Trips facing a river jam.
Hi Guys.
Interested to hear thoughts/opinions on this hand I played yesterday in a £500 live MTT.
Top 15 qualify for Day 2. Currently 27 left and I'm above average with around 140k (average is around 105k).
Blinds are 1000/2500 with a 2500 bb ante.
Folds to the HJ who from a stack of around 120k raises to 10k.
I'm OTB with AcQc and elect just to flat - SB and BB are both fairly short stacked and feel if a squeeze jam comes in, I can reevaluate what HJ does and play accordingly or if no jam, see a flop in position. Both blinds fold so heads up to a flop of:
Kh Qd Js
Goes check, check.
Turn is Qd.
HJ leads for 15k.
I call.
River is 8h.
HJ goes all in.
What's the play? He seemed fairly comfortable and I'd seen him play a hand around 20 mins ago where he'd bet the river and said to his opponent "I'll show one if you fold". His opponent called and villain had a full house. On this hand with me, he said something very similar "If you fold, I'll show" to which I said "Oh thanks" and he just smiled and said "Anytime".
A call and win pretty much guarantees us Day 2 with a very playable stack. A call and lose leaves us with around 6bbs.
10 Replies
Any read on him 4xing pre (into short stacks)? Does he do it every hand?
So he jams 2x pot on the river?
Can you estimate how good he can evaluate where he's at based on his past game? Is it some short of fish or does he have reasonable poker knowledge and makes reasonable plays besides this hand?
As of now, it's kings full or nothing, and he has no real reason to choose this line to bluff you off something if he has nothing, you check back flop so he'll oftenly fire 2x pot into a range that has a lot of trip queens which may not be the best idea for him if he wants to get folds after he also checked flop [deceivingly].
KK may check flop in his shoes since he blocks top pair continues.
Any read on him 4xing pre (into short stacks) Does he do it every handSo he jams 2x pot on the riverCan you estimate how good he can evaluate where he's at based on his past game Is it some short of fish or does he have reasonable poker knowledge and makes reasonable plays besides this handAs of now, it's kings full or nothing, and he has no real reason to choose this line to b
Unfortunately not - I'd recently moved tables so only been playing with him around 20/25 minutes.
regards the live situation: "Ill show you if you fold", smiling, "anytime" unfortunately Im not knowledgeable in, I tried to look it up in my pdf of "reading poker tells" but cant find it.
Ill give you my estimation of what it's likely leading to / achieving:
it gives you a feel / energy of "oh he's nice, there's no danger, Ill be nice to him too and call him off" and then he gets what he wants, you paying him off
He's probably not a complete fish based on his speech play (fishy 4x sizing pre though but whatever it's live)
I'd just take it as a new situation (independent of the previous one moments ago) and fold. I think it's likely just the same again, if someone more versed doesn't agree please speak up
He got his reward with same speech play in the previous hand, so when he's doing it again, it's rather because his system / nature is wired like that and will make him seek same reward with methods that worked before, than him trying some rationalized higher level deception based on previous hand that may or may not work.
It's an emotional and energetic way to achieve the desired result (a call) no matter any rational obstacles.
He may also at some not too high frequency show up with a queen there after your flop checkback, but then his 2x pot river jam will condense his one paired Qx range heavily around AQ, and 2xpot for a split will be too much when we're somewhat just guessing and usually he'll actually be having kings.
That board is too scary looking for weak players to go too crazy on it on average in vacuum.
My thought process was that when he checked flop and then lead turn, he might have some sort of Kx, Qx, Tx.
The river jam. What hands do we bear in his value/bluff/semi bluff range given we are underrepresented here with how I played AQs.
QTs, Q9s, AK, TT, JTs, KTs
Realistically, what are we losing against.
I think KK bets this flop as does JJ and KJs. AK maybe checks, but we also block it. AT I think checks and bets in similar frequency but again we block some combos. A lot of his Qx, I.e. QTs, Q9s checks then leads turn but we block a lot of these too. So, realistically I think we're up against a lot of thin value hands that we beat and bluffs and not a lot of value given how this has played out.
I did call and he showed 88 for the rivered boat.
Could anyone stick this through a solver?
88 makes somewhat sense for a bad player to have here, it's coherent with his protective 4x preflop sizing but not oftenly one would choose to go into the line of betting turn with it on that board,
you're somewhat capped after not 3betting pre (though you can have slowplays as you did have here with AQ for the reason of 3betshoves from the shorties in the blinds) and checking back flop (do you ever check back two pair? He thus can somewhat exclude kq, qj from your range but not be completely sure of you not having better full houses).
All in all he ends up there with a weird but very strong (in his eyes probably even stronger) hand that beats us which is just coherent with how everything played out and the player he is
It's an amateurish player you're up against, he doesn't have any distinguished bluff, value, semibluff ranges, he just plays the hand he has, and he's not bluffing here (above reasoning in previous posts)
In this hand his (emotional) reasoning was something along
Pre: strong hand, fears overcards, signals willingness to get it in VS the short stacks in the blinds, but maybe doesn't feel too good about it when for example flipping against overcards or going postflop with a vulnerable hand in comparison to just picking up the blinds right here and now
Thus 4x sizing pre
Flop: scared of 3 overs on Broadway flop, checks
Turn: feels weakness from your checkback and tries to protect again with a bet, though The Q may have strengthened your checkback range
River: rivers (to him subjectively perceived) nuts and goes for greedy max value from possibly strong but not so strong holdings that connect with the Broadway high cards on the board that you all may have
Goes for speech game that has already worked before
