5/5/10 live: Tough river decision?

I guess it's a call in theory, you have a backdoor flush (2 flush blockers). However, I don't mind folding or calling based on reads / tells. He can have a set with spades, or the nut straight with a spade blocker. Or a set with a high spade?

Preflop I can see folding being a pretty good play with a hand like this single suited only if there are aggressive players behind that are likely to 3 bet.

What hands do you think you are winning against?

I think I'm winning against the hands you mentioned (nut straight that was slow playing/being cautious, ready to barrel if board paired or spade came, or set with a high spade). Though, on the drive home, I realized that I was blocking sets so maybe that does tilt this to a fold. I had no reads other than knowing he is capable of bluffing or making thin value bets.

he probably had it a higher flush.

I don't mind folding here as a default against an unknown player at 5 5

If he checks then I value bet a flush or some bluffs that you might have. What bluffs do you have on the river if he checks and you bet?

What if the river was a spade and you had the nut straight with one spade blocker? Are you value betting river, and if so, how much do you bet?

I'm folding, when he goes 50 pf he is unlikely to have AA already and then basically is never playing them this way postflop so much more likely he has some kind of AKJTds type hand that has turned the FD with it. Just not enough bluffs he can get to the river with to be bluffing

Pre shrug button is good enough. But be selective about hands that look close. Gaps at the top are much closer to fold.

Flop bet seems fine but could also go smaller because straight boards are less dynamic and its mw.

On turn, you have options. First is to play your hand as a fourliner straight and bet half pot. Second, play your hand as a bluff, denying equity with B100, because you have a hand full of blockers. Third, check back your middling straight.

I think second option is probably worst because you deny some equity but block his hands you want to fold (middle set, combo draws through top pair) and don't get much same/better to fold, if any.

I think third option is better than first because you have position for playing rivers. Ensure money goes in when you make a boat. Bluff big when the other cards pair. Checkback or bluffcatch on spade rivers.

As played, given that you bet twice and still blocking top of flop, your bluffcatcher isn't quite as good but I think I'd still find a call most of the time. He's a huge favorite to have the As in hand. Although LucidDream makes a nice point about SB only minclicked pre, that size still makes sense with AA, reopening the action for the wild player and making some big 5bets if raised.

What AAxx with dry As gets to the river like this c/c twice? We block with 99 so it's unlikely he has a straight that is now turning itself into a bluff. I just can't see how he gets to the river with the dry As/Ks and is now gonna be bluffing very often esp if he does somehow have a 9 high straight

With 4 to a straight on board there's going to be lots and lots of straights and chops and therefore plenty of incentive to rep the backdoor flush.

I think he gets here with a lot of straights looking to push you off a chop, moreso than flushes, combos of which he shouldn't have many. I pay off here, probably not 100%, probably flick in the call like 75% of the time

Ranges are also wider and thus bluffing and thin vbets more common by virtue of the presence of the laggro lady

I guess pre is supposed to be a fold the first time round in solver land but I tend not to drive to get to a live game so that I can fold hands like this on the button, certainly not 400bb deep

@wazz what hands do you think he is CIB 3b with that make a straight turned into bluff? Almost for sure not the bottom end as the description says he's an aggro pro but not necessarily spewing. We block the bigger straights which would be more of the range he could do this with including 98/96 combos making those rundowns unlikely. And as played T9 is pretty unlikely as well

Seems pretty reasonable we can be looking at some kind of AKJTds/KQJTds/etc hand with 1 or 2 bdfd that's peeling for the gutter this deep

I'm much more with you on calling if we have a single 9 rather than two of them and don't also block the rundowns he can have when he seemingly never has T9 as played

Thank you all for the comments. I found them very helpful and as there was some friendly disagreement, it does make me feel a bit better that it was a tough decision.

I did end up sigh calling. SB had AJ95 double suited, of course with nut spades. He flopped the 2nd nut straight, with BDNFD and nut gutshot and therefore called my flop bet. He was intending to fold on a blank turn if I double barreled but picked up too much equity when it was a spade.

Well given pf small 3b he can certainly have some stuff like JT98/7. However I think your avg aggro reg/pro that 3b it is often not checking flop with it as the 3b bc "how can I have it" or if they do they are often c/r flop. Obv we are deep tho so if he did chk it he may not c/r it always

The other thing I see a lot at midstakes is when people do hit the BD flush they like to lead out a fair bit rather than chk it. IME only the best players will even check the nut flush here a good % and will usually just lead out instead. I only really expect to see T9 turning itself to a bluff to push us off a chop vs the best pros and recs that I see overbluffing a lot of spots everywhere