1/2, $1k deep: Line check with bottom boat

I might be getting somewhat convinced here, especially focusing on the odds of SB calling a raise.

I was very focused on just getting another 1.5x the bet or so by getting the fish to call flop and fold turn, but jettisoning the knowledge that SB is going to x/f turn, I think you're right that raising the amount we wanted to collect from the fish keeps the door open to getting SB to pay off big with a variety of nicely made hands.

I think the only thing I wonder in the abstract would be how much of SB's likely turn lead are we absorbing by raising the flop and presumably getting checked to on the turn? Are we likely enough to get a turn bet called too? Maybe..

We need to be consistent with our logic while doing hand-reading and hand-analysis.

The CO and BTN limped in, from late position. That's pretty fishy. Then they over-called a 12.5BB raise from the SB. That's also pretty fishy.

I don't want to get too deep in the weeds trying to range them, but we're probably in safe territory assuming the following:

1. They don't have top of range - no TT+, no good AX, probably not even 77+ or even some marginally good AX.

2. They don't have bottom of range - no J4o, 72, offsuit 4-gappers, etc.

3. They probably have some hand that wasn't obviously strong enough to raise, but seemed too good to fold, and seems "playable" to a rec-fish who limp-over-calls a huge raise pre from late position.

This could be a lot of low suited AX, maybe even some better suited AX up to AQs, some offsuit AX, some suited KX, some offsuit KX, some low-middling PP's, some SC's, some suited or unsuited Broadway combos, and maybe some suited gappers. In other words - they have super-wide ranges here.

We can't start ascribing good play to them post-flop, when they play bad pre-flop. We can't say they show up with every combo of KX (bad), and they'll over-call with all those combos (bad), and then also say they'll fold all those combos if we raise (good).

We can't logically say they'll be bad enough to over-call with all their KX, but they'll never have any good draws that over-call. Of course all their good draws are over-calling when SB bets small, and we call, for the same reason they over-called pre - they're gambling they'll make a big hand.

I'd argue their draws are more likely to over-call than their whack-a$$ random KX combos. It's not about their skill or reasoning ability as a player. When players "just want to see a flop", what they really mean is they want to see if they smash the flop.

Once they see this KQ4 flop with some garbage like K8, they can fold when it goes bet-call, and say something like "I've got kicker problems". But they're not folding as readily with hands that still have potential to make the nuts and cooler someone on a future street.

We don't necessarily want them to come along with every hand we have beat, when the board is two-tone and two-Broadway, and there are almost no run-outs we're going to love.

We shouldn't be thinking about building a pot or all the money going in on the turn or river while we're still looking at this insanely dynamic flop. We should be thinking about how to navigate this situation so that we don't reverse-implied-odds ourselves right down to the felt.

Yes, a lot of the KX and low-middling pairs in their ranges are drawing slim, but all the draws in their ranges aren't, and by pure process of card removal, they're going to have more draws here than odd-ball KX. It's not a disaster if we raise, and a lot of those hands fold, no matter what they are.

We should also keep in mind that there is a non-zero percent chance the CO or BTN might show up here with 2P or draw combo that wants to get stacks in. And they could just be bad enough to want to raise with some random KX combo, or QXhh, or just the naked NFD. I'd much rather get stacks in with the CO or BTN if we raise and they 3B the flop than if everyone calls and the money somehow goes in on the turn or river.

I do think you and others in this thread are unintentionally biased by the knowledge of what happens after hero flats the flop c-bet. But we need to look at each decision point without any knowledge of the future actions.

I said in my first reply that I *think* we can raise flop. I explained in a later post that I don't love it, because the SB could have us beat. I only want to raise flop because I expect the CO and BTN to over-call if we flat, and that's an invitation to a future disaster, knowing their ranges are super-wide and draw-heavy.

I realize that by raising, we're likely to fold out the CO and BTN - and I'm 100% fine with that outcome, even if it means we win a smaller pot, since we weren't even supposed to see the flop with our actual hand.

When we're starting out $1k deep at 1/2, and there's only $100 in the pot going to the flop, we're deep enough to avoid disaster. So, yes, flatting with bottom set in this spot is absolutely an egregious slow play, IMO, when the SPR is 10, and we need to fade the deck over two streets.

We may just have to agree to disagree about how our average fish play.

Why can't we say that? Like I said, raising next-to-act is a shot across the bow for fish and shakes them out of station mode.

CO and BN limped in and then called after Hero flatted the raise. Fish massively underfold this spot because they are thinking "gee, I'm getting amazing odds on a huge pot here and any two cards can make the nuts!". Like think of the kind of fish that openly mocks you for folding SB after 4-5 limps. Similarly, on the flop, calling will drag along the fish because of the "great odds" meaning they can't fold a hand like K8o which, in their mind, just might be a winner as top pair. This is especially true because the fish who limp wide and don't call bets way too wide would have limp-folded most of the time. The double Broadway board is kind of favorable here, because IME Broadway-rag is a popular limp-calling hand.

Facing an immediate raise, the odds look much worse and Hero looks much stronger. The fish suddenly wakes up and sees monsters, and is going to be folding a lot. Yes, they might even be folding accurately compared to equilibrium in that spot, but fish aren't prohibited from acting correctly just because it's the right thing to do. Fish will RFI AA, too.

I'm not trying to say draws are folding; if I was equivocating in my last post it's because I think some of the high-equity draws are going to call even a raise, because indeed fish like nothing better than draws to the nuts.

I really am not that worried about turn cards other than a non-Q heart. An A or 9 completes JT but that's a smaller part of range than "any two hearts", and anything else is IMO not that scary. I am not buying the premise here that we are in some hurry to take this pot down now because of how vulnerable our hand is.

I cannot imagine a limping fish cold 3-betting, here or almost ever. If they somehow do, I would ask if they could have gotten here with QQ.

You couldn't have played the turn any worse, gross. AP just bet some money, nothing absurd.

Results:

BTN checked back river, said he had Qxhh.

Thanks y’all!

I wonder if QXhh folds flop if we raise.

Second pair and a draw to the 2ndNF? I doubt it seriously.

He will call $100 flop/$125 turn.

So we lost value not raising flop, and gave him a cheap opportunity to outdraw us.

Can't say I'm surprised at the reveal.