Maximizing IP with ATs
1/3 NLHE 8 handed
Game is blah. We've been card dead and flop dead most of the night and are a little tired, down a little sitting at 450ish, both Vs cover.
V1 - asian straightfoward face up fish. 3-bet my LP open with QdQs earlier, I call IP with ThTd, runout K-8-6-5-7 h-c-s-h-h goes x x flop, delay cbet 1/3rd call, 1/4 pot river lead and I raze pot and V1 tank calls (had 500 back OTR and made it 250 into 250 wondering if I shouldve gone larger?). Covers BB.
V2 - white guy fish keeps talking strat at table, unknown to me but known to others, has been losing all night and topping up, has just over 500$, VPIP/PFR like 30/15, MP. Not much to go on but losing player for sure.
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V2 opens MP 12, we see A♣ T♣ OTB and decide to just call (we've been card dead and I felt a 3! generates too many folds), V1 3-bets to 68$, V2 calls I call. 3-ways IP.
Flop 200 - A♥ T♦ 4♥
V1 checks, V2 bets 75.... we have about 375 back....
Side note - I'd never heard of "flop dead" before this post, but it makes perfect sense. I'll be working that into future poker conversations, which are mostly with my dog, because my wife looks like she prays for my death whenever I try to talk to her about poker.
As for the hand...
PRE - flatting the open from the BTN with ATs is okay. A 3B would also be fine.
Once V1 3B's, it starts to get weird, because you're obviously not folding, but double-flatting really condenses your range. I'm not saying you need to raise or fold, just saying it's going to harder to know what to do post-flop, when we're getting to the flop with a range that's mostly middling starting hands.
FLOP - ugh. I'm torn about what to do now, when we smash the flop this hard, the PFR checks, and the other V takes the betting lead, but for this stupid-small size.
V2 isn't repping much. He may have AX, TX, or a flush draw. Maybe occasionally he gets OOL with some GSSD, or he does this with some higher equity combo, like pair + draw with a hand like KThh. Whatever he has, he's almost certainly not going to like it if we raise, and he should mostly fold.
V1 probably would have c-bet if he had an A, and is probably just going to fold if we call, and will definitely fold if we raise. There's a very slim chance he gets a wild hair up his a$$ and raises if we flat call, but he won't do that often enough for us to want to try to induce.
I don't like letting V2 set his own price to see the turn, and I don't like blowing him off his hand with a big raise. By process of elimination, I think we should raise small, like a min-click, and just plan on getting the rest in on most turns.
Alternatively, we could just jam it all in here, and pray he has AX and thinks we're FOS, or he wants to chase his flush draw. Just be mindful that if we jam and he calls, he'll often be doing it with some hand that has decent equity to improve.
V2 opens MP 12, we see A♣ T♣ OTB and decide to just call (we've been card dead and I felt a 3! generates too many folds)
Wat?
3b pre
fold pre as played
as played given your image jamming is probably fine. b/c you didnt 3b pre ppl will probably think you have hearts. if you have a normal image probably makting it $175 or something is best, then jamming turn.
I prefer 3bet pre but I think flatting IP can't be terrible. I snap fold to the 3bet from straight forward player, I guess this is a tight + strong range? Don't see how calling off an extra $56 out of $450 is good here.
Flop, I'm just going to stick it in. Hopefully fishy has a draw or decides to take a stand with KK or whatever. V2 should only be ahead with TT.
3 betting pre but as played I'm folding to the 3 bet.
I'm just ripping it in on the flop and pretty happy about it.
Really Against two seemingly straightforward players, ATs seems like an easy fold following the raise and call, especially having started the hand only 150bb deep.
For sure it would seem more GTO to just fold pre to the 3B. I suppose we might make some allowances for a double flat when hero has a hand that might have been 3B and thinks he has a skill edge IP post. Judging by the reads given, that seems to be what OP was getting at.
I'd like it better if the stacks were deeper.
I guess I'd say it's probably a mistake to over-call, but I don't think it's a massive mistake, if hero can effectively maneuver post. It's probably only slightly EV-.
Definitely fold flop to the raise. Kind of ironic we give credit for V1 playing face-up and then deliberately call into a range that should be crushing us. I can see a little bit of temptation with the first call in front, but it's really not worth it. It's the kind of tendency that makes it profitable to flat the 3b with super-premium hands in V2's spot.
