Jerome Powell: How would you rate? Fed reserve thread
I think hes done a standup job thus far, i like how he didn't cave into trump really lowering the rates yet, I think it may need it in 2026 if jobs posting keeps being slower than usual I do think the employment numbers are a little worse than They have been this year
i understand those saying it shodleblowerd due to, car rates, used car pricing and poke the housing market a little to make it a bit mannageable if that can do so. i guess holding rates for a long time woudl cause stagflation liek japan but no reason of that yet
I still think Powell has done a really solid job. what do you guys say?
Powell is one of the only competent people left in the administration. He is probably the most competent person left. I think hes right to hold off on cutting rates until more economic data can flow in. Especially tariff data that the current administration has tried to manipulate through delays, changes, and complexity
Powell is one of the only competent people left in the administration. He is probably the most competent person left. I think hes right to hold off on cutting rates until more economic data can flow in. Especially tariff data that the current administration has tried to manipulate through delays, changes, and complexity
one thing you can say is that, perhaso if we are 100% known rates are going to be cut.
isn't it smart to havea soft ladnign and at least start the cuts now, so lets say we cutit by .25 sothat by Q1 instead of cut being drastic like 1% we can cut it by .5 instead
i think just 1 25 point rate for september is being predicted
Here is my analysis of the past 6 Fed chairs...
-Powell is the first to be fully aware that the system is unsustainable. He knows his job is to kick the can down the road, and is very effective at it.
-Yellen was also effective at kicking the can down the road (issuing more at the short end of the yield curve was a big shift under her), but seemed to believe that the system was sustainable with genius enough Fed officials to constantly tweak it.
-Bernanke set the stage for Yellen, changing the Fed's job from maintaining low unemployment/inflation to "that, and whatever keeps the system afloat."
-Greenspan, with his Greatest Generation optimism, was the first Fed chair to believe that monetary policy could cancel recessions without unintended consequences. His libertarian roots likely would have prevented him from taking the extreme measures we saw under Bernanke. Whether this would have been better or worse is a matter for debate. In all likelihood, if we had gone through Great Depression 2.0 in 2008, we would be on a more stable trajectory right now.
-Volcker saw all this coming and successfully managed to reset the fiat system before it spiraled out of control. By far the best Fed chair ever.
-Burns, a political sellout, was a precursor to our last 4 Fed chairs.
Here is my analysis of the past 6 Fed chairs... -Powell is the first to be fully aware that the system is unsustainable. He knows his job is to kick the can down the road, and is very effective at it.-Yellen was also effective at kicking the can down the road (issuing more at the short end of the yield curve was a big shift under her), but seemed to believe that the system was
How ?
The great dépression seem to have last from 1929-1941 .
2008 bring us to 2020 then boom covid ….
Without saying :
AI Overview
The Great Depression of the 1930s did not directly cause World War II, but it significantly contributed to the conditions that led to the war. The economic devastation of the Depression fostered political instability, paving the way for the rise of extremist ideologies and aggressive regimes in several countries. These regimes, in turn, fueled the escalating tensions that ultimately resulted in the outbreak of WWII.
I guess its a human condition to always forget past hardship and repeating the same mistake from previous generations because -> we are much better, wont be the same .
Simply being credible and reasonable appreciated in 2025. Fed policies helped cause inflation because they were greedy and appeasing with low interest rates, so that is a knock.
How ?
The great dépression seem to have last from 1929-1941 .
2008 bring us to 2020 then boom covid ….
Without saying :
I guess its a human condition to always forget past hardship and repeating the same mistake from previous generations because -> we are much better, wont be the same .
Money supply would be lower, debt levels would be far lower, capital would have been allocated to saner actors who aren't constantly banking on government assistance, COVID printing wouldn't have hurt the bond market as much, young people would be able to afford houses and have a positive view of the future.
