Is this ever a fold? Top set in wet board versus all in on river
NL5
Opponent had pretty reg stats and 70% agression frequency 3.0 agression factor
Hero MP with KdKh, raise 2,4 blinds
Big blind calls
Flop 3h 6h Kc
He checks, I bet 2,2 blinds, villain check-raises to 7,4 blinds
I re-raise to 14,8 blinds, villain calls
Turn 7h
Villain checks, I check
River 5c
Villain is all in (90 blinds)
Hero is beffuzled, he could have a 4 or a flush.
Spoiler
I folded
3 Replies
He also could have 33 or 66. A4hh is probably the only 4 he’d have and that hit the flush so if discount straights heee. Most suited Axhh combos could be in his range given that line. Hard to find too many out and out bluffs though.
If I did the math right you are calling 90 to win about 125 so you need around 41% equity to call. If villains range is as stated above he has 6 combos you beat (3 each of 33 and 66) and 12 that beat you (1 of each Axhh). That gives you 33% equity, so unless you think he would play something like AA or QQ this way (discounted because he flatted your preflop open) you probably should be folding.
Even if his range contains more hands you beat, it would then likely also include some hands I didn’t include like KQhh, KJhh etc that beat you, so it’s probably a reasonably good fold anyway
Your 3bet size on the flop doesn't accomplish much, BB can call all hands which have equity and fold their trash (I don't think they have trash very often, but I imagine they are supposed to raise 43 or 22 here with some frequency).
Turn is the nut card for BB, river I doubt they are trying to bluff.