As played, I think I like jamming although I do have a bias to fast-playing 2p. But if we don't fold, we are more or less committed either way and there are only four cards in the deck that improve the situation, and meanwhile draws can play more intelligently with more on the board. With low-stakes fish, hopefully at least one of the Vs decides to look us up with TPGK. Not thrilled about the possibility of running into sets here, but it seems like they will get the money from us anyway if we call and see a turn.
Preflop call is whatever the first time ... seems like a huge punt the second time.
Flop I don't mind anything, we are in position and raising kind of screams 44 or maybe Tx with hearts. Given V1 checks I'd assume KK-JJ that is going to fold no matter what you do, and maybe the two combos. of AA/TT ... a small chance he has AK and will raise if we just call.
What are the reads on how V2 is losing all night? Putting money in pre. and then folding? Or putting it in bad?
Agree with others that we should 3bet MP given profile (plus he's running bad). Could justify flatting if there were some weaker players in blinds.
It's probably a fold to BB's 3bet, given his profile, the 5.5x sizing, plus we're only 150bb.
As played, ship it. You should have a tone of combo draws in your range as well as maybe some Ax, so definitely can be called by worse. If you had reads that BB was folding and that MP was tilted and just stabbing/folding with his b30, then you could maybe justify flatting, but obviously you have to dodge a bunch of turns on which you might lose value from his bluffs/weak Ax.
I don't like raising the river lead by the preflop 3-bettor in the previous hand. It looks about like what he had, and not easy to get him to fold it.
Flatting initially is fine at 1/3. Not sure why you are worried the 3! would take it with ATs. Easy fold to 3!. Shove turn for about pot on wet board.
Result:
Spoiler
I just shove and they both fold
The preflop 3-bettor probably had JJ-KK, possibly a light 3!. V2 didn't have anything strong.
You can't flat call and let them both draw cheaply, and you might not get all the money in anyway. You could be shoving with a draw on this flop.
Hand 1 makes sense for you to raise really large on the river. If he had KK he would go bigger both turn and river, therefore you don't run into any brick walls and can just make him range fold by going 2x pot.
H l1 is interezting, turning tt i to a bluff, trying to get him to fold p0exactly jj or qq.
Didn't really look at HH1 other than to think he can call.
So:
Kh8c6s 5h 7h
flop: x, x
turn: cbet 1/3rd, call,
river: 1/4, and I raise pot, tank calls
H1 is interesting, turning TT into a bluff, trying to get him to fold exactly JJ or QQ.
Hmm, I'm not sure how true this is (that he has QQ/JJ often, or as a large part of the range). But then I would never take this line with QQ, at most I play it the same to the river and then check.
Also doubt that TTh is the best hand to use for H as a bluff, yes I understand it block T9 and Th is a heart, but I think we raise any 9.
Checking GTOwiz it's a bit problematic as CO vs. SB (raise/3bet/call pre.); SB never checks the flop but if we give them b35; call;
turn check; check;
SB then almost never leads the river (6.5% of the time for 10% pot) and QQ checks almost pure (~2.5% of donk shoving with Qh, lol).
CO then responds by checking TT.
CO bluffs look like:
the parts of JTs/54s that are left (maybe 15% of each)
-- this is problematic though as I don't see how non-heart JTs gets here with bet turn instead of flop.
the tiny amount of AQo that is left (nothing with a heart is left)
some of what is left of A5s.
Also super GTO weird that the ~30% of 77 that is left checks a lot (60-65%), but the ~15% of AKo that's left always bets.
I agree. I don't like turning TT into a bluff in H1. As I indicated, you are only trying to get QQ/JJ to fold, which it looks like he might have with his small bets. AK/AA are not going to fold.
Not looking to beat you up. Really trying to be helpful.
When you shove the flop, what worse hands do you expect to call? Count the combos of hands that are even somewhat likely to continue:
KThh, QThh, JThh, T9hh - 4 combos drawing to 9 outs.
AK, AQ, AJ - 24 combos drawing to 3 outs.
KQhh, KJhh, QJhh - 3 combos drawing to 12 outs.
Their combined ranges are heavily weighted towards combos that are drawing super-slim. It looks like a lot of hands we can target for value - 31 combos. But how often are they getting here the way they did with those hands, AND calling off a 5x over-bet jam?
