

Yeah, it's all just another reason why I'm a relatively flat exposure drafter. I can make pros and cons cases for a lot of players, and injury is going to be the reason for negative variance more often than not, whether it's that specific player injury, QB injury, oline injury, etc. So I continue to try to build balanced teams with good roster construction and good draft capital distribution.

And actually now that I think about it, one of those TE seasons is probably Kelce and the other is probably Mark Andrews in 2021. But I also don't recall him being a round 2 pick that season. It's possible Hayden missed something too, but I generally trust his data.

Big w17 KC/Den stack, along with the Herbert double.

Mahomes, Herbert

Saquon, Brown, Pacheco, Sampson, Davis

Ladd, Worthy, Rice, Jauan, Tre', XL, Bryant, Franklin

Engram, Arroyo, Gray

Shipley will be my highest owned RB2 (around 30%).

I want to spread out my exposure to the other RB2s, up to 16%

Then I'd like to be overweight (12%-16%) on all of the cheap WR3/WR4 from teams I think could score a lot of points this season.

Palmer
McMillan
Dyami/Parker
Iosivas/Burton
Royals
Atwell/Whittington
Doubs/Wicks
Bryant/Franklin
Noah Brown
TeSlaa
Tolbert/Turpin
NWI/Malik
Nailor/Felton

That's a solid list. I think mine would be trimmed a little bit to the below, but I can see the play for all. I'll probably be 2-8% on all, since I do take a lot of the other positions late too.

Palmer
McMillan
Dyami
Burton
Atwell
Doubs/Wicks
Bryant/Franklin
Noah Brown
TeSlaa
Tolbert
Malik
Nailor

I love it.

I'm big on Bryant/Franklin. I think Engram could have a massive year as well. I love that you didn't spend higher draft capital on Sutton or Mims. The vibes from Bronco's camp on all of these guys is are great. Franklin put on some weight and is doing things this year he couldn't last year. I think we are gonna see a lot of long balls to him. You have to buy into the chemistry he and Bo has. One of these guys should have a big game for you every week so it should be a nice ping/pong effect. The drumbeat of Bryant continues to get louder. What if he is the Michael Thomas in this offense?

I like the Gray pick. He's good for a couple blow up games and has the talent to be real good if Kelce misses time.

I'd feel better with another RB but I just gotta get me Troy Franklin especially in these contests that fill in a day.

Experimenting with some 2QB teams with AR.

Dak, AR

Breece, Cook, Pacheco, White, Ekeler

CD, Reek, Rice, Jeudy, Coleman, Slayton, Tutu, ADM

Warren, Loveland, J. Ferguson

I built this one weird where I took 5 straight RBs from rounds 5-9. I might have even be able to add a 6 RB and stop at 7 WRs if I wanted.

Also did this one, which was just cromulent.

I want to like the 1st team, but I only like Harvey and ETN lol

Would've stopped at 6 RBs, but Dowdle at 205 puts fire in the loins.

Jayden, AR

JT, Hendo, BRob, Tuten, Allgeier, Shipley, Dowdle

BTJ, Terry, Odunze, Downs, Tre, Legette, Tolbert

Warren, Kincaid

Haha definitely not my favorite RB room, but it’s fun to mix it up, especially with ADP fallers and weird builds.

Dowdle at 205 doesn’t make any sense. I saw him falling in mine too.

This is completely illogical, but I get so upset when Jacobs falls here and I have to take him instead of pulling up Breece or Hampton. Like I should be happy I got a value, but I just wanna draft those 2 guys haha

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