QQ in the blender defending 3-bet

I think this is a shove preflop with a little more than a psb left. Think need to shove or fold preflop. Is her range mostly AA/KK?

That's the $170 question 😀

At the table, after checking her stack, I decided the range was at least KK+/AK, probably QQ+ for all the one combo of QQ matters here, and maybe also JJ? She's here with a LAG reg who probably has given her pointers, she's not OWC. But that was a pretty wild guess. My plan was to shove on any flop other than A/K high and give up otherwise... I haven't done what feels like fairly simple math here to see if that's a good plan. I was a little surprised and confused to be allowed to see a river for free... would have read weakness into the line and called a smaller bet OTR.

I can definitely see an argument that this is shove or fold pre, and I strongly considered folding there too.

ed. I pulled out an odds calculator and QQ is 40% against KK+/AK, which is actually higher than I thought but not sure against exactly that range it really encourages shoving pre..

I'm all in pre.

As played I'm folding. I don't give someone credit for bluffing or value betting worse than QQ ever here.

I would easily and happily shove pre. As played I’m snap calling the river.

shove pre she has 170 bucks

I don’t think flatting makes sense. I’d shove vs most but I can see folding pre vs some really tight players.

As played I’m calling river and expecting to see either quads or ace high.

Not really a fan of flatting in this spot pre-flop. It's never going to be a mistake to jam QQ for $170 HJ vs SB unless you know the other player is a huge nit. Even a beginning player (esp under the influence of a LAG friend) will 3bet some AK and JJ. You might even find a button-clicking bluff in there sometimes. There is also a nonzero chance that a beginning player makes a big mistake and folds AK to a 4bet jam too.

Think I would sigh call the river expecting to lose a lot. It could be a bluff once in a while, and I think QQ or JJ is possible. If I had JJ in Villain's spot, I would definitely think it is the best hand. Also it's not really possible for you to have a better hand than QQ here.

Wow, I'm actually kind of surprised by the unanimous vote for shoving pre.

Obviously GTO charts don't precisely apply here, but facing a 3b HJ versus SB, GTOW is mostly flatting QQ and in general flatting 3b IP to close the action is fairly common. The deviation I was considering at the table was folding pre, because even if V is looser than the standard passive LLSNL player in this spot, there's no way she's as wide as a GTO 3b range (16+ combos of suited Ace-rag, KQo almost pure, bluffs like K6s) - not even close. I would also be rather surprised if there was much if any FE to be had by shoving.

I supposed I could have posted the lack-of-result in the OP: I folded river. There's a quite plausible story this is AK or even AA, and shoving with JJ seems slightly silly even for a less experienced player. Could be a bluff with A-high, but I chose not to bite.

against a laggy reg its an obvious jam pre and its not even close. if she folds, great. if she calls you are ahead of her range.

I would flip a coin on the river, or otherwise randomize between call and fold. This could be AK+ that wanted to let you catch up, a JJ-TT that decided they're ahead once you check the turn, or AQ etc representing a slow play. You didn't show much strength here so can't rule out the bluffs and thin value.

Even at this stack depth? I looked at HJ vs SB at 75bb and GTOW is mostly 4betting. You also ISO'd to 7.5bb (almost 10% of the effective stack sizes!) and there is 3bb of dead money, as well as what is likely an exorbitantly high rake. Under these conditions, I would expect GTOW would never flat QQ. There is just way too much money in the pot.

I was using 100bb and standard sizes, since I'm currently too cheap to pay for a subscription. $170 is 85bb not 75, but you're right that both <100bb and the larger 2b/3b sizings should influence toward more raise/fold (although GTOW does 3b 5.5x in this config). I'm not sure how much it changes things though, hence the thread.

At the table, I also thought I would be able to get information by going to a flop IP with the SPR over 1, and act intelligently. Her line ended up being a little more opaque than I expected (after checking back the turn, I was ready to call small or check back river), and I think if I redid the spot having seen her play this hand I might indeed just shove pre - it just seems less obvious than the rare 2+2 consensus. But I am always extremely wary of the first 3b someone makes at my table, before there is enough data to suggest they are capable of doing so with a real range.

I'd be curious what range is the tipping point for raise vs fold in a properly configured solver, and if it ever calls.

I think calling will outperform jamming preflop. You can equilab the ranges but JJ isn’t always calling a jam and 3bet frequencies are very low in 1/2 live games.

Flop is weird since it’s a range bet but I do like your X back.

Turn is well played too.

Fold river.

It’s very likely she is slow playing AK/KK with that river sizing.

Interested in results.

As an aside, all these theatrics weight her towards value as well. Usually people that are bluffing don’t make as many overt gestures like looking back and forth at the board and drawing attention to themselves.

So much of reading V's theatrics, which are relatively common with new players, is whether they're genuine (professional actors are good at acting, non-actors tend not to be ...). I'd say also that new players tend to be more trappy. They can also overvalue preflop and occasionally just randomly bluff with airballs but probably more as b-b-b rather than x-x-b. Would be a tight fold. Can just see her mind ticking over with AA in her hand (thinking: hope he has a K, hope has a K, oh no, hang-on, wait, he didn't bet turn so no he doesn't have a K ... AI). So maybe it's possible she set the trap with AA as well AK/KQ.

If V's acting fold, if not probably call.

AP I'd call the river.

I don't really think a king wants to slow play to the river to trap. Kk maybe. But that's obviously unlikely.

AA wouldn't shock me. But then not much would. I think she's more likely a genuinely novice player doing weird stuff than a wolf in sheep's clothing.

We are getting a price and have a very good hand.

This is very read dependent, but I find that a many girlfriends of poker regs don't really understand the game all that well, and she's probably picked up some laggy plays her BF has made before that she doesn't really fully understand. She probably hasn't played poker all that long, and therefore I'd take the squinting and slow play to be genuine, and not theatrics, and then I'd call.

Perhaps we are reading this differently, but I would have a VERY hard time assuming a girlfriend of poker reg is just intentionally playing weird and slow and 'hollywooding' and then constantly apologizing for it. Occam's razor here.

Yeh, of GF's or wife's that play poker ... it's a mixed bag. For the ones that only have $170 in a 1-2 game though, I'd assume they are bad regs. at best. So limping a bunch, very tight 3bet, mostly passive postflop, not shoving air on the river. If you had a read that she never limped then I'd heavily lean to not folding anywhere. If there's a reason she only has 170 (like lost 100 very recently and didn't top up) then I'd also think a lot more about not folding.

As others have said the line postflop, and the actions, seem like it's not a bluff (even the people very new to poker don't act "weird" when bluffing) ... so unless she's doing this with JJ/TT you are always cooked.

FWIW I do know a very studied 2-5 regs. GF who 4bet shoves A5s vs. me all the time at 1-2 (and often says it's a low frequency play).