PA(PF)HWM - KK as PFR facing flop over bet
$1/2 $300 max Saturday evening.
V $370 BTN MABG. Been short. V has been short most of the game and winning his short AI’s w/ good equity. Haven’t seen him airball anything yet, but not at all scared money. V reads H as a good player, not sure TAG or LAG. H has been active with a wide range.
H $450 BTN.
H dealt KdKs. Makes $10. This has been table standard and my standard for whole range. Some 3b’ing occurring but probably a reasonable amount.
UTG +1, MP BTN call.
Flop ($39) 6c5c6s.
H X, X, X, V $58. H? Hard to believe V has a 6 here with 1.5 PSB. Certainly could, but flush draw, straight draw and 1pr hands seem way more likely. I don’t think the two players behind me have a ton of 6 in their PF calling range. H?
16 Replies
Call and reevaluate. I think a lot of people will slow down when it’s clear you have an overpair.
H flats as the other two options seem terrible. H also checks turn before turn is dealt as I believe I have no turn donks. V checks back turns really quickly. Not sure he even saw it before checking.
Turn ($157) 6c5c6s Kc
X, X
River ($157) 6c5c6s Kc Td
H? V has about $300 behind. Front door flush came in on turn. Seems like H should either 20% PSB or 200% PSB.
H?
H flats as the other two options seem terrible. H also checks turn before turn is dealt as I believe I have no turn donks. V checks back turns really quickly. Not sure he even saw it before checking.
Turn ($157) 6c5c6s Kc
X, X
River ($157) 6c5c6s Kc Td
H? V has about $300 behind. Front door flush came in on turn. Seems like H should either 20% PSB or 200% PSB.
H?
My guess is he has something like 88,99, and so perhaps like 60 and hope he makes a crying call.
Other stuff he may have: a flush will hopefully raise. Straight draws fold. A 6 will probably call.
I wouldn't rely on a player at this level to put in the rest of the money for us so just put it all in yourself. Forget the times some 88 crap calls $60. Get greedy to get out of 1/3.
60 is fine. Overbetting only gets called by hands that are often raising a small bet anyways.
H overbets pot guessing V is inelastic in his calling range. V folds. Later in session saw V overbet multiway raised pot in position and then immediately fold to any aggression. So I guess he was airballing it here. Still don’t love any of the streets.
I think this is the true art in poker, getting the most value with nutlike hands. If you bet small, you wonder if villain calls more, If you bet big, you wonder if less would have gotten called.
It’s so difficult because the same villain might act differently from day to day and you can really never be sure what bet-sizing works today. I have been advised to bet like you’re up against the 2nd best hand which in your case would be tens full. But in this case, there’s simply no other hands strong enough to call.
I truly seek the answer to this dilemma. I know an 84 yr old guy who shoves whenever he has 2pair or better. Most people know that OMC always has it, but I am amazed how often he is called by someone.
I’m partial to pot-sized bets when in doubt, but as others have suggested, I think you bet tiny here & try to get some value. As a very read-based player, I understand going big if you think him inelastic. However, his lack of value hands should probably override this notion.
I think this is the true art in poker, getting the most value with nutlike hands. If you bet small, you wonder if villain calls more, If you bet big, you wonder if less would have gotten called.It’s so difficult because the same villain might act differently from day to day and you can really never be sure what bet-sizing works today. I have been advised to bet like you&#
I thiink this is right. In the abscence of a lot of info about villain or his range, our value bets with very strong hands should default large.
And as for OMCs - there's a reason those 80 year olds on social security can afford to come back to the casino every day, and that is because they do they get called by the loose passives that dominate low stakes. You're never gonna crush it as an OMC, but I suspect most of them at low stakes are at least break even, and often marginally winning.
[QUOTE=FreeCard;59050592
As a very read-based player, I understand going big if you think him inelastic. However, his lack of value hands should probably override this notion.[/QUOTE]
Yeah, that’s the answer. Thanks.
