Nut Nut's Attempt At A Book About Politics & Society

While "scientific inquiry" can throw people off, the position that rejects revelation as a source of knowledge about God, and instead hold that God's existence can be determined through empirical reasoning and observation is simply what we commonly call "deism".

The claim isn't that a scientist proved god, but that you as a rational, reasoning individual see evidence of the existence of a god through various empirical observations - for example said scientist's work. Of course, that position can be debated ad nauseam... as it has been for many centuries. Still, it is not a "weird" position for a book or an essay, if the aim is to explain personal beliefs or discuss theology.

Personally, I find the concept of environmentalism rooted in religious or spiritual beliefs interesting. It has always been strange to me why this isn't more common. One should think that if one believes in or intuits the existence of a creator, then preserving said creation should easily become a religious or spiritual tenet. And while that happens, it seems like the position "since there is a creator, I can pollute and destroy as much as I want to" is much more common.

That said, a debate like this always borders on a debate on the nature or existence of god, and it becomes boring quickly when that side takes over.

Thanks for that reply TD, I get it better.
My problem with this approach is it instantly orientate the discourse and (to me) tend to alienate the non believer /atheist portion of population.
While not mentionning god to begin with (and responding only if asked about) leave way more room for discussion.
Not mentionning doesn't create conflict on its own.

Now if the goal of the book is to talk to religious people, so be it, but be clear about it.

So you are writing the book as you go along with this thread? This feels a lot more like a blog than a book.

Perhaps, but there are is no shortage of people who would volunteer to rule the world.

Your premise is incorrect. In 2024 the top 10 times in the 100 meters for men did include included 3 men from USA and 2 from Jamaica. But also 2 from South Africa, 1 from Italy, 1 from Kenya, and 1 from Botswana. The 34 men that broke 10 seconds also include athletes from Cuba, Liberia, Nigeria, UK, Italy, Japan, Colombia, Gambia, France, Cameroon, Canada, and Germany. If anything, people who have ancestry from West Africa may be represented at a higher rate that one might expect, but it has nothing to do with the offensive slave owner breeding program you put forth.

"may be", 33 out of 34 lol

I should not be, but I am surprised you consider Kenya and South Africa to be in West Africa.

I thought the south african was actually of west african descent, while i just missed the kenyote by bad. Sorry just 31 out of 34, can still be random! (not)

Your logic is quite strange Lucifer. It comes across as something like this .... that the future will be determined by the democratic opinion of the participants of Two Plus Two.

I don't think the future will be determined by popular opinion. I think it will be determined by God given nature whose laws are encapsulated in physics, chemistry, biology and mathematics.

The opinions on this matter of those who are ignorant of science aren't worth a lot in my opinion.

I agree that the process appears a bit messy. But I'm gathering insight, material and information along the way.

You're not reading a book .... you're observing samples of content and the process of gathering information for a book.

WHAT is Collapse & WHEN Will The Next Version of Societal Collapse Occur ?

This is really one of the big and relevant questions for humanity and individuals like our selves who will have to navigate a changing world.

In order to answer this question scientifically, we would need to have a definition of the term "collapse" and I confess that I don't have something very precise.

I'd like to throw out some data points by which collapse might be identified and ask the audience here to weigh in.

1) A World War

Currently we have conspicuous armed conflict in places like Ukraine, Gaza and recently Iran. We also have global trade war and the war for AI supremacy. There is also ever present religious and racial conflict. Formerly respected international institutions like the UN and ICJ are being ignored by sovereign powers like the US which was pivotal in their creation in the first place. We have an American president who speaks aloud of the desire to annex Greenland & Canada.

At this moment ... we are not at a collapse threshold ... but there are some dark signs.

2) Financial System Collapse

Let's imagine that we have hyperinflation in the US and the dollar loses its status as the global reserve currency or the US defaults on its debt obligations. It's difficult to imagine what might succeed it.

Alternatively, let's imagine that the developers of AI, in conjunction with robotics, are able to develop a viable alternative to most human labor which displaces a critical mass of the work force and drives unemployment > 25% and the governments don't respond with something like UBI for displaced workers.

3) Number or % of People Who Are Food Insecure

Currently, aid organizations which track these kind of things tell us that ~ 700 million people around the globe are currently food insecure. The quality of that data is of course open to question.