In their places, would you call with AK, AQ, or AJ? Even if they have some AXs combo with the BD diamond draw, it's a tough call to make, when they unblock TT and 44.
Now think about all the other hands V2 might have that might stab for 1/3 pot, and turbo-fold when you jam. He could be betting a lot of AX, TX, and naked draws. He might occasionally be getting out of line with some PP with a heart in it.
Suppose he does have AX, TX, or some sort of draw, and we just click it back. Some of the hands he'd be stabbing with would want to make sure they see the river, and just jam. The rest are mostly going to call, unless he was stabbing with 99 or worse.
We'll be going to the turn with less than a 1/2 PSB remaining. We can just stick the rest in on most turns if V2 checks to us, and he's going to have a hard time folding, getting over 3:1. Imagine if he improves to a worse 2P on an off-suit card - he's never folding.
But if he's not calling often enough with AJ-AK, how often is he calling with worse AX? We're not giving ourselves a chance to cooler him when we over-bet jam. All we're doing is letting a lot of worse hands off the hook.
It just seems to me that we're leaving $300 on the table when we play our hand this way. Especially if we think a 3B pre generates too many folds. What does a 5x over-bet jam on the flop do, if not generate too many folds?
It is not a 5x overbet jam on the flop in the main hand. It is 5x the bet. It is less than a pot sized raise. The bet is 350 if hero calls, and hero shoves for another 325.
The shove represents a draw better than raising to 175, leaving 35% pot behind does. I don't like flat calling the 38% pot bet, letting both players see the turn cheaply on a wet board. Going to be difficult to play if the possible flush hits on the turn.
It is not a 5x overbet jam on the flop in the main hand. It is 5x the bet. It is less than a pot sized raise. The bet is 350 if hero calls, and hero shoves for another 325. The shove represents a draw better than raising to 175, leaving 35% pot behind does. I don't like flat calling the 38% pot bet, letting both players see the turn cheaply on a wet board. Going to be difficult
Correct - the jam is for 5x the bet. Hence, it's a 5x raise. It's also an over-bet of the pot, which had $275 in it when action gets to us, and a jam. Let's not get wrapped around the axle on the terminology we use, as that's beside the point.
It doesn't represent a draw to our villain if he his hand blocks our most likely draws. We can't have TXhh if V has TXhh. We can't have the NFD if he has it.
Our jam doesn't represent a draw here, when the PFR checks, and the MP player bets 1/3 pot. We look pretty nutted, when the PFR is uncapped, yet we're raising anyway. It looks like we flopped a set or 2P.
I didn't say we should flat. I said we should min-click it to $150, which sets up a less than PSB jam on the turn. The pot would be $500, with $225 behind. V may spaz and stick the rest in for us, if he thinks we're FOS, or he just wants to make sure he sees all five cards.
It won't be difficult to play turns when we're IP. If a K, Q, J or heart rolls off. V can come out and donk-jam if he makes his hand, and risk us folding, or he can check in flow, and risk us checking back.
If the turn is a brick, we can happily stack off. Doubtful he'll donk-jam if he makes 2P, when it looks like we may have flopped a set.
Other than the flush draw, the board isn't particularly wet. The flush gets there a very small % of the time. Flat and play the turn accordingly.
Board is wet with 2 broadway cards and a 2-flush.
You are all concerned everyone will fold and say a draw wouldn't push. Lots of possible combo draws, which should shove here.
I'm either/or to the original preflop decision, and think flatting is perfectly fine (as is 3betting). Seems like a trivial fold to the 3bet by this guy. He's actually sized his 3bet to exactly what I would do, offering horrendous 8:1 IO to ~setminers (let alone any other piece of cheese); he's simply printing getting calls here. Getting in a huge 15% of our stack preflop against this guy is horrible, imo.
I probably lean to a flat on the flop and hope to entice V1 along for one bet, and then get it in on the turn. We do risk scare cards slowing down the action, but I think it's ok.
Also, in HH hand it seems to me like TT is an easy fold to the turn bet unless we were always planning on attempting a steal on the river. I actually don't mind the river bluff attempt... which undoubtedly would have worked with my image, but your image... lol, I guess not so much? 😀
GgohomeBanana,you'redrunkG
