bluff catching with QQ
BTN: 113.32 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
Hero (BB): 100 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qh Qs
fold, CO calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 17 BB, fold, BTN calls 12 BB
Flop : (35.5 BB, 2 players) Td 6h Ad
Hero checks, BTN checks
Turn : (35.5 BB, 2 players) 2h
Hero bets 15.7 BB, BTN calls 15.7 BB
River : (66.9 BB, 2 players) Ts
Hero checks, BTN bets 33.44 BB, Hero calls 33.44 BB
BTN shows Ah Qd (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 30%, Flop 95%, Turn 98%)
Hero shows Qh Qs (Two Pair, Queens and Tens)
(Pre 70%, Flop 5%, Turn 2%)
BTN wins 127.1 BB
My thoughts: I wished I 3-bet larger to like 20BB. Turn bet is maybe too large, check or small bet are probably better. River I had no clue, thought about betting small and folding to a raise, but been getting raised there a lot lately. Instead went for the checking line and was quite clueless if that's a call. I need 25% equity, his sizing represents weak value like TPWK, JJ, maybe smaller pairs like 99, 88. I would guess his sizing is overbluffed (?), but he folded most air on the turn and arrived here mostly with flush draws that miss. If many missed flushes will bluff it's a +EV call.
What do you think?
5 Replies
cbet flop small.
Turn bet is very big.
River easy fold.
Thanks! Could you perhaps explain why the river is easy fold?
Ok, river is easy fold because he has very very few bluffs.
His diamond draws will bet flop.
His heart draws might not even call your huge turn bet.
You block all the QJs/QKs
His range becomes Ax/Tx only.
Then question becomes what hands bet so big on river. All Tx, A probably with a big kicker AJ/AQ/AK. Some slowplayed hands like AT/66.
When you 3bet preflop then flop Axx goes check/check, you bet turn, then check river, your hand becomes face up some weak Ax, some middle JJ-KK.
All these hands are trying to bluff catch river. Your opponent will fire all value hands here only. Bluffs will usually not fire unless they're super crazy.
Thanks for the explanation, very helpful!
All 3 are fine to me except for I’d prefer a baby bet / fold on the river after the turn size.