4) Collapse of Major Governments Such As The US

Let's imagine it's Jan 2029. The Project 2025 folks who are currently taking over the DC law enforcement apparatus and populating it with their loyalists refuse to cede the governing territory in the Capitol and the White House to the victors in the 2028 election. Or there is no 2028 election.

These are just some suggestions ..... I am interested to know how you might define collapse. It's impossible to try the timing of an undefined event.

The Data Which Points To Societal Collapse

At the end of the day, my belief is that things will hold together pretty well so long as a critical mass of people have reliable access to food, clothing and shelter.

There is a big difference between reliable access and literal access. If I have enough food for 3 days and all the food markets have been closed. I don't have a source I can rely upon. Humans don't wait until they are starving to become disruptive. Things start to fall apart when they can anticipate being unable to fulfill their needs. That's why humans elect people like Donald Trump. He's willing to let a lot of people die and reduce the competition for increasingly scarce resources. People want to be on his good side so that they aren't part of the sub-group which gets eliminated.

1) Atmospheric GHG concentrations

We're a species that grew up in a environment with 7 - 12.5 Mt Everests of CO2 equivalent.

Currently 30 Mt Everest Equivalents (MEE) and adding ~ 1/6 MEE per year at this point. The growth in MEE is increasing each year.

Understanding what this means .... that's enough for me.

2) Ocean Acidification / pH

Human CO2 emissions don't all go to the atmosphere. The ocean absorbs a lot and that is making the ocean more acidic. Ocean pH has declined from ~ 8.2 to slightly less than 8.1.

This is the variable most highly correlated to mass extinctions in the geologic past.

3) Biodiversity Loss

Life on Earth is an integrated system and humans are not independent of that. Most of the cells inside a human body are not human .... they are symbiotic bacterial cells.

We create pesticides like RoundUp to kill insects and maximize the crop yield and they do the job for a little while. But long run, they kill a lot of good things. This is no different than the short-term marvel of antibiotics. Good for a century or two, but the evolutionary cycles of the bacteria we are trying to kill are too quick and they are evolving into superbugs which are immune to our antibiotics.

The current background rate of biodiversity loss is commensurate with a mass extinction.

4) Concentrations of Toxins Such as Environmental Plastic and PFAS

Plastic is another one of those things which is super convenient and advantageous in the short term. But the growth in its use has exploded and now all of our bodies are being contaminated with it. There is now no such thing as true organic food grown outdoors because the plastic rains down from the sky.

5) Sea Level Rise

The ocean is rising globally as a result of thermal expansion and melt of the polar ice sheets and glaciers. There are also a host of factors which cause it to rise or fall regionally. Humans built up infrastructure during the abnormal stability of the Holocene which began 11,700 years ago. Settlement adjacent to the oceans was common and high proportion of the human population lives adjacent to the land / ocean interface.

That coastal land is now destined to be submerged as it was during the Eemian 115,000 years ago. It won't happen overnight .... but the knowledge that it will do so is going to be unsettling .... both emotionally and economically.

6) Economic Indicators

Human societies have economic systems which effectively reside in the penthouse of a building where the environment is the foundation. When the foundation crumbles, we see the penthouse begin to wobble.

a) Inflation

The Earth is finite so the raw materials become increasingly scarce as the economy grows.

b) Losses

As the weather becomes more extreme, the infrastructure grows increasingly vulnerable. Winds, flooding and wildfire are all amplified as we transition away from the Goldilocks version of the planet we were formerly blessed with. Places which were previously considered relatively immune to climate damages are discovered to be vulnerable. Asheville, NC got zapped by Hurricane Helene. People in the Midwest gag on Canadian wildfire smoke.

c) Defaults & Bankruptcies

As assets become uninsurable, they lose value and become "under water" as the value of the asset becomes less than the debt used to acquire it. People walk away. Consumer credit defaults arise when people can't afford to pay all of their bills.

At the highest level, the credit rating of the US govt has been downgraded as a result of a Congress which passes legislation that amplifies the national debt.

I have a question for you weeez .... what is the atheist explanation for creation ?

As far as I'm concerned, atheism is an unnecessarily alienating stance to take in the first place. If you don't have a strong sense of how the universe came to be ..... why not choose agnosticism ?