Money supply would be lower, debt levels would be far lower, capital would have been allocated to saner actors who aren't constantly banking on government assistance, COVID printing wouldn't have hurt the bond market as much, young people would be able to afford houses and have a positive view of the future.
all unproven facts this would have happened.
market are unpredictable months to months, even week to week, but u can safely assume all those facts on a 15 years tangent....
some QE program post 2009 were terribly bad but some was necessary and to assume , having a depression 1930s style in 2009 , we would be at the same place we are today except with just a lower money supply is absurd.
unintended consequences is a real thing and great depression are full of them.
fwiw yeah things could of been better post 2009 the way the fed and the governments deal with it but its certain the end results isnt as bad today as if we would have a great depression as u imply.
again i dont think you appreciate fully how bad things were in the past.
all unproven facts this would have happened.market are unpredictable months to months, even week to week, but u can safely assume all those facts on a 15 years tangent....some QE program post 2009 were terribly bad but some was necessary and to assume , having a depression 1930s style in 2009 , we would be at the same place we are today except with just a lower money supply i
Markets are far more predictable in the long term than the short term, especially when you know the modus operandi is to print and bail. Look at all the people over the past 17 years who saw the necessity of expanding the money supply to keep the system afloat, sold bonds (even in the face of massive Fed purchases to prop up the market), put their money in hard assets, and never sold along the way. They didn't just get lucky... they were right for the right reasons.
A depression is a deflationary collapse, in order words, a de-leveraging of the system. Under that scenario, of course the result would be lower debt levels, lower money supply, and lower wealth gap between generations. If there is less money entering the system to prop up assets, of course assets are going to be a lot cheaper. Basic logic will tell you that.
Whether the alternative would be better or worse is a matter for debate, but given that the leading nation of the Western world is on an inexorable decline to banana republic territory (multi-trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see, tens of trillions in unfunded liabilities coming down the pipeline before 2050), I think there's a very good argument that letting the system deleverage in 08 would have led to a more stable trajectory now.
Markets are far more predictable in the long term than the short term, especially when you know the modus operandi is to print and bail. Look at all the people over the past 17 years who saw the necessity of expanding the money supply to keep the system afloat, sold bonds (even in the face of massive Fed purchases to prop up the market), put their money in hard assets, and neve
Seems easy to say now because '08 is way in the rearview mirror and the resulting long-term pain would largely be over. But I'm not sure society could handle that type of stagnation both culturally and politically speaking for an extended period of time.
I think Powell has mosly done a good job, was a little late fighting inflation in '22 because he accepted the WH narrative on "transitory" but hard to see anyone else doing a better balancing act than that.
As far as the long-term fiscal/monetary problems, I think the bet is just that innovation in various fields (AI, robotics, energy, etc) will make them obsolete.
He is a joke.
We haven't had a real Fed chairman since Greenspan. Since Greenspan they have all been market fundamentalist stooges.
Greenspan would shock the market with a surprise interest rate hike to try to cool off "irrational exuberance".
Since Greenspan, we have only had market fundamentalist who see their job as minimizing the sadness of **** economicus.
Of course, derangement syndrome morons will prove a broken clock is right by being against the next Trump market fundamentalist stooge.
Probably a hyper stooge next who wants to lower interest rates "to create jobs" as we hit the gas towards the fiscal cliff.
Imagine the Fed chairman going against the market expectations exactly because the market doesn't expect it.
That was the 90s. I don't think it is just random correlation that the 90s were ****ing awesome.
These are enormous decisions by the node with the highest page rank/eigenvector centrality in the economic network.
if we accept that Powell is playing a game not unlike
, then I think he has done a good job.
The one thing that will scare me for the "new guy" if its rumored to be him is that he seems, from what i read, way way too close to the president and obv never want a fed who is at a presidents call
I am glad that 3rd stimuluss never went through during covid era which te rumored guy was pushing for harshly..
I don't think fabricated, but definitely retaliatory nonsense. They were clearly on a witch hunt and looking to find whatever they could to nail her. If the allegations are true, she dumb
Fabricated? Seems highly unlikely
Retalitory? Probably
Nonsense? It is a felony
Bottom line? No denial and it is a felony by someone in a position of high trust. If she didn't do it she should say so but hasn't.
