Turn spot with 3rd pair+gutter

Tough to put Villain on a range here. I'm not really sure I would take any monsters out of their range, JJ+ seems reasonable to call pre and then check-call this rather dangerous board that should be quite good for your range, especially with a dry side pot. TT seems like a decent slowplay to me as well.

I think I check here. If villain has overcards and blasts off on the river they can really not go too big since they're mostly only playing for the side pot, and your range should have some traps in it as well.

If betting I'd also worry slightly about being check-raised and losing the equity you still have against overpairs / getting raised off your hand by combo draws.

Yeah, I think checking is the smart play here. You aren't folding out any sufficiently big draws, and indeed might be setting yourself up to be check-raised by big draws with no showdown value. And betting will just inflate the pot in a slightly ahead / way behind situation.

And Barracuda makes a good point that you'd have some checks with traps on the turn - certainly TT, possibly 99.

Not sure how I feel about the flop bet. I get it from the perspective of equity denial, but the problem is how few overcard hands might even fold to this bet - KQ / KJ have overs and a gutshot, so you're really just targeting AK-AJ and they might not fold for this size either (especially if they have a club in hand).

I probably check back the turn in order to induce a bluff on the river with some kind of draw. If Villain has a 9 he likely checks most rivers and he could with a T.

Villain can have some overpairs because they might fear raising and then having somebody go all in to win the side pot... But I think it is unlikely because sometimes they would raise to get it HU since nobody had called before them. Like if they had JJ would they really want somebody to call with ATs where there was no side pot and they could fold if they missed the flop? Also why wouldn't they lead out with JJ+ on this flop?

I think it is possible that Villain has a smallish PP either that we are ahead of so I would bet the river if Villain checks.

I don't know, I think villain would 3b pre with JJ+ a decent % of the time. And if he chooses to flat, I would expect him to lead out on that flop given how much money is in the pot already and the dynamic nature of the flop. I've capped my range with my call pre, so he can rightly assume I don't have QQ+ and will have a lot of hands that connect with that flop in some way.

But I agree with your points about the downsides of betting turn.

I wasn't sure about the flop bet either, but my hand is so vulnerable that it feels like I'm going to end up folding to pressure by the river a large % of the time if I don't. I guess a legit question is whether this is an appropriate spot for a large bet if I am going to bet. With the dead money in the pot there is added value to folding out his overcards.

Pre its a fold or a shove but that’s another story. 88 plays better against a short stack rather than another big stack.

Yeah my take might be a little nitty but tournaments are about survival.

As played jamming the turn would be the move I’d make. Villain’s range is narrow with flush draws and top pair weak kicker - I think you’d see a lot of K10, Q10 or J10 type hands here. Some other hands in his range would be A9/K9/Q9 clubs also I guess.

If the villain finds the courage to call your shove and has you beat so be it. Fortune favors the bold!

Preflop is a fold. Shoving 56xBB to isolate with 4 players to act is horrible. You are usually going to have no idea where you are at postflop with this hand.

I found this spot super interesting so I ran a custom sim for it (cEV, not ICM, I don't know how far in the tournament you were so adjust accordingly). And the results surprised me quite a bit, especially preflop calling ranges:

How did you end up playing it?

That is super interesting, thanks.
I'm not sure I understand the point about MP's calling range. He shouldn't 3b with anything in case there's a call behind?

Anyway, sounds like my play was in line with your custom solve...

I checked behind on turn.
River: 4d.
Check, check. Villain shows AsJd and I win the pot.

Interesting. I suspect most human opponents still raise with their strongest hands preflop in MP's spot. That makes a big difference for how the sim plays out, whether we're playing against a capped range or uncapped range.

If we assume their range is capped then 88 might become a pre flop call.

Preflop in our spot we're likely also raising our strongest hands. So in reality we might not have such a huge range advantage as assumed in your modified sim where MP had a capped range. I'm assuming in reality both players are likely capped preflop.

Oh ok. Yeah that makes sense. I would assume as the second caller in that scenario we would have the range advantage, but it surprises me that it's to such an extent that we can range bet.

As the sim indicated, the call with 88 is bad. Donk thinking to play because you have a decent hand. Problems are you have to fold to a cold 3!, you are not ahead of the caller's range, and it will be difficult to play postflop.

I don't agree with the sim. This is basically a 5 1/2 bb raise from UTG where they will have 4 1/2 bb's for the next hand. So it will be any Ax/KXs/Q8s+/J8s+/22+/2 broadways/SC's/etc.

I especially like calling because the MP didn't 3-bet but just called so it reduces 99+ hands. If MP doesn't hit any of the overcards they are likely to not bet the flop (like what happened here).

I also think it is less difficult to play postflop because we may be in position if nobody calls behind (which is what happened here). Because there is no side pot there are fewer bluffing situations.

I think both points are valid. To deuceblocker: the sim doesn't call 88, but doesn't consider it a costly mistake. If Mr Rick is right that UTG may open slightly wider than the sim (although not quite as wide as that, I think) and that 99+ may be reduced (although I'd still give villain half of that), then those are points in favor of calling 88. But I also think Deuceblocker is right that if we are both capped here and UTG is even wider, people behind should start three-betting a bunch, and some stacks behind us are perfect for reshoving, and that's bad for calling 88. I'd weigh in further that ICM should lean us to fold slightly more often depending on where we are in the tournament. On the whole, I don't think preflop is a big mistake either way, and really the postflop is more interesting.