That sense of alienation that you feel is one that you choose. It's a form of tribal identity which separates you from others.

My version of God is unified. I see you and I as being a part of the same whole. I don't choose an identity which separates me from others as you do.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/plastics-treaty-talks-fail

Common Dreams

Plastics Treaty Talks End in 'Abject Failure' as US, Other Big Oil Allies Sabotage Progress | Common Dreams

Some people like craig want to ridicule me for suggesting the possibility that there is a sect of people who want to destroy life on Earth.

I fully acknowledge that I can't prove such a thing. But I look at thing like this ..... where the US effectively vetoes a global wish to create a treaty which limits plastic proliferation. And I ask myself .... what animates these ****ers in the Project 2025 / Heritage Foundation / Federalist Society world ???

What explanation makes sense for their behavior ?

They give every appearance of religious zealotry and a willingness to destroy life on Earth.

https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/...

For those interested in some peer reviewed research.

To understand this ..... a few definitions

An autotroph is an organism capable of producing its own energy via photosynthesis. A heterotroph is an organism which gets its energy second hand from an autotroph. Like a human.

NPP or Net Primary Production is the energy generated by plants.

HANPP is the proportion of NPP appropriated by humans. The more humans appropriate, less is available to environmental maintenance.

What is occurring is similar to what is portrayed in the fairy tale The Goose With The Golden Eggs

The goose was good for one egg a day. The owner wanted more than the goose could sustain and wound up with nothing. Inability to moderate our appetite for more means we'll die as a result of our gluttony.

Untrained adult huskies can put run daily marathons if you let them. Trained sled dogs can put up 100 miles while pulling, in the snow. Even elite marathon runners aren't even in the same league in terms of endurance although they'd win on flat paved ground in typical race conditions (which is too hot for huskies)

I tend to believe that the audience here at 2 +2 is representative of the world at large.

So .... the conundrum is how to gain traction with an issue that is based in math and science with an audience that has little aptitude for math and science ?

So ..... the premise of the book is that human civilization is collapsing and we require very special and competent management to guide us to an outcome in which some version of human civilization is salvaged.

Part of the qualification for that leadership is that they will have to make difficult and unpopular decisions.

I'm demonstrating my capacity for willingness to tell people an unpopular truth.

Humans are so oriented to popularity that they allow themselves to imagine that popularity can override nature, science and math.

If this were a court of law with an impartial jury, the case against collapse would have no expert witnesses. It can easily be demonstrated beyond a reasonable doubt based upon the evidence that human civilization is collapsing.

But people can't handle the truth because it's not popular.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

If I'm right, then I'm sharing a version of the world which the mainstream media is not sharing. We're talking about a media owned by Bezos, Musks and a few other oligarchs.

I believe I'm right and I'm afraid of the consequences for someone like myself who challenges the ruling authority.

America is no longer the place for free thinking and science. We're seeing massive cuts in science and outright dishonest and deadly propaganda when the EPA reverses important endangerment findings.

https://www.techradar.com/pro/a-massive-wyoming-data-center-will-soon-use-5x-more-power-than-the-states-human-occupants-and-no-one-knows-who-is-using-it

TechRadar

OpenAI might be building its biggest AI fortress in Wyoming—and it

Just bizarre. An AI data center in Wyoming that will use 5x as much electricity as all of its inhabitants.

Supposedly we live in a democracy ...... I don't recall the voters being presented with an election choice to vote on burning every last drop of fossil fuel that we can.

If people would think deeply about it ..... fossil fuels are the remains of dead plants and animals. Big fossil fuel deposits are associated with lots of animals dying at once. When we transfer all of that carbon from the ground into the atmosphere, we're recreating the conditions that led to all of those animals dying at once. We're creating the conditions for ourselves to all die at once.

Do we want that ?

I have no idea why you believe this.

It’s a very small portion of humanity that would choose to spend time here.

Edit: btw, this is totally a blog.

Roman "civic religion" , the emerging moral code of a myriad tiny cults and so on, was , at least for the elite (the only people who matter at the end) , extremely based, and very related to the idea that we forge our destiny and we control everything and that gives us the "green light" if not actually the moral imperative to change our surroundings to fit our needs as much as we want.

Obviously