Can you really adhere to ICM math in Omaha tournaments?
I was looking at ICM values for a FT bubble in a tournament I played yesterday. We have 23bb in 3rd place. 1st has a massive chip lead with 90bb. Here is the calculation: https://www.icmizer.com/icmcalculator/#ZqAy
To double through the chip leader instead of folding our BB, we would need an equity of 68.9%. (x*1314.80+(1-x)*230=977.87. 1314 is ICM value when we win, 230 is payout when we lose, and 977 is ICM value when we fold. x equals 0.689)
For reference, AAJTds only has 65% equity against 9542ss. So if we're going to take ICM seriously, it seems that the correct play would be to fold 100% of our hands against the chip leader unless we hope to overrealize our equity.
Edit: Note that this is not even an extreme example. There's plenty of spots on the FT where we would need >68% equity to risk all our chips as long as there are short stacks on the table + a clear chip leader (ie. most final tables).
2 Replies
Your math looks correct facing a shove:
Spoiler
To double through the chip leader instead of folding our BB, we would need an equity of 68.9%. (x*1314.80+(1-x)*230=977.87. 1314 is ICM value when we win, 230 is payout when we lose, and 977 is ICM value when we fold. x equals 0.689)
Pot odds = risk / (risk + reward)
In MTTs risk and reward are defined as the change to the ICM value of your stack relative to folding
- risk = $977 - $230 = $747
- reward = $1314 - $977 = $337
So you are risking $747 to gain $337, therefor you need to win about 2x as often as you lose to justify calling.
747 / (747 + 337) = 68%
For reference, AAJTds only has 65% equity against 9542ss. So if we're going to take ICM seriously, it seems that the correct play would be to fold 100% of our hands against the chip leader unless we hope to overrealize our equity.
However, Omaha is typically pot limit. You don't get the money in all at once. If they could somehow open shove 23bb then yeah you'd be in trouble. But presumabley action went something like open 3x, you 3b to lets say 9bb, and they shove for 22bb.
Now, folding leaves you with 14bb ($775 ICM value). Calling and winning brings you to ~47bb ($1326), and losing nets $230. So you're risking $545 to gain $551, thus your pot odds are closer to 1:1 and you need about 50% equity.
1:1 odds are still pretty rough. It's especially sucky for Omaha players because you have no 3b jam at this depth.
Sure, but we should only 3-bet aces if we think 3-betting will make it overperform it's equity - which it actually surely will if the chipleader adheres to ICM math as well and folds a good chunk of his opening range, so I admit that the premise of this thread is flawed and silly. (Not to mention that we have 70+ % equity against a bunch of his hands containing aces and pairs.)
