5/10/25 2500 cap Pocket 9s versus LAG
CO is young aggressive white guy first time playing with him. He opened the button with 95o did a small bet on flop, ove
I disagree with this. Villain opening 95 offsuit on the BTN in a 3 blind game is very obviously much looser opening strategy than he should be using.
Therefore, the most straightforward counter strategy to exploit him is to 3bet a significantly wider range than our typical SB vs CO strategy in a 3 blind format.
I agree in theory but bloating the pot OOP against a tough opponent will lead to making major mistakes postflop. This is a very hard hand to play OOP very deep against a tough opponent - at 100 bb I'd 3b it but at 200 you're going to get put in some very tough spots.
I think you're confusing the 95o hand with the set of 3s hand. They're separate HHs.Well, you need 40% equity to call, so you can't be crying *too* hard.I stand by my line of questions to get more information on whether or not villain is a total fish, but if we're jumping the gun I might as well throw my speculation out:Described player doesn't sound like someone with loads of
“ CO is young aggressive white guy first time playing with him. He opened the button with 95o did a small bet on flop, overbet on turn, block bet on 4 to flush river with 5 high flush. He seems to like small flop bet, and over bet turn and river. I flopped a set of 3s, called his small flop bet, called his turn overbet and minraised his river overbet all in which he folded.”
Well, easy to confuse that being 1-2 hands. How do you block bet when itÂ’s checked to you on the river?
Also from reviewing the HIQ, the three flush came runner runner. ItÂ’s a closer decision for me now but V could still be betting 88-66 here thinking itÂ’s good. And heÂ’s still a young guy who thinks heÂ’s way better and trickier than he is.
Probably need more kleenex when he shows QQ JJ, or T3s but IÂ’m still tossing a chip in based strictly on what was posted.
Spoiler
And that it WAS posted
i don't hate flop xr vs a range thats probably 40+% of hands and cbetting range tbh. most comparable sim is probably btn open vs sb call 200bb deep and you'll see that sb actually leads small amount w basically every hand in range bc equity favorite. am not buying ai sim to look at this one but id guess you have like 4% of hands and he has much more than normal co so he can't really bet range (though it sounds like he is). the difficult part about leading him down that node is you are very very likely to make large mistakes later in the hand if you don't have experience / arent good at poker (despite the flop being marginally higher ev in theory, possibly much higher ev node locked)
like on this runout id guess we end up x/r, c/c, c/indifference. i do believe this player will float the flop too much and stab turn too much, i dont have much of an opinion otr in that hypothetical. probably most people give up on the T in general in most aggressive lines
i think in general if he's good / overly loose either on early streets or early on in the session (like how bad can opening 95o be otb if people don't know you're doing it?), the idea of blindly c/c regardless of board while optimistically handreading (people putting him on 66 or 22/33 here lol) is a recipe to get completely annihilated
alternatively we get the plot twist that he is in fact whale and op called down and defeated like 84ss (some placeholder for 100% of range)
i don't hate flop xr vs a range thats probably 40+% of hands and cbetting range tbh. most comparable sim is probably btn open vs sb call 200bb deep and you'll see that sb actually leads small amount w basically every hand in range bc equity favorite. am not buying ai sim to look at this one but id guess you have like 4% of hands and he has much more than normal co so he can't r
submersible,
you seem to be one of the few posters around here who actually plays poker. At least one of the few posters who actually plays poker well.
With that said, I just think that we are making this hand hard to play by flatting pre and passing up on a clear value 3bet.
Poker is mostly about value and bluffing is of secondary importance. If we miss clear value bets/raises, then poker is going to get really hard really fast. My preferred strategy is t mmo get more value out of my hands than everyone else on the table. Pocket 99 is plenty strong enough to 3bet for value here.
I'll give you credit on your postflop analysis. I would be curious for you to weigh in more on the preflop decision though.
Based on infinitesimal incomplete information it seems at least as likely V’s a whale as he is “good”. It would be odd for him to run the same bluff twice against the same guy in short succession but we’ve all seen far crazier things than V turning over 88 22 AcKc or 9c5c here…or the as yet unmentioned H reraises all in and V snap folds JJ face up scenario.
I do think it’s close, H probably would probably just have to go with feel at that moment at the table. Assuming V doesn’t have a T—and that H did not show his set of 3s earlier—what is thinking H’s range is when a T/third club hits the river?
submersible,you seem to be one of the few posters around here who actually plays poker. At least one of the few posters who actually plays poker well.With that said, I just think that we are making this hand hard to play by flatting pre and passing up on a clear value 3bet.Poker is mostly about value and bluffing is of secondary importance. If we miss clear value bets/raises, t
im not sure we need or want a flatting range from the sb in general with 2 people left to act behind facing a 2.5x or so open, but if you're going to have a flatting range 99 would make it in with some frequency. id be worried you're incentivizing people behind you to vpip, particularly via squeeze, vs an opener who seems too loose. the actual ev of flat vs 3b can't be much different in theory though.
the difficult part about leading him down that node is you are very very likely to make large mistakes later in the hand if you don't have experience / arent good at poker (despite the flop being marginally higher ev in theory, possibly much higher ev node locked)
I don't think you can make this case when villain poured 15 times the turn pot in the flop x/c node and we YOLOed the first B275 with limited framework for understanding what's going on. If you're saying the river is indifferent in the x/r branch, and I'm assuming he's not so likely to overbet when we uncap our range with a flop x/r, then our mistake potential for R33 is capped at something like half of his turn bet size in the branch we actually went down. (Of course, the raise size itself is the first potential blunder.)
