How to play aces post flop on dry boards?
I feel like I can't properly judge how strong pocket aces are post flop on a dry board (when you don't hit a set). Specifically should you triple barrel them for value and should you call with them when facing aggression. This basically boils down to how often will my opponents flop two pair+ as opposed to TPTK/overpair. To make this question more concrete I post two hands I played that sparked this question.
GG Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: 78.5 BB (VPIP: 29.17, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
BB: 227.5 BB (VPIP: 32.35, PFR: 22.06, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 71)
UTG: 119.5 BB (VPIP: 22.73, PFR: 22.73, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
MP: 108.5 BB (VPIP: 33.77, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 82)
Hero (CO): 106 BB
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♥ A♦
UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 6 BB
Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 9♠ 3♥ 5♣
UTG bets 15 BB, Hero calls 15 BB
Turn: (49.5 BB, 2 players) 7♣
UTG bets 49.5 BB, Hero calls 49.5 BB
River: (148.5 BB, 2 players) 8♦
UTG bets 46 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 32.5 BB and is all-in
UTG shows 3♠ 3♣ (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 19%, Flop 89%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows A♥ A♦ (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 81%, Flop 11%, Turn 5%)
UTG wins 202.5 BB
Here I call all three streets with pocket aces against villain who flopped bottom set. Whether I should fold or not boils down to how often villain bets like that with TPTK/overpair and I just don't know the answer to that.
GG Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (MP): 101.5 BB
CO: 111 BB (VPIP: 28.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
BTN: 339.5 BB (VPIP: 42.31, PFR: 30.77, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 27)
SB: 24.5 BB (VPIP: 3.85, PFR: 3.85, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
BB: 103 BB (VPIP: 35.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9♠ 9♣
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 9♥ 7♠ A♦
BB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, BB raises to 21.5 BB, Hero calls 16.5 BB
Turn: (49.5 BB, 2 players) 8♦
BB bets 78.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 77 BB and is all-in
River: (203.5 BB, 2 players) A♣
BB shows A♠ K♥ (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 45%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows 9♠ 9♣ (Full House, Nines full of Aces)
(Pre 55%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 192.5 BB
This is not quite the same as what I described (villain has AK and not aces) but the situation is similar in the sense that they win unless I have two pair+. Are they correct to call my raises or should they fold? What should they do on the river in this situation? What if the river card was a blank instead of an ace which of course was quite unfortunate for them.
edit: i guess in the second example the board isn't exactly dry. Still how would you play this?
3 Replies
Try to take every hand as a unique scenario rather than having a predefined way of playing a hand, ie barreling aa on dry board.
H1 I don't think it's bad and you will be good there a lot but you have to think would they play JJ/TT this way.. QQ+KK usually 4bet but not improbable to flat by a weak player (these factors I think make it close).
H2 do you mean are you correct to call their raises? I would bet 1/3 on flop, you will get too many folds vs BB range here I believe with your sizing. Rest of hand seems good.
H1 i would probably start to think on the turn. I'm not saying fold but I think pot size is under bluffed by fish and someone donk barreling large into a 3bettor is definitely cause for re evaluating how strong our hand actually is
H1 i would probably start to think on the turn. I'm not saying fold but I think pot size is under bluffed by fish and someone donk barreling large into a 3bettor is definitely cause for re evaluating how strong our hand actually is
I think folding turn is probably going to be fine we are so often beat we need 33% and I just don't think we have it in this line, obviously can't fold river after we call turn