2024 Fantasy Football Thread

Ouch. I drafted a little with Darnold before the Horton steam but haven’t taken him in a while.

I stopped taking him a few weeks ago .

The dip was fun while it lasted. No IR for Mooney.

Him avoiding IR is great news.

Meanwhile, life comes at you fast.

Spoiler

Show

$3 $1.5 mil with the Mooney fall.

Also drafted a Milly.

Pretty happy with both.

Yep, both look good.

Accidentally entered a KOTD slow a while back, and put it on auto.

Pretty crazy the amount of correlation I got so far without making a single pick. Just need to hope it autos JJM at the 10/11 turn and then need to get lucky at RB.

Edit: and for Jennings to not be ded

Spoiler

Show

Blueprint for a fun 2-6-8-2 or 2-7-7-2 build.

1. Thru 9 rounds, start with 1-3-5-0 (QB1 should be Allen, Lamar, Jayden, Hurts, or Mahomes)

2. Round 10 - Get a 4th RB or 6th WR.

3. Rounds 11 and 12 - Double tap TE

4. Round 13 - Get your QB, preferably one that's stacked.

5. Use the rest of your picks on high upside RBs and WRs

Actually slight revision.

Rounds 11-13 should be getting a QB, a TE, and then the opposite of whatever you took in Round 10 (if you took a RB, then get a WR and vice versa)

I don't know how this team doesn't make it to the finals.

QB) Hurts, Herbert

RB) Bucky, Skattebo, Bigsby, Najee, Allgeier, Shipley.

WR) Chase, McConkey, Tet, Deebo, Jeudy, Coleman, Keondre Lambert Smith.

TE) Engram, Taylor, Fanning.

You know I don't like Skat, but the rest looks good.

Guillotine, I think I messed up not taking Breece/Conner in the 3rd

Format is qb/2rb/2wr/2flex/te

.5ppr

I’m assuming skipping onesies in a 16 teamer is optimal even while trying to maintain a floor, but I think I needed to start 3-4 RBs and I’m only starting 2

Spoiler

Show

Thielen to Minnesota. The rumors all offseason have been shockingly accurate

I've only got 4 Thielen teams on UD. None with with JJM, but I do have one stacked with Mason, another with LaPorta, and one with JJ and LaPorta.

2% on DK, but no idea what those teams look like.

Yeah, there was a lot of steam. Thielen and his wife really wanted it. The Vikings obviously wanted it. And the Panthers just wanted decent comp, which they certainly got.

I'm not sure this situation is any better for Thielen, and it's likely worse, as the Vikings WR group is certainly better than the Panthers. I'd like to think he may have the chance for a good game or two with Addison suspended, but he has a lot of catching up to do in the next week and a half, not to mention never having played with JJM.

The real winner is the cokehead! It's also good for Tet and XL, in that one less good target earner to share with.

Yeah, I'd probably have attacked RB harder for the early game, but that's a solid group of WRs. I'd definitely devalue TE/QB, since there will be plenty of teams starting average to bad players at those positions, and you'll be able to recover once teams start to be eliminated.

The biggest loser are my Felton shares. I was going to start hammering him after Lucky Jackson was cut. Glad I waited.

Last pointer team

Hurts, Kyler

Saquon, Bucky, Tracy, Tuten, Brooks

MHJ, Smith, Olave, Jennings, Kirk, Doubs, Horton, ADM

Ferguson, Ertz, Fannin

Hmmmmm? I have never played in a guilotine before but am gonna try a couple this year. I stopped playing Yahoo public leagues about 10 years ago. Not a fan of the format with only 7 skill positions at QB/2RB/2WR/TE/Flex (also K and DST).

But my head is telling me that QB and TE need to be overvalued. I am a serial "waiter" on both TE and QB in my normal leagues that have 10 skill positions rather than the 7 in the Yahoo leagues. Makes me think QB and TE are "too big" a percentage to even minorly punt. My plan is to fill out all 7 starting skill positions in the first 7 picks which I wouldn't even consider in a normal league. I think "depth" takes a huge backseat in this format since each week lots of "depth" will be hitting the wire.

Key is too at least survive the first few weeks which means having no holes in your starters. Luck will be huge in these leagues but managing the fab and wire will be most important. I think you need to put yourself in the best possible position to survive the first few weeks which tells me I should OVERVALUE QB/TE and avoid getting stuck with a dud. I am more anxious to take QB early here rather than in my 2 QB league 😀

I've only playing Guillotine twice, and it was a while ago. So I could be completely incorrect about that theory, but you only need to be better than 1 team each week. Floor is only important in that sense, and when you're chasing floor instead of ceiling, it typically backfires. Floor is mostly a -ev mirage in fantasy, imo, even in this structure.

While the initial depth isn't as important, by the time you fill out your top 7 starting skill positions, most of the TEs/QBs remaining will be about the same from a weekly projection standpoint. You want to save FAAB as much as possible, so I still think depth matters, especially as injuries and byes start to hit. You want to be the team controlling waivers with more FAAB than anyone else in the endgame, so treat it like gold. Which also means you're going to have to take some gambles, but who cares if you're the 3rd team eliminated or the 12th team eliminated? You lose either way.

I expect the wire to still be pretty thin on skill players for the first half of the season, as all of the quality players are picked up. And then you start hitting the point where good startable players are still on the wire, because no one has room on their roster. Outside of the elite QBs/TEs, most teams won't be attacking those positions on waivers.

You could lock in QB/TE after you have your top 7 skill spots, but in a one week sample, how much different is Tucker Kraft than Zach Ertz? How much different is Jordan Love than Michael Penix? Especially for the purposes of this type of league. I think you either overvalue and take the elite QB/TE or mostly punt. If I was going to only do 1, it'd certainly be elite QB. But it's such a big opportunity cost at RB/WR.

My point was to take all of the skill value, and then as teams are eliminated, QBs/TEs will become available. With only a few at each position separating, playing matchups/opportunity will be more important.

I'm also assuming (probably a big assumption to assume rational drafting) no other team is going to draft 2 QBs or 2 TEs, so at 16 total teams, that still leaves half the league available.

Also, Rashee to the moon! I backed off drafting the last few weeks, since I was already overweight. But the first 6 games is a big win. I'll sprinkle him in a little bit the rest of the way.

I did take him at 81 in a Marathon slow yesterday. Cha ching!

You didn't like Skat before the injury? I took him because I waited on second RB. I knew he was healthy and wanted an upside guy knowing my number two was lacking. I also knew I was gonna go with at least 6 RB's.

Yep I'll be drafting him non-stop in the 4th now.

Sucks that I've got him in 3 of my 7 1st Q teams. I guess it's good that in all 3, he's paired with Worthy or Hollywood.