2024 Fantasy Football Thread

good luck, heels

Haha, good luck.

I really don't like being at the 1.01 lol. It's not my favorite team, but I guess it can work. I wasn't sure whether I should go with RB or WR with my last pick.

I also drafted this one which is decent but locked myself out at QB by passing on Brock/Caleb at the 9/10 turn.

Haha, I figured that didn't make you happy and then I saw the TeSlaa pick.

First I get sniped on AR

Now I'm a victim of the Star Method and take AR at 130

Mahomes, AR, Ward

Jeanty, Breece, Harvey, Tracy, Woody

ARSB, Worthy, Olave, Pittman, Tillman, Wan'Dale, Royals

Warren, Goedert, Chig

I don't know how many times I'm going to instinctually click Shipley when I have Saquon.

Also, I got to play the spoiler this time by taking AR at 174, because the guy picking at 177/184 already had Downs/Pittman/Warren.

Kyler, Tua, AR

Saquon, Cook, Tracy, Charb, Ford, Shipley

Reek, Waddle, Jennings, Shakir, Burden, QJ, ADM

McBride, Fannin

I need your expertise again.

In my slow Bulldog I have

QB) Allen

RB) CMC

WR) Tyreek, DJ Moore, D Smith

I'm on the clock. Here are my choices.

Jordan Addison...Probable suspension but as my 4th I should be able to get by. Also, creates a possible stack if I snag JJ later.

Jerry Jeudy....It's possible Jeudy is finally an elite talent. He needs Flacco. I don't have to worry about stacking him because I got Josh.

D'Andre Swift....He'd be a solid number 2 to CMC and a week 17 bring back along with DJ Moore.

Jacoby Meyers and D Montgomery are also available.

I'm leaning Swift because my next pick should be a sweet spot for receivers I like and if not Pollard might be there.

Quick I only have 10 hours.

Thanks!

Threw some of the slappiest showdown slates together for the hof game out of boredom

Spoiler

Show

Nice! I just did one by hand.

Spoiler

Show

Looks good so far

I went 3 qb and mine isn’t looking great yet .

I have 1 3qb but Allen has sucked so it’s prob dead. Should’ve gone Lance, Hooker, DJ

Vidal + Teslaa szn

Last Chihuahua. Ended on a good note.

Kyler, Dak, Tua

Bijan, Bucky, Mondre, Sampson, Braelon, Keaton

Pickens, Waddle, Diggs, Egbuka, Pittman, M Wilson, Iosivas

McBride, Sanders

Keandre Lambert Smith > Tre Harris I’ve seen enough (70% joking)

fml

$50k is all mine if I played Craig Reynolds > Bates

I took out Vidal for hooker . So that sucked .

If you take Tua as your number two do you feel like you have to get a third QB because Tua is so fragile? One hit could end his career with another concussion. He's not the brightest QB and tends to take hits he shouldn't. Tua missing games or worse seems inevitable.

I don't really worry about injury downside outside of trying to build around players I know are currently injured. I think Tua is viable in either 2 or 3 QB builds. If he stays healthy and hits his ceiling, you probably don't need a 3rd QB.

With that said, when deciding on QB, I weigh draft capital investment and stacking and mix it up on 2/3 QB builds. I've done more 3 QB builds than 2 QB builds this season, especially with the late round Colts, Shough, and Dart, but it can really go either way.

I don't try to predict injuries but it does seem that it's inevitable that Tua is gonna go down. He is different than most players in that in theory he probably should just retire given the risk. The good news is he goes way late in drafts so his injury risk is built in.

The injury risk and team environment concerns are definitely built into his cost given what his ceiling can be. But if you're building around him concerned about injury, you should probably just not take him very much.

Overall, there are going to be a lot of injuries, almost all of which will be unpredictable. You can say someone like Tua may be at slightly higher risk due to his concussion history, but it's mostly just random. The same goes for someone like Olave. And when the contests are so top heavy, you beat the injury downside concerns with volume.

There are lot of people drafting maybe only 20 teams that don't want to draft guys like Saquon due to touch history concerns, CMC due to his injury history, Achane because he's too small, Henry because he's old, etc. It's still not the best way to play, but the fun element is part of it for drafters like that.

When I'm building a portfolio with a high volume of teams, the likelihood of a currently healthy guy getting injured is near the bottom of my considerations when it comes to roster construction. For guys like Godwin/Aiyuk or Rice/Addison, I will roster construct a little differently around them since we have more information of games they are likely to either miss or not be fully healthy for.

Drafters - Pulled Sutton over to the right side to get a little unique.

Nix, Stroud, AR

Kyren, Harvey, Tracy, Tuten, Allgeeir, JCM

Nico, ARSB, Sutton, Olave, Reed, Doubs, ADM, Franklin

Njoku, Jonnu, Higbee

I feel like uniqueness is mostly moot in total points, since you'll either have the couple of guys you need or you won't. Especially for someone with a likely capped ceiling like Sutton. But I like the squad.

Hayden added some context in the article below.

A) WRs in Rounds 3-4 have a 2.8% upside hit rate, and this is the part of the draft where WR prices have gone up the most in recent seasons. There has been research on RPOs going to true alphas, not this next tier of real-life WRs. The fantasy community may also be forcing WRs up this high for perceived roster construction advantages, which is very much up for debate now that the RB dead zone window no longer exists in this range.

B) TEs are rarely on these top 5th percentile players. It's happened just twice; 2023 Travis Kelce and 2021 Travis Kelce, although 2021 Rob Gronkowski and 2021 Mark Andrews just missed the threshold. Here are there respective yards per game and total TDs as a baseline of what is necessary to pull this off: 79YPG & 12TD, 94 & 11, 62 & 6 (this was driven by MVP Tom Brady correlation), and 80 & 9.

C) 8 out of 10 upside hit QBs were top-120 picks. After looking at these hits, it's the dual-threat QBs in the Round 3-4 range or the pocket passers in the 73-120 range only. This makes sense. The dual-threats can provide such an advantage in half PPR by themselves, while a passer who gets their with passing TDs drags up multiple pass catchers, giving the entire roster more upside.

D) There are more last-round WR upside hits than given credit for. Let's look at picks after 180th overall and change the upside hit definition to just top 16% teams (like you'll see below). There were 18 WR hits, 12 TE hits, 10 RB hits, and 5 QB hits.