Grunch:
Re - our reads: when in doubt, I tend to default to assuming V's accurately perceive us as playing the way we've been playing, or perhaps as a slightly exaggerated version thereof, particularly when what we're doing is different than what they're doing. So, if he's been tight while you've been active with a wide range, he probably thinks you're a FOS maniac playing too LAG.
PRE - I'm confused. It looks like you said V is on the BTN, but then you say you're on the BTN. Who's on the BTN here? Assuming it's V, since you said you opened and the BTN was one of the callers.
FLOP - now I'm even more confused. Hero's checking from up front, so we're UTG or in the blinds?
Whatever the case - yeah, with KK on 656 two-tone, with three opponents behind us, checking seems pretty standard. Alternatively, if we're going to bet, I think we can bet huge on a paired board, when we have all the over-pairs in our PFR range.
As played, against most of the player pool, I think I'd have a really hard time folding KK to one bet, even a bet this size, in this configuration. It would be an extreme deviation based on the read that V is just super value-heavy here. If we fold and he shows 77-JJ, I'll want to go outside and lay down in traffic.
Multi-way pots tend to be under-bluffed. If he had some sort of draw, I don't think he'd over-bet here. Maybe he's trying to protect a hand like 5x, but even that seems less likely than him just showing up with some 6x hand that's hoping to get max value.
Take this FWIW, but against V's as described here, when they're buying in short and playing conservatively, I tend to over-fold to them, especially when they take huge sizing. They're just so rarely bluffing or betting too-thin.
I might find a fold. Definitely folding turn if we call and he bombs it. Never stabbing on the river if he checks back turn. It wouldn't surprise me at all if this is 66, 65, or 55 and he's just a guy who doesn't know how to milk for value.
H flats as the other two options seem terrible. H also checks turn before turn is dealt as I believe I have no turn donks. V checks back turns really quickly. Not sure he even saw it before checking.
Turn ($157) 6c5c6s Kc
X, X
River ($157) 6c5c6s Kc Td
H? V has about $300 behind. Front door flush came in on turn. Seems like H should either 20% PSB or 200% PSB.
H?
Ugh.
As a general rule, I don't check dark. The exception is generally when I'm OOP as the PFR with a marginal hand, planning to range check, and I believe V will automatically perceive it as weak if I check after seeing what's dealt. Seems like that sort of V sees the dark check as strong and won't bet as much, so it's sort of a way to pot-control from OOP.
The K on the turn tests the "I have no turn donks" statement. I'd be salivating at the prospect of donking this turn, small, praying he loses his mind and raises with trips or better.
When he snap checks back, I don't think he's got a very strong hand. More likely he has 77-JJ and he's happy to take it to showdown. If he has TT, be sure to get the dealer's address so you can send him or her a gift basket after the session.
I think I'd mostly be betting around 1/2 pot to get crying calls from 77-JJ, and praying he raises with TT or a flush, or loses his mind with trips.
I tend to agree you either go small or shove. Small targets the low to middle pairs. Shove targets flushes, the rare 65/55/TT plus sticky-self-levelling instincts that has Villain believing the narrative that Hero has AQ and is repping AK, which is somewhat of stretch, but can happen.
The advantage of a small bet is you still get more value from all the coolers (65/55/TT) which will inevitably raise. Flop action suggests these combos are highly unlikely, though. A small bet might induce a bluff from a rare 98 etc but also seems a stretch.
This hand would've been more interesting if the turn was a non-club brick and checked. Then we should be leading river and probably could go large since we do have more bluffs in our range.
i would argue that 10% would be better then a 20%
2 reasons: first because i think 15$ is the better size to extract value from this 99 88 type hands so lets say we get the call 9-10 times and vs 30$ i would assume that we get called around 3-4/10
But the more relevant reason to go smaller is that in the case that villain has a 6 he will be more likley to raise wich is a huge factor to consider.
