77 pre with 25bb
$2 daily, mid-tournament, half way through between rebuy period and money
I'm on BB with with 25bb and 77
avg stack is 20bb
HJ jams for 15bb, CO joins with similar stack
I think there was some UTG mini open too but I can't remember
Assuming there wasn't, is it worth it? If i hold, I'm 55bb, if I lose then 10bb which is still something
8 Replies
Fold
Yeah, probably correct to fold. (Certainly if all this happened after a UTG raise.) Your best-case scenario is probably being up against three overcards, although you might get lucky if say HJ jammed A5s and CO rejammed AK. Or, obviously, if they both had AK, but that's unlikely and a thin needle to thread.
You can try to come up with ranges for them and run them in something like Equilab to get an exact idea of what your equity is and if it's worth it.
(My own initial estimates give you less than 28% equity against two ranges, which isn't enough. Those estimates may be off, considering the stakes, and that HJ jamming 15BB shouldn't really be a thing here. CO's range is the biggest worry, though, and unless they're way off of what they should be calling with, it's still not good for you. Even expanding the CO range by one pip all around added less than 3% to your equity.)
Short version: Unless CO is a total maniac, you're at best flipping there, never dominating-- all the worse pairs fold (maybe not 66, but probably) and all the better pairs call. And HJ further pulls from your equity unless their hands overlap.
Yeah, probably correct to fold. (Certainly if all this happened after a UTG raise.) Your best-case scenario is probably being up against three overcards, although you might get lucky if say HJ jammed A5s and CO rejammed AK. Or, obviously, if they both had AK, but that's unlikely and a thin needle to thread.You can try to come up with ranges for them and run them in something li
I know you asked me not to post results but here I have to since you guessed - yes, the CO was a maniac an the “best scenario” occurred so the original jam was with AQo and the Maniac rejammed with A6o. I was looking at this from the ICM perspective, I’m risking 15 bb to win 30 and I’m insured for 10 bb in case my greed fvcks me over
Posting results after you get feedback is fine, but you don't want to do it in the initial post because that will skew the answers you get.
And that's one of those spots that's tough to predict and really does require bad play from the HJ. If you know they're that loose with it, maybe you can call then. Those actual hands are a pretty good scenario for you, but if HJ turns over KJs it's not anymore even though you're technically ahead.
My initial ranges were
HJ: 44-99, ATs+, AJo+, KTs+, KQo, QJs
CO: 77+, AJs+, AQo+
Like I said, widening CO to 66+, ATs+, AJo+ added less than 3% equity to your hand. Expanding HJ to include A8s+, A5s, and ATo added less than half a percentage point on top of that.
But it's a thin needle to thread-- this is only a +cEV call for you (even setting aside $EV) if you can be confident they each have Ax hands that interfere with one another, and there's no way to predict that neither one has a pair above yours. And it's only a very good call if HJ is jamming A2-A7 and CO also has an Ax hand. (Or, I mean, it's a great call if, say, they both have 66, but what are the odds of that?)
Thanks
So trying to give HJ a crazy range actually made your equity go down.
I ran it with same original range for CO and HJ now shoving:
22-99, A2s+, A5o+, K9s+, KJo+, QTs+, JTs
The problem is, if HJ is wild enough to shove that many weak aces, they're probably also going to shove a lot of suited broadways, which a)have good equity against you and b)make it less likely that HJ's hand interferes with CO's hand.
So trying to give HJ a crazy range actually made your equity go down.I ran it with same original range for CO and HJ now shoving:22-99, A2s+, A5o+, K9s+, KJo+, QTs+, JTsThe problem is, if HJ is wild enough to shove that many weak aces, they're probably also going to shove a lot of suited broadways, which a)have good equity against you and b)make it less likely that HJ's hand in
Yep, i folded for a reason, im only moaning cause I’d held
I think there was some UTG mini open too but I can't remember
This is an important factor here, HJ jamming and rejamming ranges are quite different T_T
