2028 ELECTION THREAD

I think newsome would be fine. But the messaging from the dems needs to change because they need to realize that latinos are conservative ish people who will end up listing to the GOP telling them that the dems will open up the borders if he were to win - irregardless of the fact that Biden deported more people than Trump.

Also there amount of maga chuds who wouldnt vote for Vance or Rubio because the charisma meter is a little lower is baaically zero, and probably lower than the votes they may pick up from conservatives who hate trump.

Anyone else is freerolling compared to trump.

To be absolutely clear, the only reason trump won twice is cuz the Dems insisted on truly detestable candidates against him and found a way to lose elections that shoulda been impossible to lose

Pivoting from Biden to Harris was an inexplicable decision for a thousand reasons, but literally anything was better than biden so the copium was high

Trump’s gains in Latino and black votes was cuz neither en masse were going to vote a woman into office. 4 years of this **** plus a reversion to a guy who isn’t completely ****ing braindead will almost certainly pull the base back

Nah. If he runs for president, he'll be running on "Common Sense Immigration Reform." He will run as just another milquetoast boilerplate Corporate Dem and have a 50/50 chance of winning the GE.

(Full disclosure: My predictions are always wrong.)

Dems probably win in that situation.

Although Vance will keep the vast majority of the MAGA folks and the "Never Trumper's" will vote for him.

Not that it matters but my post was bad and i rushed it while in a bad mood. I should of stated that i am just stating my opinion and that none of us can really be certain on why the results went the way they did.

I agree with some of this but i would be curious to hear peoples opinions on why they think someone other than trump would fare worse. I get that he beat out 20 or w/e in the primaries but it isnt all that convincing of an argument whn it was orchestrated as trump v field.

I sometimes feel like dems are messaging things towards people that dont really exist in large numbers and it would likely include some reasons that you may disagree with.

Talking who can win the primaries seems far more realistic than who would be favored in the GE

GE voting isn't for another 3.3 years, who knows what the country and economy will look like then. How it looks is obviously going to play a massive role in which party wins.

I'm not saying 1 of them isn't winning but man, I can't really picture Newsome or Vance as the next President.

Here is the clear and obvious counter to your post. Trump isn't just a politician, he's a cultural figure.

Yeah the GOP will rally around a Rubio or Vance (or DeSantis? he seems to be forgotten but he can't beat Vance in a primary? homeboy turned FL red in like 4 years) but the Rogan, Paul, random comedians, random athletes, random UFC fighters, random musicians aren't taking a second to support them. The vibe shift that Trump experienced last cycle just probably won't be there in 2028. Granted if the economy is largely seen as fine then may not be an issue for GOP but that is what I'd say the drawback is in a non-Trump world. 50 cent isn't rapping Many Men with a picture of JD vance at a concert. It isn't lit asf as the kids would say.

Maybe. But a vote still equals a vote no matter how lit it is. If Rogan or Paul or whoever decide that they don't care now because Daddy isn't running so who cares if a Dem wins, then I think you'd be correct. But I think we are a bit more partisan than that.

I think the reason that Maga loves trump is because they hate the dems so much and trump sends them to the insane asylum. I really doubt that those people are going to tune out enough to not even bother to vote against them.

The modern day GOP has become such an unrelenting shitshow that I would be more confident in the following names capturing the hearts and minds of MAGA and forcing the republicans to make them their nominee than milquetoast sycophants like Vance or Rubio:

1. Patel
2. Bongino
3. Laura ****ing Loomer

Republicans are more about selling out to the fringe and capitalizing on the fruits of their sellout to the best of their abilities than anything that even resembles governance. MAGA gave them a judiciary stranglehold we won’t be free of in our lifetimes and the shamelessness to gerrymander in plain sight cuz **** it you aren’t gonna stop us, why stop now

The fact that California needs a special election to push through what texas did with hot wheels getting his marching orders from fat orange is really the embodiment of one side trying to seek a moral high ground and the other side realizing there are no rules to prevent you from winning once you abandon morality

Which is why the Christian nationalist takeover of America is an inevitability

The day Vance mimes sucking a dick with his microphone I’ll agree with this. Til then you’re flat out wrong and ignoring what the lowest common denominator is looking for

It just won't be seen as "cool" by then, it already isn't. Rogan, Paul, Andrew Schulz, Tim Dillon. That whole lane is anti-establishment in nature, they're not going to back some basic GOP stooge but I don't see them backing some Trump knockoff either.