But more importantly, most of our EV from both 3bing pre and x/ring the flop come from taking the pot down right there. So I think the argument that one line burdens you to play too well actually runs the other way.
most comparable sim is probably btn open vs sb call 200bb deep and you'll see that sb actually leads small amount w basically every hand in range bc equity favorite.
Yeah, I mean, I donk range here, but I do a bunch of heterodox shit that I don't bother arguing about on this sub anymore. And the reasons aren't limited to theoretical ones.
i think in general if he's good / overly loose either on early streets or early on in the session (like how bad can opening 95o be otb if people don't know you're doing it?), the idea of blindly c/c regardless of board while optimistically handreading (people putting him on 66 or 22/33 here lol) is a recipe to get completely annihilatedalternatively we get the plot twist that h
Still waiting on whether any of villain's other overbets were actually uberbets like turn is. Crazy how when a bet is B50-B100, we're like eskimos with all their words for snow, but anything from B101 to B9999 is just an "overbet" and anything from B49 to 1bb is just an "underbet ".
But I agree with all this in the meantime.
I don't think you can make this case when villain poured 15 times the turn pot in the flop x/c node and we YOLOed the first B275 with limited framework for understanding what's going on. If you're saying the river is indifferent in the x/r branch, and I'm assuming he's not so likely to overbet when we uncap our range with a flop x/r, then our mistake potential for R33 is capped
my point is complexity generally favors the stronger player
Interesting thread, and example of how a villain can destroy attempts at "pot control" by massively over betting. I would fold the turn but that's mostly because our past contributions to the pot are small and future contributions are very large. Need a better read on villain (those hand histories are a faint sketch). And good point about over vs Uber bets. Definitely uncharted waters for 100bb stackers like myself, facing scary overbets only once in a blue moon (and usually folding)
Let’s not forget the effective stack is 5K so Hero still could reraise another 2K if he doesn’t think V has a ten! 😃
now that i think about it, from a meta standpoint im guessing the most +EV play is to fold the flop because vs this guy the best thing to do is to flop sets and let him blast off (and we didnt hit a set), and because theres always easier money to be made than bluff catching super deep vs. lags.
when i play nl i always like to think a few moves ahead to avoid problems later. not only for the present hand but future hands. this is why vs tricky players in my game i just play super fit or fold on flops, esp OOP, and just give up early when their "bluffs" are cheap (i dont care if i fold the best hand vs. a tricky guy in a 10 bb pot). it helps i dont have much of an ego in poker - i just assume anyone decent is at least as good as me and just avoid getting super involved vs them (at 1/3 and 2/5 not many are decent, thankfully)
Herofolding on the flop going to replace Herofolding on the river at the 2026 WSOP. Probably see some LCXF swag n’ tatts before the Main Event starts.
now that i think about it, from a meta standpoint im guessing the most +EV play is to fold the flop because vs this guy the best thing to do is to flop sets and let him blast off (and we didnt hit a set), and because theres always easier money to be made than bluff catching super deep vs. lags.
Calling a LAG from the SB with 99 and then check-folding a TT2 flop to a 1/4 pot size bet HU seems like a huge leak.
Calling a LAG from the SB with 99 and then check-folding a TT2 flop to a 1/4 pot size bet HU seems like a huge leak.
how is it worse than calling and then folding later on in the hand?
if you dont have a plan about how to react when the bets get exponentially bigger than you're just throwing away money on the flop.
Calling a LAG from the SB with 99 and then check-folding a TT2 flop to a 1/4 pot size bet HU seems like a huge leak.
how is it worse than calling and then folding later on in the hand?
if you dont have a plan about how to react when the bets get exponentially bigger than you're just throwing away money on the flop.
The plan is to "play poker" post-flop.
However, I'm with the crowd who believes that calling preflop is much worse than 3-betting, especially if the plan is to simply play fit-or-fold set mining, especially against a LAG who likely is raising wide and isn't going to stack off on most boards when you do hit your set.
Seems like the "plan" is to call down if the board and bet sizes are reasonable. The flop bet is not threatening.
Either villain is going to bet something closer to pot, which we can call or is going to massive overbet, which justifies peeling one at over 20:1 implied.
From the OP, I don't think we know how villain was going to play this one on turn and river
meaning what?
OP said villain likes to bet flop small and overbet turn/river.
whats your plan on bricks? call and pray? soul read? give him a dirty look? phone a friend?
this cant be true if villain likes to overbet turn and river if you play passive w/a set.
i mean folding the flop is terrible advice
You don't have to be a douche because the thought of playing with 99 OOP frightens you.
"Play poker" means exactly what it says.
In your shoes, you should obviously just fold pre-flop to the raise.
You don't have to be a douche because the thought of playing with 99 OOP frightens you.
"Play poker" means exactly what it says.
In your shoes, you should obviously just fold pre-flop to the raise.
set mining is very profitable vs the villain as described
so, tell me what "play poker" says if its so obvious
You don't have to be a douche because the thought of playing with 99 OOP frightens you.
"Play poker" means exactly what it says.
In your shoes, you should obviously just fold pre-flop to the raise.
set mining is very profitable vs the villain as described
so, tell me what "play poker" says if its so obvious
Probably means it comes down to who wants it more.
now that i think about it, from a meta standpoint im guessing the most +EV play is to fold the flop because vs this guy the best thing to do is to flop sets and let him blast off (and we didnt hit a set), and because theres always easier money to be made than bluff catching super deep vs. lags.when i play nl i always like to think a few moves ahead to avoid problems later. not
You’ve all heard of fish on a heater, but what about TINO on a b/e streak?
