Nut Nut's Attempt At A Book About Politics & Society
Dear Forum Members,
Over in the poker threads, they have members who blog about their poker experience. I've been wanting
I have no idea what I am reading. Is this the beginning of your proposed book? Is it an outline of your book? Who is the intended audience for this book?
It reads like a very, very, very general scientific history of the world aimed at a fifth or sixth grade audience, with some dubious tangents thrown in and a dollop of Deism/creationism on top.
Back in my day, they used to just say, "Twoplustwo is not your blog" and lock it.
Based on your prior posts, I assume that what you are trying to write can be summarized as follows:
1) Anthropogenic climate change is real.
2) The effects of anthropogenic climate change are potentially catastrophic.
3) Our best hope (and perhaps only hope) of preventing 2 is to reorganize society and government in a way that isn't predicated on market economics.
If I am correct, 3 is the meat. 1 and 2 have been discussed at length over the last two decades and I highly doubt that you will add anything to the discussion of those points. Lead with the meat. Ditch the attempt to open with your own version of the book of Genesis. Ditch tangents that have nothing to do with 1, 2, or 3 (like your musings on human genetics and endurance).
Based on your prior posts, I assume that what you are trying to write can be summarized as follows:1) Anthropogenic climate change is real.2) The effects of anthropogenic climate change are potentially catastrophic.3) Our best hope (and perhaps only hope) of preventing 2 is to reorganize society and government in a way that isn't predicated on market economics. If I am corr
3) would be the meat if it covered how to enforce that worldwide (or at least for a very significant portion of the world population).
How to enforce it in practice.
Because let's say we buy 3) is enforceable in , say, the USA (by democratic voting en masse in favour, with such large numbers that you can change the constitution where needed, to achieve an actual socialist country), what are the proposed steps to enforce the same in countries that make up at least other 4 billion people? just to have a shot?
OR is the claim that you can let all of asia and africa do what they want and "the climate" can be fixed even if china, india, mexico, indonesia and so on keep doing this
This guy ran 180 miles in one day. A sled dog can't do that.
A sled dog can do 100 miles every single day and could probably do the 180 but people would consider that cruelty to animals.
Thr Iditarod record is covering 937 miles over 8 days (through snow). No human powered human is doing that although certainly the guy you linked is amazing but he set his record on a track.
3) would be the meat if it covered how to enforce that worldwide (or at least for a very significant portion of the world population).How to enforce it in practice.Because let's say we buy 3) is enforceable in , say, the USA (by democratic voting en masse in favour, with such large numbers that you can change the constitution where needed, to achieve an actual socialist country
You are talking about the practical impediments to implementing 3 on a global scale, which I of course agree would be immense.
Are we just going to ignore this?
In the case of Africans who were enslaved, it's quite clear that those doing the enslaving put a premium on the strength and power which is embodied in the dominance of sprinting dominance of black athletes from places like the US and Jamaica.
I thought Jimmie the Greek died 30 years ago.
What chapter is the methods for population control?
You are talking about the practical impediments to implementing 3 on a global scale, which I of course agree would be immense.
yes i am talking about that because i THINK (i hope?) nut nut can acknowledge that without widespread global implementation of his ideas, his model fails to deliver what he thinks is necessary.
So, given the scale of the problem, and given the lack of coverage on the "how do we get China and the rest to comply?" issue, i was wondering if he intended to cover that.
I am genuinely curious about that part, because without that, it's absurd and a folly to ask for everything else, and it would be actually terribly bad for people in 1st world country to sacrifice immensely , gaining nothing in return, even if the scenarios nut nut believes would come to fruition are all proper estimates of the future.
Unless you get China, India and so on on board, even if you agree with nut nut about literally everything else, the proper action strategy for 1st world country MIGHT be to switch to socialism and keep consumption state-controlled and heavily limited, but only after they genocide the rest of the world , or most of it.