I guess the flip side to that coin is someone like Vance could do much better than Trump with basic normies who make 150-300% of median income in their area but voted for Harris last time because they didn't think she was a loon (and they largely did fine during Biden prez, especially last 2 years)

this obviously. it's already a lot if the anti trade position can be kept a little, and some nativist bent as well.

it will be MAGA-light at most from 2028 on. just business as usual for the most part federal society judges, pro corporation, slash regulations and welfare, law and order, regular right-wing Americans.

the market seems appreciating Newsom social media efforts. For sure, they got a ton of visibility.

Volumes start to be meaningful, so it shouldn't all be random noise and "for fun" bets

Wasn't this guy this guy all-in on supporting a former president backed by the world's richest man, and isn't he himself extremely wealthy as a result of hosting what is literally the world's most popular podcast? And while not knowing the rest of the names on your list, I'm guessing they swim in the same exceptionally powerful media and social media eco-system.

How the heck can that be considered "anti-establishment"? It would be near impossible to find something more established.

I'm starting to think it really doesn't matter if dems win even both houses at midterms. He owns the fbi, justice dept and the military now. A bunch of senators aren't going to keep him from doing anything he wants. He'll just have them tossed into prison.

Obviously Rogan and that whole sphere has a counter-culture bent to it. Yeah, all these people are rich and successful but they're also trend chasers. It became "cool" to like Trump last cycle in a way that I don't think it will with other GOP politicians going forward. Thus why I said I don't think Trumpism is necessarily repeatable.

That being said, someone seen as more steady/normal could counteract that by picking up high paid/high educated types that have peeled off to the Ds in the last 10-15 years.

I think you're just trying to make a post saying you think Trump is a fake populist and those who think he is any type of disruptor are being deceived, which is fine but kindof a different point altogether.

West Moore is my Obama 2.0 pick.

Mark Kelly is a bit of a surprise to me to be that low. However, none of Trump's "illegal oders" seems to be generating outrage and the US Military has morphed into Somalia pirates hijacking oil tankers.

I had the same thought about Wes Moore. He probably ticks the right boxes for viability, although I'm not convinced that he has the "it" factor that you need climb out of the pack in what I'm sure will be a crowded primary.

DJT as the fifth lowest odds is a huge testament to the perceived fragility of U.S. democratic norms.

IMO, the present distinction between the two parties is largely theatrical and we're in a state of perpetual decline in which we hand the baton back and forth between failing regimes.

After a half century of uninterrupted wealth concentration, we need to find a truly devastating rock bottom before the energy to move left emerges in the way that it did a century ago with FDR.

Anyone that corporate media points us to is testimony to their unfitness to arrest the downward spiral. Someone needs to come along with the balls to stick a fork in the era neoliberal economics. Newsom isn't that.

We've got a couple of years of developments in front of us before the landscape of 2028 emerges. The success or failure of a leftist like Mamdani is going to have some bearing on the momentum of progressives. Schumer's senate seat will be up from grabs in '28.

If mamdani does well in NY he'd be tough to beat if he ran - especially if the field looks at all like this.

For the Democratic nomination or the Presidency? The Democrats running a Muslim who is also a Democratic Socialist would result in one of the biggest Republican landslides in history.

What plays in New York City would not even play state wide. For that same reason, I think AOC 's odds are way too generous.

This is complete fantasy.

The nomination, but it's a hypothetical and I thought I added "if he could." I don't think AOC would have anywhere near the same success as Mamdani if we could magically test this. But obviously who the hell knows.