Explaining Climate Change Feedback Loops & Where We're Headed Without a Miracle
(fyi - I see the criticisms above, but none of them are related to the substance of my posts which no one seems to be interested in discussing. The purpose of the science lessons are to explain WHY the collapse of human civilization is very likely in the near term. )
None of us has a crystal ball which allows us to see the future and a true scientist acknowledges uncertainty. In the earlier example explaining a tipping point, I used the example of a boulder passing the peak of a hill and being destined to come to rest in the valley below the other side .... but in that case, we couldn't rule out Superman swooping down from the sky to stop the boulder).
So let's do the hard work of trying to explain the feedback loops which we have engaged and where they lead.
Fact #1 - Greenhouse Gases Are The Only Thing Which Keeps Heat From Leaving The Earth's Atmosphere
The higher the GHG levels, the warmer the planet gets. Most of the heat (> 90%) is stored in the ocean. The media reports on surface atmospheric temps where only 1% of the incremental heat is currently being stored. The other primary consequence of human emissions is significant ocean acidification as the ocean absorbs a significant percentage of CO2.
Fact #2 - A Warmer Atmosphere Releases More GHG's From Land Sinks
There is much more GHG potential in the ground than there is in the atmosphere today. If you warm up the air, then frozen ground such as permafrost begins to thaw. The micro-organisms in the soil begin to decompose the organic matter and their metabolism releases CO2 and methane.
Fact # 3 - A Warmer Atmosphere Increases The Breeding Cycles of Bark Beetles
Bark Beetles feed on trees. A larger population weakens the trees which die in increasing numbers. The dead trees release their CO2 contents into the atmosphere.
Fact # 4 - A Warmer Atmosphere Melts More Snow & Ice
As snow and ice disappear, the Earth gets darker. A darker Earth absorbs more solar incoming radiation and creates more heat.
Fact #5 - A Warmer Atmosphere Causes More Wildfires
For each increase of 1C in atmospheric temperature, the atmosphere can hold an additional 7% of water vapor. So the atmosphere is like an increasingly strong vacuum cleaner which is sucking moisture out of the Earth's soil and plants. This leads to increasing drought and conditions ripe for wildfires. The trees that burn release their CO2 into the atmosphere.
Fact # 6 - A Warmer Ocean Holds Less CO2 and Transfers More To The Atmosphere
The solubility of a gas in water is inversely proportional to the temperature of the water. As the ocean warms, it's capacity to hold CO2 declines and a greater proportion remains in the atmosphere to trap heat.
Fact # 7 - A Warmer Ocean Melts More Land Ice At An Accelerating Pace
The majority of ice loss from the great ice sheets at the poles is driven by ocean water making contact with the ice sheets below the surface. Much of these ice sheets sit on retrograde slopes (the land gets lower as it proceeds inland) which were formed as a result of glacial movements in and out in the geologic past. As the ice melts at the grounding line (the place where ice sheets contact the surface below), the surface area exposed to the melting forces increases. The loss of ice here also darkens the planet and leads to more absorption of solar radiation.
Fact #8 - A Warmer Ocean Has The Potential To Release Significant Quantities Of Methane
There are a lot of methane hydrates stored on the ocean floor, particularly in the shallow peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean. A warming of the ocean floor could release these stored GHG's into the atmosphere.
Summary
All of these factors reinforce each other. More GHG's ==> More Heat == > More Release Of GHG's From Land & Ocean Sinks ==> More Heat ==> Etc.
We have initiated a feedback loop.
I have no idea what I am reading. Is this the beginning of your proposed book? Is it an outline of your book? Who is the intended audience for this book?
It reads like a very, very, very general scientific history of the world aimed at a fifth or sixth grade audience, with some dubious tangents thrown in and a dollop of Deism/creationism on top.
The intended audience is those who are genuinely interested in the truth of whether or not we are headed for an apocalypse and are concerned with how we navigate an apocalypse. The science is meant as a proof ..... just like in geometry class.
It is purposely aimed at a junior high school intelligence level because that's the average scientific intelligence of a US citizen in my opinion. I want to write something which is accessible to a layperson. It's not complicated.
My views on God are autobiographical. If I'm going to offer to run the world differently than the people who are currently doing the job, it's fair for the readers to understand where I'm coming from and what I believe and value.
I'm an American, a country which claims to be a democracy and represent the will of the people.
In theory, the American people can ask their govt to create a cooperative treaty with other countries just as we did in WW2.
At this moment in time, there are no visible politicians occupying the niche of trying to unify the sovereign tribes of the world into a cohesive whole. The head of the UN is screaming into the void.
I'm lobbying for that niche to be filled. I think there are probably better people than myself to fill the role. But in the absence of anyone else standing up and offering to fill that niche, I'll offer myself as a placeholder.
I'm asking people to set aside their tribal differences and become part of a single human tribe. I'm asking my fellow Americans to disclose that they prefer survival over their American identity.
Would you care to comment on the substance of the argument ?
Do you think it's a coincidence that American's and Jamaican's are dominating sprint events and Ethiopians and Kenyans are dominating long distance events or do you think there is a genetic element at work ?
I sadly agree with you.
In my idealized version of a healthy society, scientific understanding would not be weird. But you're correct in your assertion that trying to engage with people on a scientific basis is weird from a social perspective.
I am not unaware of my weirdness.
Can We Stop The Feedback Loop That We've Initiated ?
Again .... this is a question about an uncertain future and none of us has a crystal ball. So I can't say that I know the answer.
But each of has to make a decision about which course of action is appropriate.
For someone like myself ..... there is a question about whether to dwell in a hospice mode of thinking which acquiesces to an apocalypse or a warrior mode of thinking which struggles to salvage something of humanity. There is no right answer. Each of us has a different nature and environmental influences which commands us to take one stance or the other.
My background as a Jewish child who grew up not long after the Holocaust informed me that the correct approach for me was not to be silent in the face of the next one.
My logical intuition tells me that we have passed too many tipping points and human civilization is almost certainly doomed. My biology revolts against this conclusion ... I'm wired to struggle. So I'm going to live in synch with my biology. I'm more at peace with the version of myself which is not a quitter.
Notwithstanding the feedback loops which I delineated in an earlier post, the primary signal that we have passed important tipping points is the acceleration in the annual increase of CO2 levels while human emissions have essentially peaked. It points to a real possibility that the leakage of GHG's from land and ocean sinks is making the feedback loops self sustaining and immune from human intervention.
My views on God are autobiographical. If I'm going to offer to run the world differently than the people who are currently doing the job, it's fair for the readers to understand where I'm coming from and what I believe and value.
Wait. You are offering to run the world? That's the purpose of this exercise?
The purpose of the exercise is to propose a way of running the world which allows our species to be salvaged.
My personal role in it is unimportant.
I am simply offering myself as a placeholder and an example of someone who is willing to run the world differently. Ideally, the person selected would be arrived at in a competitive fashion via debate and the solicitation of alternative possibilities.
Step 1 is realizing both you and this world need a king. Step 2 is realizing you are incapable of being the king. You’re halfway there.
However, it sounds like you’re pretty old so you might want to pick up the pace.
Has this book been written in its entirety? If so, why are you dropping it 200 words at a time?
My political identity is quite simple.
I am opposed to those who would seek to conduct the experiment which would prove or disprove a prophecy in which humans ascend to heaven as a result of an Earth apocalypse.
I would begin by asking the audience whether they wish that experiment to be conducted or not.
My assumption is that no one here would acknowledge support for or active participation in such an experiment and thus by default ..... everyone would be on my side,
My political identity is quite simple. I am opposed to those who would seek to conduct the experiment which would prove or disprove a prophecy in which humans ascend to heaven as a result of an Earth apocalypse. I would begin by asking the audience whether they wish that experiment to be conducted or not. My assumption is that no one here would acknowledge support for or active
Dude, I track the messages being delivered in the Christian world as closely as just about anyone and this is not on the radar. Yet, I’ve seen you bring it up at least three times now as your personal bogeyman.
Every time you bring it up, you diminish what little credibility you have left.
